Estimate GT Sport sales

[Scaff]

CAN you tell a free man, on a free and quite progressive forum that he can't make any statement he honestly believes in?

It is your/mine freedom to express arguments to contrary and even point them out strongly. Or even asertively, to a point ofc...
BUT that one is not even allowed to make a statement on a forum, without citations that would often involve bussines or scientific degrees can (maybe in other cases not this) be against forum policies?

Not at all, and nor have I done so.

It can be expressed as a view, an opinion, a belief, a possibility without anything to back it up at all.

However to claim it as a fact would assume some form of supporting evidence. Evidence that would not require a business degree of any form, simply a source from PD saying that SCE cover all development costs.

 

[Imari]

CAN you tell a free man, on a free and quite progressive forum that he can't make any statement he honestly believes in?

He can make the statement, but he can't make it as fact because it can't demonstrate that it is one.

Or would you like to come and see my totally factual pink invisible dragon that lives in my garage? I call him Elmer.

 

[AH49]

Was just reading Neogaf.

A thread asking "Has Sony mismanaged the Gran Turismo franchise? If so, why?" garnered 4 pages of replies in a couple of hours, both positive and negative. Interestingly a number who claim to have no interest in GT Sport are the most active. By comparison the main PCars 2 thread has 2 pages of comments over the past (launch) week.

Not reading anything into it, just anecdotal evidence of Gran Turismo's star power in attracting discussion. Uncharted's another franchise that attracts such polar opposite views on forums ("walking simulator" etc.). Franchises who's appeal is far stronger in mainstream culture than hardcore forums.

 

[queleuleu]

Was just reading Neogaf.

A thread asking "Has Sony mismanaged the Gran Turismo franchise? If so, why?" garnered 4 pages of replies in a couple of hours, both positive and negative. Interestingly a number who claim to have no interest in GT Sport are the most active. By comparison the main PCars 2 thread has 2 pages of comments over the past (launch) week.

Not reading anything into it, just anecdotal evidence of Gran Turismo's star power in attracting discussion. Uncharted's another franchise that attracts such polar opposite views on forums ("walking simulator" etc.). Franchises who's appeal is far stronger in mainstream culture than hardcore forums.

Gran Turismo, as a brand, is much more than a racing game. IMO, a good GT like the old ones would still be a best seller even if racing games are now almost a niche genre. And I agree with many of them, this brand has so much potential but so mismanaged.

 

[ImaRobot]

Was just reading Neogaf.

A thread asking "Has Sony mismanaged the Gran Turismo franchise? If so, why?" garnered 4 pages of replies in a couple of hours, both positive and negative. Interestingly a number who claim to have no interest in GT Sport are the most active. By comparison the main PCars 2 thread has 2 pages of comments over the past (launch) week.

Not reading anything into it, just anecdotal evidence of Gran Turismo's star power in attracting discussion. Uncharted's another franchise that attracts such polar opposite views on forums ("walking simulator" etc.). Franchises who's appeal is far stronger in mainstream culture than hardcore forums.

That's not necessarily a thing tied to PD or GTS specifically, but usually games that are the most popular within a genre. It happens quite often, and you notice it to a degree with people and how they view Forza or Pcars on this forum. There are tons of people here who have no interest in Forza whatsoever, and likely don't even own an Xbox, yet they're the most vocal about it. It's also not unexpected that GT has much more brand awareness, popularity, and activity compared to a game that's barely on it's second iteration, compared to PD's decades worth of games.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Was just reading Neogaf.

A thread asking "Has Sony mismanaged the Gran Turismo franchise? If so, why?" garnered 4 pages of replies in a couple of hours, both positive and negative. Interestingly a number who claim to have no interest in GT Sport are the most active. By comparison the main PCars 2 thread has 2 pages of comments over the past (launch) week.

Not reading anything into it, just anecdotal evidence of Gran Turismo's star power in attracting discussion. Uncharted's another franchise that attracts such polar opposite views on forums ("walking simulator" etc.). Franchises who's appeal is far stronger in mainstream culture than hardcore forums.

