Estimate GT Sport sales

[TWR77]

GTS has had a strange introduction and may start somewhat lacking content wise.

But I have no doubt focusing on online competition, social features and community is the best way to engage, and retain, the userbase. That will pay even greater dividends if, as expected, it becomes a service focused title.

I'm a huge advocate for story driven single-player games, they help shape and define a platforms identity. However, for competitive titles like driving sims, sports and shooters, grinding through a campaign has limited appeal. As a hardcore sim fan it was what I looked forward to back in the early years of PlayStation. Today, I focus on online competition (both casual & organised), and sharing my videos, photos etc. on social media.

 

[Silver Arrows]

On my Project Cars 2 page on my PSN store, it has 9 ratings and 2.5 stars. GTS has 400-odd ratings and four stars if that helps anyone.

Edit: Funnily the Project Cars 2 Deluxe Edition has more than 10 ratings and five stars.

I can take screenshots of my PS4 if anyone wants, but this is off of memory from a few days ago.



If that actually happened, it would be on the front page of every gaming news outlet ever.

You do realize that the bolded doesn't mean anything? I don't think anyone who is going to be buying the game is going to look at a bunch of fake and inflated reviews on the actual storefront, and will probably look at actual reviews instead. Especially something as niche as sim racers.

 

[MisterWaffles]

But I have no doubt focusing on online competition, social features and community is the best way to engage, and retain, the userbase. That will pay even greater dividends if, as expected, it becomes a service focused title.

Preach, I play GT6 sometimes and I'm regularly on the community tab. I can say for certain the only people still playing GT6 are playing solely for the online portion. It's still a pretty sizeable community given the age of the system and software though. I bet a large deal of GT's fanbase, mostly the non-forum going casual players, are in it for the online free lobbies.

You do realize that the bolded doesn't mean anything? I don't think anyone who is going to be buying the game is going to look at a bunch of fake and inflated reviews on the actual storefront, and will probably look at actual reviews instead. Especially something as niche as sim racers.

Even if you're not paying attention to those fake reviews, the numbers clearly show way more people bothering to rate GT Sport's page on the storefront, so it stands to reason that there's more pre-release interest in GT Sport in my region. More pre-release interest would directly correlate to more sales in my area too. Even if the reviews are bull, it's still an accurate gauge of interest by consumers.

 

[TWR77]

I believe you can only rate a title on PSN if you have purchased or pre-ordered it. The ratings mean little at this stage, but the number of ratings are relevant.

It shouldn't really be a surprise. PCars sold 2m by the end of 2016 on three platforms, so we can assume anywhere from 750K to 1.2m on PS4. GTS will pull in sales of 6m to 10m.

 

[SlipZtrEm]

@MrWaflz55 - again, don't double post. That's what the Edit and +Quote features are for. 👍

 

[MisterWaffles]

@MrWaflz55 - again, don't double post. That's what the Edit and +Quote features are for. 👍

Sorry I'm on mobile and I'm not sure how to add quotes when you're in the "edit post" menu.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

Sorry I'm on mobile and I'm not sure how to add quotes when you're in the "edit post" menu.

@SlipZtrEm I also don't know how to add a quote later - after originaly posting - then to later add more quotes via "edit"...?

 

[Johnnypenso]

Preach, I play GT6 sometimes and I'm regularly on the community tab. I can say for certain the only people still playing GT6 are playing solely for the online portion. It's still a pretty sizeable community given the age of the system and software though. I bet a large deal of GT's fanbase, mostly the non-forum going casual players, are in it for the online free lobbies.

Source please. Since you are certain the only people still playing GT6 are playing solely for the online portion it should be easy to provide a link to the actual stats of people playing offline vs. online.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

You are the one sure such links exist and are easy to find, not Waflz - where is your source that Waflz ever indicated that finding such links would be easy for him?

On other hand you think it should be easy to find - isn't that a proof that for you such links are easy to find? At leats you said so, and you take peoples word so, so seroiusly...

