Estimate GT Sport sales

[dbarrade]

Given the sales disparity between those three franchises, that's actually a pretty good result for Forza and PCars.

@Johnnypenso (and everyone else in this thread ) Only that isn't the graph for the three franchises that's the graph for the latest game in the three franchises... you know, the one everyone keeps saying is irrelevant and outdated, looks like a PS2 game and doesn't have enough cars or tracks, and wont sell as much as PCars 2 or Forza 7... and we haven't seen it start to spike yet before the imminent release...

 

[Scaff]

@Johnnypenso (and everyone else in this thread ) Only that isn't the graph for the three franchises that's the graph for the latest game in the three franchises... you know, the one everyone keeps saying is irrelevant and outdated, looks like a PS2 game and doesn't have enough cars or tracks, and wont sell as much as PCars 2 or Forza 7... and we haven't seen it start to spike yet before the imminent release...

I'm fairly certain the only one of those that everyone has said is that it has less cars and tracks than PC2 or Forza 7.

I've not seen anyone say it looks like a PS2 title or that it will sell less, most acknowledge that it's amazing looking and will sell well (if it will sell as well as past GT titles is a discussion point, but a different one).

Now if it's irrelevant is a subjective point, outdated however is again not a term I have seen used either.

As such it would be appreciated if in future you could temper your inflammatory posts with a little more fact.

 

[queleuleu]

Wishful thinking. Your projections are getting funnier by the day.

See you in a few months

 

[dbarrade]

@Scaff, sorry, I felt I was tempering my previous couple of almost fact only posts with something a little more emotive, but when I say "everyone" I was thinking of Youtube, NeoGaf and other mainstream gaming websites where GT Sport gets more derogatory comments than any game deserves. Comments here and moderation are mostly factual and are a pleasure to read. I didn't intend to be inflammatory.

I was pretty sure I had seen outdated used here a few times and I believe a lot of posts imply it:

...Now, I can't overlook the awful crash physic at turn 1. It makes the game so dated, I can't find another game with a collision engine that ridiculous. I don't expect explosions and rollovers but it hurts the racing aspect so much. ...

Biggest marketing support, but probably the most outdated and the smallest car list

Lighting and shaders are what makes the vegetation in modern games look good and realistic. Those old RPG trees are very outdated by today's standards. I'm not sure why you would want those in GTS.

Sorry, maybe I have become jaded from recently reading clickbait / fanboy posts on youtube etc:

Gran Turismo Sport Beta looks laughably dated
https://www.gamefaqs.com/boards/691087-playstation-4/75344084

The comments on the Digital Foundry youtube:


I was also thinking about your concern that Polyphony haven't partnered with anyone familiar with eSports, but I believe Sony have had considerable experience and some success in that arena. I would imagine they would bring that to Polyphony?

https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/389888094

This eSports Logitech job might be related as well:

https://www.linkedin.com/jobs/view/...205-b274-c819fd615d4b&trk=job_view_browse_map

 

[Johnnypenso]

@Johnnypenso (and everyone else in this thread ) Only that isn't the graph for the three franchises that's the graph for the latest game in the three franchises... you know, the one everyone keeps saying is irrelevant and outdated, looks like a PS2 game and doesn't have enough cars or tracks, and wont sell as much as PCars 2 or Forza 7... and we haven't seen it start to spike yet before the imminent release...

And? Not sure what that has to do with my comment. Also, since my name is specifically mentioned, please quote where I said the game is irrelevant, outdated and looks like a PS2 (or even PS3) game.

 

[GT6mebe]

PCars was crowd funded and independently produced and sold 2.5 million copies with no bundling or promotion from Sony or Microsoft. DriveClub and FH3 were both over 2 million as I recall.

PCars was on 3 platforms bear in mind and iirc 2 million sales. DC was on PSN+. FH3 did well for its franchise but these really show how racing has become kind of niche. In the PS1/2 days it was a big genre such that nearly every publisher wanted a racer to be put out. I think whats really let down the genre is arcade racing which hasn't lived up to expectations.

Those are great numbers for games with small budgets but not so great for a big budget AAA studio like PD or T10. This tells me there is still huge potential in this genre for the right type of game and lots of success to be had, especially by smaller, more targeted offerings.

PD have 200 employees and are 1st party. GT5 was bloated with costs and was $60 million, something PD would break even from in around 2 million sales.

See you in a few months

Ahh yes, with your ever so informed prediction of GTS selling 1 million units
Its clear there is very little logic behind your thoughts, just a projected hatred.