Really odd that a thread entitled, "Has giant gaming company mismanaged X franchise?" would attract so many responses in such a short time. Usually those threads are the inactive ones that everyone avoids because there's nothing to say. Not reading anything into it though.

 

[Rinsky]

I've voted 2 mill and here is my take on this.
The GT franchise has decided to do a complete 180 from the very thing that made them who they are. Will it work?? I say no.. because they are focused on such a small group of people who play this game now.
Online only play is not what the majority of people who own a console or looking for.. computers are a different story. Online play should be offered in every game but I think it should never be the only focus. There is a reason most hardcore Gamers stay on computers and most casual gamers stay on console.

Next they are putting so much emphasis on this online FIA license. While it sounds cool it's absolutely pointless because out of all the people who will play this game under 1% will ever utilize that feature. How many of you once you get your license have several hundred thousand dollars to go race and compete in the real world???
Even at the lowest levels of racing like Figure 8 cost a fortune.

Gran Turismo's name alone does have a huge following but I don't think that automatically adds up to huge sales anymore because with the access to today's social media and internet at your fingertips everyone knows exactly what they are getting and aren't going in and buying it blindly.
This is just how I feel right or wrong only time will tell. I really wanted to like it I just hope there's a traditional GT7 in the future.

 

[GT6mebe]

Was just reading Neogaf.

A thread asking "Has Sony mismanaged the Gran Turismo franchise? If so, why?" garnered 4 pages of replies in a couple of hours, both positive and negative. Interestingly a number who claim to have no interest in GT Sport are the most active. By comparison the main PCars 2 thread has 2 pages of comments over the past (launch) week.

Not reading anything into it, just anecdotal evidence of Gran Turismo's star power in attracting discussion. Uncharted's another franchise that attracts such polar opposite views on forums ("walking simulator" etc.). Franchises who's appeal is far stronger in mainstream culture than hardcore forums.

The more popular something is, the more attention it will get and consequently more love and hate.

 

[trustjab]

Arguing over this is a pretty silly thing to do imo. Though I do enjoy seeing other's opinions on the subject. I think with the holiday season coming up, black Friday and these bundles, GTS may surprise. GT6 is not a good example for arguing GTS's sales either, imo. I would say the first GT game on a Playstation console is a better one. Whether it meets, exceeds or fails to match the numbers is unknown, yet history shows that the first GT game on a new (or current generation) Playstation is a good seller. But then you can say "GT2 and GT4 were huge sellers as well and they were sequels on the same console". I think part of that reason is PS2 and PS3 weren't out yet, respectively.

GT4 is my favorite GT game yet. The atmosphere of it including the background sounds and the menu sound effects and the music... they were nearly perfect to me. I feel GTS has that atmosphere going for it. Little things like Seagulls at Dragon Trail, or crowd noise and the announcer on the loudspeaker- that's what gives me the GT4 feel again. You felt immersed in it. Something that wasn't as prevalent on GT5 and GT6 that I see coming back again. Little things like that make GT what it is. If you're a GT fan, you know what I'm talking about. That 'feeling' a GT game gives you. Other racing games may do things better or have more 'realism' but nothing is like a GT. It's like buying a new pair of shoes but you end up going back to those classic Air Force 1's or something. It has that 'feel'. That's what separates GT from the rest, and that's why I see guys close to twice my age on my PSN buying and preordering it.

 

[AH49]

I've voted 2 mill and here is my take on this.......

We can discuss top end lifetime figures for GT Sport, but it's not nearly as difficult to put a minimum figure on it.

Driveclub launched to awful reviews, broken online (which took 3 months to fix), and mass confusion over a "free" PS+ version. 11 months after launch - July 2015 - it officially passed 2m sales, and now sits closer to 2.5m. As a 1st party title it featured heavily in official bundling and discounts. At this time the PS4 userbase was around 30m.

Gran Turismo is a franchise of magnitudes higher worldwide profile, will feature heavily in marketing promotions - TV, Champions League, celeb endorsements - and be a core part of Sony's system bundling in Europe and Asia. It's launching in PS4's peak year, with almost 75m sold by years end, and an expectation it will go well beyond 100m. With another 40m+ consoles to sell GT Sport will be one of the core titles used in bundling and deals for the rest of the gen. A baseline of 6m lifetime sales looks reasonable.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Driveclub was a new franchise. Once it was given away to Plus it only cost £11.99 for the season pass. By then it was very good.

