Estimate GT Sport sales

[Famine]

I feel embarrassed quoting IGN when they can't even spell Gran Turismo.

Then why not quote GTPlanet - particularly as we beat everyone else to it with this article?

 

[Tired Tyres]

Series creator Kazunori Yamauchi has stated the online portion of the game only accounts for roughly 15% of the game.

I know he has and taking all the various elements the game has, that might even be right in terms of percentage of overall content elements, but based on what we have seen so far - and we have seen everything the game has to offer outside of normal p2p online mode and arcade mode create race option I'd stick to what my previous post says.

 

[dbarrade]

@Famine the point of quoting IGN was that they are a (terrible imho) mainstream gaming website, I'm guessing with more followers than GTPlanet (almost 9M vs 250K?). I was trying to support my case that GT Sport is getting media coverage and they are saying things like it has a deep campaign. (I really hope that wasn't seen as disrespectful, I think I've visited this site maybe twice a week since I joined 13 years ago, I love this place and all your hard work!)

I said before, I feel the game is like a Prologue, but I think the (paid) media coverage is implying otherwise.

I bet there won't be any full reviews before launch.

 

[TWR77]

Considering strong competition, (even myself picking Pcars 2 first) and it's lack of cars and content will hurt it's sales. I reckon maybe around 1-2million.

Is there strong competition?

F1 2017 is already hitting the bargain bins and that will sell more than PCars 2 (on PS4 at least). Forza 7 is on another platform and already on its fifth interation this gen. People bring up content, but again, GTS will be a service and still going strong 3yrs from now. We'll have had another three F1 games and three Forza's by then, regurgitating the same content.......because there's only so much you can do with a car game. Another major advantage GTS has is the quality of the PD designed tracks. We'll get Spa, Silverstone and the like in every sim.

GTS will end up selling more than F1 2017, Dirt 4, Assetto Corsa, Pcars 2 and Forza 7 combined.

 

[SlipZtrEm]

but again, GTS will be a service and still going strong 3yrs from now.

Considering support for GT6 was dropped by the two year mark that's impressive.

This should put a lot of people at ease with regards to GT Sport's long-term feasibility. Can we get a link where this was confirmed so we can share it on the front page?

 

[TheNuvolari]

Is there strong competition?

F1 2017 is already hitting the bargain bins and that will sell more than PCars 2 (on PS4 at least). Forza 7 is on another platform and already on its fifth interation this gen. People bring up content, but again, GTS will be a service and still going strong 3yrs from now. We'll have had another three F1 games and three Forza's by then, regurgitating the same content.......because there's only so much you can do with a car game. Another major advantage GTS has is the quality of the PD designed tracks. We'll get Spa, Silverstone and the like in every sim.

GTS will end up selling more than F1 2017, Dirt 4, Assetto Corsa, Pcars 2 and Forza 7 combined.

Woah, man, you're optimist! I wish PD would sell that much copies! But I'm afraid Forza Horizon 3 sold more than what GTS will do in three years.

 

[lancia delta hf]

I voted 2 million. Surprised people think it will sell 10 million.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

Wasn't GT6 released on console that was already FACTUAL last gen at that same moment? Doesn't that have a big relevence

How about how long was GT5 supported, in total and for a time still after GT6 release - and with that being in situation where GT6 itself is total last gen right there...

And not to add on top of that how PS3 GT's were NOT "service games" is really short-sighted! Like me

 

[Lumi]

I don't think it will sell more than 5 million.. Feels like not much has changed and the cars list is pretty thin if you compare it to Forza series. I want more "normal" cars and more customization.. Not only super duper ultra hyper fast cars that cost **** load of cash and take forever to get to.

I'm going to wait for the full game and if the cars list hasn't grown I'm going to the dark side.. Buy a Xbox and Forza 7!

 

[Lord Kacperov]

I voted 2 million. Surprised people think it will sell 10 million.