 

[Scaff]

PCars was on 3 platforms bear in mind and iirc 2 million sales. DC was on PSN+. FH3 did well for its franchise but these really show how racing has become kind of niche. In the PS1/2 days it was a big genre such that nearly every publisher wanted a racer to be put out. I think whats really let down the genre is arcade racing which hasn't lived up to expectations.



PD have 200 employees and are 1st party. GT5 was bloated with costs and was $60 million, something PD would break even from in around 2 million sales.



Ahh yes, with your ever so informed prediction of GTS selling 1 million units
Its clear there is very little logic behind your thoughts, just a projected hatred.

Are you suggesting that PD made $30 profit from every copy of GT5?

I think a citation is required for a 50% profit margin getting back to the developer.

Oh and play the ball not the man.

 

[queleuleu]

PCars was on 3 platforms bear in mind and iirc 2 million sales. DC was on PSN+. FH3 did well for its franchise but these really show how racing has become kind of niche. In the PS1/2 days it was a big genre such that nearly every publisher wanted a racer to be put out. I think whats really let down the genre is arcade racing which hasn't lived up to expectations.



PD have 200 employees and are 1st party. GT5 was bloated with costs and was $60 million, something PD would break even from in around 2 million sales.



Ahh yes, with your ever so informed prediction of GTS selling 1 million units
Its clear there is very little logic behind your thoughts, just a projected hatred.

Oops, just a misclick. I think it will be around 2 or 3 million. And I'm not your enemy I just don't care how many copies they will sell. At the end, it's not my money and GT is still my favorite franchise. TBH, there are so many things missing in GTSport that used to make GT a best seller, that's why I can't see GTS in the 8-10 million copies.

 

[Tired Tyres]

PD have 200 employees and are 1st party. GT5 was bloated with costs and was $60 million, something PD would break even from in around 2 million sales.

That was 110 people working out at 12 million per year operating cost then. Years of inflation and an extra 90 staff and you really think 2 million will see a profit when neither the console manufacture or publisher make anywhere near all the profit?

 

[dbarrade]

And? Not sure what that has to do with my comment. Also, since my name is specifically mentioned, please quote where I said the game is irrelevant, outdated and looks like a PS2 (or even PS3) game.

@Johnnypenso sorry, things seem to have escalated a little fast here and you didn't take my comment the way it was intended. Sorry.

The comments in this particular thread are mostly positive towards GT Sport, but it seems to me that there has been a growing view amongst the wider gaming community that Polyphony and Gran Turismo are no longer what they used to be and have been vastly overshadowed by their competitors including Project Cars and Forza. The graph of the three franchises I linked to earlier would support that:

Which seems to show that currently there is a lot more interest in the Forza series than the Gran Turismo Series and Project Cars than Gran Turismo Sport...

You then said in response to a graph of just the search names of the current games:

Given the sales disparity between those three franchises, that's actually a pretty good result for Forza and PCars.

To which I replied:

@Johnnypenso (and everyone else in this thread ) Only that isn't the graph for the three franchises that's the graph for the latest game in the three franchises... you know, the one everyone keeps saying is irrelevant and outdated, looks like a PS2 game and doesn't have enough cars or tracks, and wont sell as much as PCars 2 or Forza 7... and we haven't seen it start to spike yet before the imminent release...

The first part directed at you was meaning that if you had looked at the graph I linked to (shown above) you probably would have been way more impressed with the result for Forza and Project Cars... I just really didn't explain myself well at all and then went on to make a comment about what everyone (else) is saying about Gran Turismo and GT Sport because in the graph showing just the recent game searches I was surprised that GT Sport was ahead... especially since if you look at the Series searches we haven't yet seen the spike that was seen in front of the launch of other games in the Gran Turismo series.

I really hope this clarifies things a little, I think reading the comments on the Digital Foundry youtube clip might help if you want to understand how I came to the conclusion of what "everyone" is saying about GT Sport.

 

[GT6mebe]

Are you suggesting that PD made $30 profit from every copy of GT5?

I think a citation is required for a 50% profit margin getting back to the developer.

Oh and play the ball not the man.

Dev/production costs are handled by the publisher not developer. We've been over this. PD is 1st party. SCE make %66 (90% with digital) on each copy.