Plus it would really be a WIN for your argument to be the one who actualy included that link with statistic confirming your view. Instead of just claiming it should be easy.

May I ask where is your source that this particular source exist and falls under category of "easy to find sources"?
Source please...

 

[SlipZtrEm]

You are the one sure such links exist and are easy to find, not Waflz - where is your source that Waflz ever indicated that finding such links would be easy for him?

On other hand you think it should be easy to find - isn't that a proof that for you such links are easy to find? At leats you said so, and you take peoples word so, so seroiusly...

Plus it would really be a WIN for your argument to be the one who actualy included that link with statistic confirming your view. Instead of just claiming it should be easy.

May I ask where is your source that this particular source exist and falls under category of "easy to find sources"?
Source please...

The person who made the claim is @MrWaflz55. It's right here:

I can say for certain the only people still playing GT6 are playing solely for the online portion.

Now, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he meant to use different words — as there's no way for him to prove the claim, unless he's able to peek into every household that contains a copy of GT6.

As an easy example, the last time I played GT6 wasn't to play online.

 

[MisterWaffles]

Might as well drop that in the Ludicrous Claims™ thread then.

Honestly, online multiplayer is one of the only reasons I can think of playing the game for 4 and a half years. It's no doubt a huge draw as well. Once it shuts a fraction of the people will still be playing, and GT5 is the better offline game to begin with, more people would gravitate towards that IMO.

 

[Johnnypenso]

You are the one sure such links exist and are easy to find, not Waflz - where is your source that Waflz ever indicated that finding such links would be easy for him?

On other hand you think it should be easy to find - isn't that a proof that for you such links are easy to find? At leats you said so, and you take peoples word so, so seroiusly...

Plus it would really be a WIN for your argument to be the one who actualy included that link with statistic confirming your view. Instead of just claiming it should be easy.

May I ask where is your source that this particular source exist and falls under category of "easy to find sources"?
Source please...

I'm not claiming any certainties so there's no need for me to link any stats is there? The only way one can say "for certain" about a giant userbase is if they have the statistics to prove the claim. Simple logic.

Might as well drop that in the Ludicrous Claims™ thread then.

Glad you agree.

 

[GT Sport]

I'm gonna say 10m for lifetime sales.
Keep in mind that there are hardcore gt fans. Also, there are those who will buy after enough reviews and those who will grab the on-sale price.
After a year I really hope GTS to reach more than 5 mil since a lot GT5/6 owners on PS3 got disappointed.

But, let's be honest. Everyone can clearly see the massive improvement PD has done for this game especially for the sound lovers.
So personally, I do have high expectations about Gran Turismo Sport as it is the first ever Gran Turismo game to hit the PS4 consoles.

 

[Edzgt5]

6.5 in four - five years ( lifetime) and 3.7 in first 12 months

 

[TA462]

I'm guessing 7 million the first year only because a lot of people have upgraded to a PS4. It will hit over 10 million buy the time a new one is released.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

I'm guessing 7 million the first year only because a lot of people have upgraded to a PS4. It will hit over 10 million buy the time a new one is released.

Agree. Only other thing is I'm likely expecting that for PS5 there will be more like upgrade/expansion done trough update (for those who already had GTS). Ofc., there would still be a new disc and digital version for first time buyers.

(That theory does demand ps5 to be fully compatible with ps4, otherwise no banana.)

Another other question ( ) would be - how much could PD charge for "next gen expansion" of existing game? You could definitely keep playing old ps4 version on your new ps5 (IF they are compatible) for free... Including all those dlc one PAYED FOR on ps4...

So, if they charge me for update/expansion to PS5 visuals, physics and features (weather, 30 players lobies etc...) some 30 euros, but I don't have to re-buy any of dlc's that I have bought on PS4 - would that be acceptable?

Or not?