And I'm surprised people think GT Sport will sell that underwhelmingly. Sure, 10 million sounds (very) optimistic, but I doubt the game will sell less than GT6. Don't get me wrong, I see where you're coming from, but 2 million sounds a bit too low.

We'll see how it'll sell when the game comes out.

 

[Lord Kacperov]

Woah, man, you're optimist! I wish PD would sell that much copies! But I'm afraid Forza Horizon 3 sold more than what GTS will do in three years.

And FH3 sold like what, 2.5 to 3 million copies? I think it'll definitely sell more than that. But that's just me.

Excuse me for the double posting.

 

[TWR77]

Woah, man, you're optimist! I wish PD should sell that much copies! But I'm afraid Forza Horizon 3 sold more than what GTS will do in three years.

Forza Horizon 3 hasn't sold 2.5m despite heavy bundling and the Motorsport series sells worse.

On PS4 F1 2017 won't sell 1m and Dirt 4 will be under 250K. PCars2 will do well to sell the 1m the original did and Assetto Corsa hasn't yet crossed 100K. To put things into further perspective, Driveclub officially sold over 2m with a PS4 userbase under 30m. This was largely down to bundling and retailer offers in Europe.

Gran Turismo is one of PlayStation's premier franchises. It will have the full weight of Sony behind it, selling to a userbase close to 80m by the end of the year. A baseline of 5m is a given......you can argue how much more it will sell. My lifetime prediction is 8.2m.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Forza Horizon 3 hasn't sold 2.5m despite heavy bundling and the Motorsport series sells worse.

On PS4 F1 2017 won't sell 1m and Dirt 4 will be under 250K. PCars2 will do well to sell the 1m the original did and Assetto Corsa hasn't yet crossed 100K. To put things into further perspective, Driveclub officially sold over 2m with a PS4 userbase under 30m. This was largely down to bundling and retailer offers in Europe.

Gran Turismo is one of PlayStation's premier franchises. It will have the full weight of Sony behind it, selling to a userbase close to 80m by the end of the year. A baseline of 5m is a given......you can argue how much more it will sell. My lifetime prediction is 8.2m.

They've have to give it away free with PS4's to get that number. It's an online PvP eSport title. Check Trophy lists for games like this to see how many play online racers. That's your market. There is nothing at all in this massive mistake of a game to appeal to the casual players that are needed to make those kind of numbers.

I would never consider buying this based what we know about this game and that comes from someone who has bought EVERY officially released GT game in the UK and is a member of this - a Gran Turismo FAN site. How you going to sell that to a casual racer?

 

[TS050]

They've have to give it away free with PS4's to get that number. It's an online PvP eSport title. Check Trophy lists for games like this to see how many play online racers. That's your market. There is nothing at all in this massive mistake of a game to appeal to the casual players that are needed to make those kind of numbers.

I would never consider buying this based what we know about this game and that comes from someone who has bought EVERY officially released GT game in the UK and is a member of this - a Gran Turismo FAN site. How you going to sell that to a casual racer?

Casual racers are going to look at the name "Gran Turismo" and buy it without a care in the world.

Racing game sales are decreasing overall, and the last two GT games haven't sold well for their franchise, but that isn't gonna stop GTS from having better sales than most other racing games out there

 

[TWR77]

They've have to give it away free with PS4's to get that number. It's an online PvP eSport title. Check Trophy lists for games like this to see how many play online racers. That's your market. There is nothing at all in this massive mistake of a game to appeal to the casual players that are needed to make those kind of numbers.

I would never consider buying this based what we know about this game and that comes from someone who has bought EVERY officially released GT game in the UK and is a member of this - a Gran Turismo FAN site. How you going to sell that to a casual racer?

The same way you sell Destiny, Overwatch, Rocket League, PUBG and even FIFA.