Oops, just a misclick. I think it will be around 2 or 3 million. And I'm not your enemy I just don't care how many copies they will sell. At the end, it's not my money and GT is still my favorite franchise. TBH, there are so many things missing in GTSport that used to make GT a best seller, that's why I can't see GTS in the 8-10 million copies.

Since GT is my fav racing franchise I do care how many is sold so PD remains successful and continues with it.
There's a whole load of numbers between 3 and 8 you know lmao

That was 110 people working out at 12 million per year operating cost then. Years of inflation and an extra 90 staff and you really think 2 million will see a profit when neither the console manufacture or publisher make anywhere near all the profit?

12 mil per year is wrong. Total costs were $60million is the figure (video game development does not have a constant rate of expenditure).

And yes. Easily. SCE is making 66-90% on each copy. 2 million is going to give around $80million in revenue to SCE.

 

[ImaRobot]

12 mil per year is wrong. Total costs were $60million is the figure (video game development does not have a constant rate of expenditure

12*5=60.

 

[GT6mebe]

12*5=60.

Please read before you reply:

(video game development does not have a constant rate of expenditure)

 

[Scaff]

Dev/production costs are handled by the publisher not developer. We've been over this. PD is 1st party. SCE make %66 (90% with digital) on each copy.

Since GT is my fav racing franchise I do care how many is sold so PD remains successful and continues with it.
There's a whole load of numbers between 3 and 8 you know lmao



12 mil per year is wrong. Total costs were $60million is the figure (video game development does not have a constant rate of expenditure).

And yes. Easily. SCE is making 66-90% on each copy. 2 million is going to give around $80million in revenue to SCE.

You didn't say SCE, you said PD.

Now PD is a first party studio, but the corporate structure also means they are a legally separate part of the business. As such they don't have to report publicly. So once again I ask you for a citation that PD were making the profit you claimed.

Please read before you reply:

Play the ball not the man, you will not be asked again.

 

[AH49]

I just pre-ordered GT Sport and PCars 2 on UK PSN.

Out of interest I looked at PSN ratings, which can only be given after a pre-order or purchase. I Included Uncharted Lost Legacy as a recent comparison with a major AAA release. Of course GT Sport is still over a month from release, before the major marketing push has kicked in.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Dev/production costs are handled by the publisher not developer. We've been over this. PD is 1st party. SCE make %66 (90% with digital) on each copy.

Since GT is my fav racing franchise I do care how many is sold so PD remains successful and continues with it.
There's a whole load of numbers between 3 and 8 you know lmao



12 mil per year is wrong. Total costs were $60million is the figure (video game development does not have a constant rate of expenditure).

And yes. Easily. SCE is making 66-90% on each copy. 2 million is going to give around $80million in revenue to SCE.

Check your sources. That $60 million figure is from one year before release. They still had an entire year of salary and overhead for 110 plus people plus a couple of years in support after that.

Also, can you tell me how the revenue is shared when GT is sold in a bundle?

 

[Tired Tyres]

Please read before you reply:

(video game development does not have a constant rate of expenditure)

Yes it does. It is called salary. In addition annual operating costs are worked out over the course of the expected duration annually.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

You didn't say SCE, you said PD.

Now PD is a first party studio, but the corporate structure also means they are a legally separate part of the business. As such they don't have to report publicly. So once again I ask you for a citation that PD were making the profit you claimed.


Play the ball not the man, you will not be asked again.

IF I remember well enough to be forgiven, you pointed out how Kaz is on SCE board and how, in your eyes, that places PD in a different position from usual.

Disclaimer: Please forgive any discrepancy in this as this is from my memory.

 

[Scaff]

IF I remember well enough to be forgiven, you pointed out how Kaz is on SCE board and how, in your eyes, that places PD in a different position from usual.

Disclaimer: Please forgive any discrepancy in this as this is from my memory.

He is on the board, that is quite right.

However that doesn't change how the legal framework of the two sit from a corporate point of view.

PD is a wholly owned subsidiary of Sony, as such the do not need to make separate financial statements and should they even incur any financial problems those can't go back to Sony.

As such a claim that PD make 50% profit from each of the first 2 million copies of GT5, or that any part of the budget and cost allocation is known simply can't be backed up.

We can only make educated guesses about it, rather than absolute statements.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

He is on the board, that is quite right.

However that doesn't change how the legal framework of the two sit from a corporate point of view.

PD is a wholly owned subsidiary of Sony, as such the do not need to make separate financial statements and should they even incur any financial problems those can't go back to Sony.