GT on the other hand has thrown away all its well built reputation in the PS3 era. I doubt anyone will be fooled again by this again after GT6.

It will sell on online racers and esport players yes, but there's nothing here for anyone else.

 

[AH49]

Driveclub was a new franchise. Once it was given away to Plus it only cost £11.99 for the season pass. By then it was very good.

GT on the other hand has thrown away all its well built reputation in the PS3 era. I doubt anyone will be fooled again by this again after GT6.

It will sell on online racers and esport players yes, but there's nothing here for anyone else.

Once Driveclub was given away (in part) on Plus it had already passed 2m.

I never owned GT6 as I'd long since moved focus to PS4 (sold PS3 months before launch). Neither have I ever took part in esports, I only casually race online as it's far more rewarding than AI competition. My major gripes with previous GT's were sound, lack of a livery editor, and a general lack of focus. But my points raised above are about the business case, the marketing and sheer weight of numbers in terms of hardware. On PS4 no sim has yet nailed what really matters in the console market, exceptional controller support and slick, bug free, AAA quality presentation.

 

[hejustsits]

Driveclub was a new franchise. Once it was given away to Plus it only cost £11.99 for the season pass. By then it was very good.

GT on the other hand has thrown away all its well built reputation in the PS3 era. I doubt anyone will be fooled again by this again after GT6.

It will sell on online racers and esport players yes, but there's nothing here for anyone else.

A brief look on wikipedia would tell you that it was reviewed very positively by every major video game reviewer out there (80/90%, 8-9/10). It might not have been what you wanted but it's reputation is very much intact. As I'm sure you know, gtplanet opinion =/= general public/gaming world opinion.

 

[FPV MIC]

Driveclub was a new franchise. Once it was given away to Plus it only cost £11.99 for the season pass. By then it was very good.

GT on the other hand has thrown away all its well built reputation in the PS3 era. I doubt anyone will be fooled again by this again after GT6.

It will sell on online racers and esport players yes, but there's nothing here for anyone else.

What about Campaign Mode, Arcade Mode, Livery Editor and what will most likely be the best photography modes of the current console generation. Maybe not for you, but I don't think you should say anyone.

 

[Tired Tyres]

What about Campaign Mode, Arcade Mode, Livery Editor and what will most likely be the best photography modes of the current console generation. Maybe not for you, but I don't think you should say anyone.

Campaign Mode is licence test mode. Arcade Mode has total pushover AI. In my view neither the Livery Editor or photo modes, both of which look excellent, are in any way reason to buy a racing game.

A brief look on wikipedia would tell you that it was reviewed very positively by every major video game reviewer out there (80/90%, 8-9/10). It might not have been what you wanted but it's reputation is very much intact. As I'm sure you know, gtplanet opinion =/= general public/gaming world opinion.

Wikipedia! That says it all.

 

[FPV MIC]

Campaign Mode is licence test mode. Arcade Mode has total pushover AI. In my view neither the Livery Editor or photo modes, both of which look excellent, are in any way reason to buy a racing game.

Your view is not the same as mine (or probably many others for that matter) so I'm still uncertain as to how you can say "It will sell on online racers and esport players yes, but there's nothing here for anyone else". I enjoy license tests, and unless you've played the release version I'm not sure how you can judge the AI or know the depth of Arcade Mode . Photo and Replay Modes are also fairly popular these days and have their own subculture, and I would hazard a guess that the Livery Editor will do the same. Just because certain things aren't a reason for purchase for you doesn't mean the same can be said for others, even in an racing game.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Your view is not the same as mine (or probably many others for that matter) so I'm still uncertain as to how you can say "It will sell on online racers and esport players yes, but there's nothing here for anyone else". I enjoy license tests, and unless you've played the release version I'm not sure how you can judge the AI or know the depth of Arcade Mode . Photo and Replay Modes are also fairly popular these days and have their own subculture, and I would hazard a guess that the Livery Editor will do the same. Just because certain things aren't a reason for purchase for you doesn't mean the same can be said for others, even in an racing game.