In 2017 an online, social media and community focus is the right move for GTS. The driving market has stagnated, both creatively and sales, people spend more time discussing these games, sharing photos, tweets etc., than playing. When they do play we are increasingly focused on online competition....or casual fun with friends. This becomes even more important as your audience ages, they have less time to dedicate to grinding through a career. It's a different proposition to a story based single-player game.

Just as GT started the car collecting craze, I'm sure it will spearhead the online and service based focus on consoles. Of course, to do this you need the userbase, which is something GTS can rely upon.

GT, like Forza, will always be heavily bundled. It's a 1st party showpiece you can sell to a casual audience. Everyone knows about cars, and everyone has heard of Gran Turismo.

 

[Tired Tyres]

Casual racers are going to look at the name "Gran Turismo" and buy it without a care in the world.

Racing game sales are decreasing overall, and the last two GT games haven't sold well for their franchise, but that isn't gonna stop GTS from having better sales than most other racing games out there

I'd respect the intelligence of those casual players rather more than that if I was you. Just walking into a games store seeing the words Gran Turismo on the case and thinking "Oh I must buy that" I think not. 👎

 

[TWR77]

I'd respect the intelligence of those casual players rather more than that if I was you. Just walking into a games store seeing the words Gran Turismo on the case and thinking "Oh I must buy that" I think not. 👎

It's casual players moving the industry towards online.

Anything with a competitive element is moving in that direction. It's a great compliment to the story based single-player games Sony do so well.

 

[Tired Tyres]

It's casual players moving the industry towards online.

Anything with a competitive element is moving in that direction. It's a great compliment to the story based single-player games Sony do so well.

Again. Look at the Trophy take up for online racing. That is your market. The facts don't support your position.

 

[SlipZtrEm]

Casual racers are going to look at the name "Gran Turismo" and buy it without a care in the world.

On release? Probably. Shortly after, when it becomes common knowledge it's a huge departure from what's come before, and largely focuses on fantasy race cars built to strict class structures? Rather harder to say.

The lack of a classic career mode may be an issue or it may not. What I think may be more of a sticking point for Joe Casual is no longer being able to buy a few of his favourite road cars and tune them up how he sees fit, and just mess around. GT Sport, more so than any GT game that's come before it, looks super cereal, guys. Some other genres may be moving towards more competitive esports approaches, and they're seeing growth there, but it hasn't yet happened with racing.

Purely anecdotal, but I'll share anyway: talking to a few friends recently who sort of dabble with racing games, and the general consensus from all of them was that they want more street cars. They want more of the cars they either see on the road, or want to see on the road. Just last night, one such friend was lamenting the relative lack of road cars in PCARS2 — and that has more than GT Sport, IIRC.

Racing game sales are decreasing overall, and the last two GT games haven't sold well for their franchise, but that isn't gonna stop GTS from having better sales than most other racing games out there

Well yeah, I don't think many people are going to argue that Sport won't end up the sales leader out of all the racing games this year! We agree.

Just as GT started the car collecting craze, I'm sure it will spearhead the online and service based focus on consoles.

Still looking for the confirmation of GT Sport as a service (a la iRacing, I assume?). Really, this would be big news, we'd like to share it.

 

[marcvic]

I'd respect the intelligence of those casual players rather more than that if I was you. Just walking into a games store seeing the words Gran Turismo on the case and thinking "Oh I must buy that" I think not. 👎

I agree, give A. Joe some credit lol. If GT does sell in high volumes, I'm sure there will be attempts at reducing it to the GT branding - which would negate the fact that it may actually just be a great game. I'm sure the branding helps, but a great game, is a great game (and a bad one, a bad one).

 

[Lord Kacperov]

I'd respect the intelligence of those casual players rather more than that if I was you. Just walking into a games store seeing the words Gran Turismo on the case and thinking "Oh I must buy that" I think not. 👎

If casual players don't buy games just because of the name, then why on earth's name did Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare, the world's most hated game, still manage to sell 7.51 million copies on PS4 and therefore managing to just outsell Battlefield 1 on PS4 (7.10M sales) and Titanfall 2 on PS4 (which only sold 1.34M copies)?!