As such a claim that PD make 50% profit from each of the first 2 million copies of GT5, or that any part of the budget and cost allocation is known simply can't be backed up.

We can only make educated guesses about it, rather than absolute statements.

But how about the other part of my question from memory - that you (may have) pushed rather quite adamantly how because of "board thing" PD is not to be compared as other typical companies regarding their work, employees, costs etc.? Like very argumented and repeated notions of that?

 

[Scaff]

But how about the other part of my question from memory - that you (may have) pushed rather quite adamantly how because of "board thing" PD is not to be compared as other typical companies regarding their work, employees, costs etc.? Like very argumented and repeated notions of that?

I really not sure how Kaz being on the board and therefore being in a better position to influence that board (which I'm not aware of being the case for another racing sim studio head) has in relation to knowing how much profit PD made from each of the first 2 million copies of GT5?

Sorry, but the two seem utterly unrelated.

 

[Sertsa]

A Google search indicated that as of last June Sony has sold over 60M PS4s. I think 10% of PS4 owners buying the game at some point is on the low side, which would still be 6M.

 

[Johnnypenso]

A Google search indicated that as of last June Sony has sold over 60M PS4s. I think 10% of PS4 owners buying the game at some point is on the low side, which would still be 6M.

Less than 7% of PS3 owners bought GT6 and it wasn't an online focused game like GTS. Only about 40% of those 60 million have PSPlus to take advantage of that online focus.

 

[Sertsa]

Less than 7% of PS3 owners bought GT6 and it wasn't an online focused game like GTS. Only about 40% of those 60 million have PSPlus to take advantage of that online focus.

Good point, but the PS3 already had a GT game for the console with 5, which sold 11.94M.

 

[GT6mebe]

You didn't say SCE, you said PD.

Now PD is a first party studio, but the corporate structure also means they are a legally separate part of the business. As such they don't have to report publicly. So once again I ask you for a citation that PD were making the profit you claimed.


Play the ball not the man, you will not be asked again.

PD is part of SCE. You fail to realise that SCE is the one taking the development costs. So yeah, GT's costs are easily covered by 2 million sales.

Pointing out said poster did not read my post is not playing the man. I even specifically mentioned that point only to be replied with basic division.

Check your sources. That $60 million figure is from one year before release. They still had an entire year of salary and overhead for 110 plus people plus a couple of years in support after that.

Also, can you tell me how the revenue is shared when GT is sold in a bundle?

Depends on the bundle. Most bundles provide the software at a lower price. Its up to the publisher then to pay a certain amount to the dev.

Yes it does. It is called salary. In addition annual operating costs are worked out over the course of the expected duration annually.

Lmao if you think salary is the only cost for game development. Manufacturing, retail, and advertising. Taking a dev cost toal and dividing it by the number of dev years is just poor logic.

 

[Tired Tyres]

PD is part of SCE. You fail to realise that SCE is the one taking the development costs. So yeah, GT's costs are easily covered by 2 million sales.

Pointing out said poster did not read my post is not playing the man. I even specifically mentioned that point only to be replied with basic division.



Depends on the bundle. Most bundles provide the software at a lower price. Its up to the publisher then to pay a certain amount to the dev.



Lmao if you think salary is the only cost for game development. Manufacturing, retail, and advertising. Taking a dev cost toal and dividing it by the number of dev years is just poor logic.

Did you miss the words DIRECTLY after that......

 

[GT6mebe]

Did you miss the words DIRECTLY after that......

Yup, and I detailed them to show you how they do not happen at a constant rate throughout the dev cycle lol

 

[Scaff]

PD is part of SCE.

A wholly owned subsidiary of SCE, I've already explained what that means and.....

You fail to realise that SCE is the one taking the development costs. So yeah, GT's costs are easily covered by 2 million sales.

......why that means you can't make that statement as fact without a citation.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Yup, and I detailed them to show you how they do not happen at a constant rate throughout the dev cycle lol

If you can't work out that you have a budget and a time scale you then work out you ANNUAL expenditure then I can't help you.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

A wholly owned subsidiary of SCE, I've already explained what that means and.....


......why that means you can't make that statement as fact without a citation.

CAN you tell a free man, on a free and quite progressive forum that he can't make any statement he honestly believes in?

It is your/mine freedom to express arguments to contrary and even point them out strongly. Or even asertively, to a point ofc...
BUT that one is not even allowed to make a statement on a forum, without citations that would often involve bussines or scientific degrees can (maybe in other cases not this) be against forum policies?