Your quite right. Your view is not the same as mine. Everyone has their own view. You express yours, I express mine. We'll know in the fullness of time if this game is a success or not.

However, a sub culture built on any element is not a majority position. Minorities do not sell multi millions. You need the casuals for that, and I will say again, there is nothing in this for the bulk of them.

 

[FPV MIC]

Your quite right. Your view is not the same as mine. Everyone has their own view. You express yours, I express mine. We'll know in the fullness of time if this game is a success or not.

However, a sub culture built on any element is not a majority position. Minorities do not sell multi millions. You need the casuals for that, and I will say again, there is nothing in this for the bulk of them.

Again??? I've seen no mention before. Maybe you should have said nothing for the bulk instead of nothing here for anyone in the first place

And I think it will be about the same sales wise as GT6, 6 million over time. Whether it's a success is not for me to judge, that's up to those with a far more vested interest.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Again??? I've seen no mention before. Maybe you should have said nothing for the bulk instead of nothing here for anyone in the first place

And I think it will be about the same sales wise as GT6, 6 million over time. Whether it's a success is not for me to judge, that's up to those with a far more vested interest.

Perhaps I should have. GT6 was reduced to half price and less very quickly indeed. I doubt very much indeed that it met Sony's projections.

 

[hejustsits]

Wikipedia! That says it all.

So I should trust what you say, rather than a whole paragraph with facts and sources? Pfft

The fact that it let you down doesn't mean that it let the gaming world down. I, and millions of others loved it, and if you consider GT6 a failure then I hope that GTS fails too.

 

[Tired Tyres]

So I should trust what you say, rather than a whole paragraph with facts and sources? Pfft

The fact that it let you down doesn't mean that it let the gaming world down. I, and millions of others loved it.

Wikipedia & Facts on things like this have nothing in common with each other. Seriously.

Metacritic is at least more likely to produce something vaguely reliable. Lets see.... 81 for GT6. As apposed to 96 for GT, 93 for GT2, 95 for GT3, 89 for GT4 and 84 for GT5.

 

[hejustsits]

Wikipedia & Facts on things like this have nothing in common with each other. Seriously.

Metacritic is at least more likely to produce something vaguely reliable. Lets see.... 81 for GT6. As apposed to 96 for GT, 93 for GT2, 95 for GT3, 89 for GT4 and 84 for GT5.

To me 81 out of 100 doesn't constitute 'throwing away it's hard earned reputation', but if it does for you then fair enough I guess.

 

[Famine]

A brief look on wikipedia would tell you that it was reviewed very positively by every major video game reviewer out there (80/90%, 8-9/10).

Wikipedia! That says it all.

Wikipedia & Facts on things like this have nothing in common with each other. Seriously.

Metacritic is at least more likely to produce something vaguely reliable. Lets see.... 81 for GT6.

So Metacritic also shows 80/90%, 8-9/10 then?

Also worth noting is that Metacritic shows 65 positive reviews, 16 mixed reviews and 0 negative reviews. That would also seem to largely agree with this:

A brief look on wikipedia would tell you that it was reviewed very positively by every major video game reviewer

Although it depends on what you consider a "major" reviewer, as OPM, Edge and GameSpot are all in the mixed section.


Like it or not, GT6 was largely well-received in the gaming press - in fact it was more of a critical success than a sales success. I think Sony/PD would happily have it the other way round though!

 

[Imari]

I think part of that reason is PS2 and PS3 weren't out yet, respectively.

Yes, that revolutionary thinking of releasing your game on the most up to date hardware really worked wonders for them. It really showed those devs that were still releasing on the Commodore 64 how flawed their thinking was.

On PS4 no sim has yet nailed what really matters in the console market, exceptional controller support and slick, bug free, AAA quality presentation.

This is true. But on the rival console (and on PC) such games exist, so you'll probably find that the core gamers will have jumped ship by now. The main audience left for GTS on PS4 seems to be those who just want a decent, simple racing game. Unfortunately, GTS doesn't really seem to fill that niche in quite the same way as GT used to. Dedicated online competitive motorsports game isn't quite the same animal as sprawling build-your-own zero to hero car adventure.