On Xbox One however, the internet's favorite game sold 4.54M copies, while Battlefield 1 actually outsold it and is now at 4.82M copies. And nobody seemingly cares about Titanfall 2, as the game only managed to sell 1.15M copies on Microsoft's console.

This means that Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare has been more successful on consoles than both Battlefield 1 and Titanfall 2. On Metacritic, it does have a 77, but the user score is an embarrassing 3.6/10, on PS4. And yet, it sold 12.05M copies on the consoles, while Battlefield 1 managed to get 11.92M sales on Sony's and Microsoft's gaming systems, which is less than CoD: IW but still impressive. And Titanfall 2? It only sold an embarrassing 2.49M copies on both consoles.

My source is VGChartz for your information.

 

[Scaff]

PCars2 will do well to sell the 1m the original....

The original sold 2 million, almost a year ago.

https://www.gtplanet.net/project-cars-has-sold-over-two-million-copies/

Just last night, one such friend was lamenting the relative lack of road cars in PCARS2 — and that has more than GT Sport, IIRC.

Yep, both by number and percentage, and AC hammers them both as a percentage of total car count for road cars.

 

[Tired Tyres]

If casual players don't buy games just because of the name, then why on earth's name did Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare, the world's most hated game, still manage to sell 7.51 million copies on PS4 and therefore managing to just outsell Battlefield 1 on PS4 (7.10M sales) and Titanfall 2 on PS4 (which only sold 1.34M copies)?!

On Xbox One however, the internet's favorite game sold 4.54M copies, while Battlefield 1 actually outsold it and is now at 4.82M copies. And nobody seemingly cares about Titanfall 2, as the game only managed to sell 1.15M copies on Microsoft's console.

This means that Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare has been more successful on consoles than both Battlefield 1 and Titanfall 2. On Metacritic, it does have a 77, but the user score is an embarrassing 3.6/10, on PS4. And yet, it sold 12.05M copies on the consoles, while Battlefield 1 managed to get 11.92M sales on Sony's and Microsoft's gaming systems, which is less than CoD: IW but still impressive. And Titanfall 2? It only sold an embarrassing 2.49M copies on both consoles.

My source is VGChartz for your information.

First FPS are not race games and not in any way comparable especially in terms of gameplay styles. They translate from offline to online very well. As for COD - that sells to the same people every time. They know what they want and so does the publisher. Second VGChartz. Never use that for sales stats. 👎 It is the very definition of not reliable. At. All.

 

[Lord Kacperov]

Second VGChartz. Never use that for sales stats. 👎 It is the very definition of not reliable. At. All.

Noted.

 

[sems4arsenal]

Woah, man, you're optimist! I wish PD would sell that much copies! But I'm afraid Forza Horizon 3 sold more than what GTS will do in three years.

Yeah that's going to be tough (not totally out of the question). I'd say removing Forza 7 from the sentence makes it much more realistic.

Forza 7 has the new console advantage. There isn't really much else to show off the Xbox one X aside from that and Origins.

 

[Outspacer]

If casual players don't buy games just because of the name, then why on earth's name did Call of Duty: Infinite Warfare, the world's most hated game, still manage to sell 7.51 million copies on PS4 and therefore managing to just outsell Battlefield 1 on PS4 (7.10M sales) and Titanfall 2 on PS4 (which only sold 1.34M copies)?!

Well it changed the setting, but otherwise was still in many ways the same kind of shooter as before. Probably a good number of the dislikers still bought it anyway, either because their friends or clan members did, or because they simply thought it might be worth a try. It also might have pulled in some new people thanks to the setting. But still, "sales underperformed"...

On an earnings call, Activision CEO Eric Hirshberg said that Infinite Warfare’s sales underperformed and that the sci-fi setting “didn’t resonate” with Call of Duty players.

GT Sport is not at all like previous GT - that should be clear by now to anyone who has any interest in it at all. Anyone wanting an expansive list of offline events to run through and tick off simply isn't going to buy it just to try it.

So, aside from racers being incomparable to FPS anyway, the changes in these particular two games are also incomparable IMO.

Well yeah, I don't think many people are going to argue that Sport won't end up the sales leader out of all the racing games this year!

I'm tempted, but I wouldn't want to wager anything on it! I think it could be pretty tight between PCars2 and GTS. Certainly SMS appear to be eyeing that territory with talk of aiming for an 'approachable' sim. It remains to prove itself, but the feature list certainly isn't lacking.

 

[cutmeamango]

And FH3 sold like what, 2.5 to 3 million copies? I think it'll definitely sell more than that. But that's just me.

Excuse me for the double posting.

Forza Horizon 3 hasn't sold 2.5m despite heavy bundling and the Motorsport series sells worse.

On PS4 F1 2017 won't sell 1m and Dirt 4 will be under 250K. PCars2 will do well to sell the 1m the original did and Assetto Corsa hasn't yet crossed 100K. To put things into further perspective, Driveclub officially sold over 2m with a PS4 userbase under 30m. This was largely down to bundling and retailer offers in Europe.

Gran Turismo is one of PlayStation's premier franchises. It will have the full weight of Sony behind it, selling to a userbase close to 80m by the end of the year. A baseline of 5m is a given......you can argue how much more it will sell. My lifetime prediction is 8.2m.

The original sold 2 million, almost a year ago.

https://www.gtplanet.net/project-cars-has-sold-over-two-million-copies/

FH3 should have crossed 3mi by now, it's the best selling Xbox bundle in the UK still, and likely everywhere really.

On PS4, PCARS sold indeed ~1mi since the split was around 45/40/15 with PS4 leading. PCARS with GOTY edition sales should be just under 2.5 mi. Ian Bell said 4mi would be a good mark for PC2, which at the same split would mean ~2mi on PS4.

Assetto Corsa well crossed 100k, since the last number we had pointed to ~500k on consoles and the split was bigger towards PS4 due Europe. Probably did 300k+.

F1 is sad, I couldn't find any complete numbers but 2016 should have struggled to surpass 1mi total with what we have from Europe, knowing it's even weaker on America. Wonder how it performs in Asia. So yeah, PS4 performance is . 2017 is going lower. Unless it is a digital beast.

Racing game sales are decreasing overall, and the last two GT games haven't sold well for their franchise, but that isn't gonna stop GTS from having better sales than most other racing games out there

GT5 is the second best selling game in the franchise. The last GT game hasn't sold well.

Again. Look at the Trophy take up for online racing. That is your market. The facts don't support your position.

It doesn't work like that, at all.
If you look at trophy stats, less than a third do more than the initial campaign (PCARS free campaign numbers are lower). So that's your market: Hunks buying games to decorate their shelves, who cares.
For your fact!

 

[Tired Tyres]

It doesn't work like that, at all.
If you look at trophy stats, less than a third do more than the initial campaign (PCARS free campaign numbers are lower). So that's your market: Hunks buying games to decorate their shelves, who cares.
For your fact!

That's the casual play element. Play for a while and then move on to something else. As for online.

1. Assetto Corsa. Complete ONE lap in an online race. 15.1%.
2. Pro Cars NO online Trophy exceeds 7.5%.

 

[ImaRobot]

It doesn't work like that, at all.

What doesn't work like that? Using information to gauge an interest in a specific side of things? It may not show the whole picture, but it gives a general idea. Especially when you look into just about any racing game that focus' both aspects of the community, it appears to be a common trend.

 

[Scaff]

It's casual players moving the industry towards online.

Anything with a competitive element is moving in that direction. It's a great compliment to the story based single-player games Sony do so well.

For FPS that may well be the case, but its certainly not for racing titles, Sims in particular. The percentage of buyers who go online for even a short period of time is between 5 and 10 percent.