A brief look on wikipedia would tell you that it was reviewed very positively by every major video game reviewer out there (80/90%, 8-9/10). It might not have been what you wanted but it's reputation is very much intact. As I'm sure you know, gtplanet opinion =/= general public/gaming world opinion.

A brief look at Metacritic would tell you that it's significantly the worst Gran Turismo ever reviewed, sitting alongside such solid racing games as Grid 2, Shift 2: Unleashed, and the original Project CARS. Games that were totally considered to be positively reviewed, and absolutely did not do any damage to their respective brands.

http://www.metacritic.com/browse/games/genre/metascore/racing/all?view=condensed&page=0

To me 81 out of 100 doesn't constitute 'throwing away it's hard earned reputation', but if it does for you then fair enough I guess.

Game scoring doesn't work like real numbers do. Anything below a 7 is basically unplayable. 7 is borderline acceptable if you love the genre and are willing to put up with a lot of BS. 8 is mediocre to average. 9 is a good game. 10 is you should buy this no matter what.

It's a mildly insane way of using numbers, but it is what it is. 8/10 is not a particularly good score in gaming language, especially not with historical Gran Turismos and Forzas hovering around 9/10.

 

[AH49]

The more a driving title caters for the sim audience the less reviewer friendly it is.

Dumb down your handling model, add wacky tracks for spectacle, thunder and lightning, 'cool' trackside objects......all will give you a few extra points on metacritic. For me, all those things would drastically reduce the appeal of Gran Turismo. This generation it's also clear reviewers are far harsher with review scores in general, which just shows how arbitrary the whole thing is. You can only judge by your own standards. For me Assetto Corsa and Driveclub are the best driving titles this gen.

 

[GT6mebe]

GT on the other hand has thrown away all its well built reputation in the PS3 era.

Citation needed. Sounds like more wishful thinking from GT detractors.

I doubt anyone will be fooled again by this again after GT6.

lmao

 

[lancia delta hf]

Driveclub was a new franchise. Once it was given away to Plus it only cost £11.99 for the season pass. By then it was very good.

GT on the other hand has thrown away all its well built reputation in the PS3 era. I doubt anyone will be fooled again by this again after GT6.

It will sell on online racers and esport players yes, but there's nothing here for anyone else.

People have short memories though, especially when shiny graphics are waved in front of their eyes. What is for certain though is that GT is no longer on the tips of every PlayStation owners tongue, that's how/why sales may not be what PDI are expecting.

 

[Johnnypenso]

The more a driving title caters for the sim audience the less reviewer friendly it is.

Dumb down your handling model, add wacky tracks for spectacle, thunder and lightning, 'cool' trackside objects......all will give you a few extra points on metacritic. For me, all those things would drastically reduce the appeal of Gran Turismo. This generation it's also clear reviewers are far harsher with review scores in general, which just shows how arbitrary the whole thing is. You can only judge by your own standards. For me Assetto Corsa and Driveclub are the best driving titles this gen.

Then how do you explain the latest version of Project Cars scoring in the mid-to-high 80s on Metacritic the last time I looked?

 

[sems4arsenal]

People have short memories though, especially when shiny graphics are saved in front of their eyes. What is for certain though is that GT is no longer on the tips of every PlayStation owners tongue, that's how/why sales may not be what PDI are expecting.

What's your source on the last statement?

 

[skazz]

All this talk of costs to run PD studio, but I didn't see anyone estimating licensing costs. Actually, that is probably a good bit lower for GTS than any recent GT game, with so few real life tracks and cars.

Personally I voted 3 million due to the expectation that a predominantly multiplayer car racing game is much more niche than a car collecting game. But I will happily agree that if Sony can market it as having enough of a single player capability it might drag in plenty more sales (as long as potential buyers don't dig too deep to realize that the single player game right now is simply a set of license tests, not the GT usual car collecting and tuning RPG). And of course if Sony bundles GTS with the PS4 at an interesting price then sales will be inflated.

Anyone know how many PS4-Pro consoles make up the total user base?