Would PD do that and look to make more money in the LONG run, or would they be more likely to go for quick cash-grab by selling full new game? Keep in mind that in case ps5 being fully compatible PD would have to include all ps4 content in that new game from the start.

So it's just the case of selling us expansion for medium price (compared to price of full game) but keeping both ps4 and ps5 comunity conected (not fully, but to an extent) and they NEED large comunity for FIA esport thingy. Last thing they need is to ERASE their comunity to zero, or divide ps4 and ps5 totaly!

And positive good will would bring them more money in the long run.

Perhaps that would be nice for us as well?

 

[Johnnypenso]

Agree. Only other thing is I'm likely expecting that for PS5 there will be more like upgrade/expansion done trough update (for those who already had GTS). Ofc., there would still be a new disc and digital version for first time buyers.

(That theory does demand ps5 to be fully compatible with ps4, otherwise no banana.)

Another other question ( ) would be - how much could PD charge for "next gen expansion" of existing game? You could definitely keep playing old ps4 version on your new ps5 (IF they are compatible) for free... Including all those dlc one PAYED FOR on ps4...

So, if they charge me for update/expansion to PS5 visuals, physics and features (weather, 30 players lobies etc...) some 30 euros, but I don't have to re-buy any of dlc's that I have bought on PS4 - would that be acceptable?

Or not?

Would PD do that and look to make more money in the LONG run, or would they be more likely to go for quick cash-grab by selling full new game? Keep in mind that in case ps5 being fully compatible PD would have to include all ps4 content in that new game from the start.

So it's just the case of selling us expansion for medium price (compared to price of full game) but keeping both ps4 and ps5 comunity conected (not fully, but to an extent) and they NEED large comunity for FIA esport thingy. Last thing they need is to ERASE their comunity to zero, or divide ps4 and ps5 totaly!

And positive good will would bring them more money in the long run.

Perhaps that would be nice for us as well?

Hmmm...let's do the math. Assuming the game is good for 5 million sales at an average price of $40 that's $200,000,000. So sell GTS2 for $200,000,000 or release an update for the PS5 for $30 that less than 5 million people will buy. Seems pretty straightforward to me. Keep in mind that the lower the average selling price of GTS, the lower the price will be for the update. If the game doesn't sell well and a lot of units get sold from the bargain bin or through bundling, the uptake rate and price of the PS5 update is likely going to be much lower than if many of the units sell on pre-order or anytime at full price ala GT5.

Positive good will doesn't bring more money in the long run. Selling more units at full price does.

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

I don't think I can discern for all criteria you posted - where do you apply each?

If GTS on PS4 is "good for 5 mil.copies" where install base is 60 million consoles, this holidays they will hump over 70 million - then what could possibly GTS 2 be "good for" in first year? Would they even be able to release GTS 2 on PS5 launch or even in first year??? - AND THAT prolongs a moment when PD can start getting NEW money for new game!

IF you can get 15mil. on day one instead of starting to slowly get those 20mil.you might expect from all new game (that might release a year or more later and only then start coming in) - I would expect that any company, any investor would consider 15 mil. day one + whatever good will + people continuing to buy dlc they otherwise might not >>>>>>>>>> has much higher value then possible 20mil. you might get that other way... Once you install base rises once people get on board, once they give up on still finctional GTS on PS4/pro.

AND in my theoretical theory you can have BOTH! I've said - NEW disc with all dlc's included for full price (for people that never had GTS or never bought any payed dlc's - PLUS - another option, just one of options for old customers to upgrade to PS5 version for half price. Great for all that already have every dlc THEY CARE for and just want upgrade.

Or they make calculation that there's lot of dlc's they actually want and full price GTS-PS5 version is best bargain for them.

But on top of all that, really really really important for a game like GTS (might) be is there would be no hard, cold wiping out of the old player base!
That has HUGE financial value for long long perspective of continually making steady moneeeey.

 

[Johnnypenso]

I don't think I can discern for all criteria you posted - where do you apply each?

If GTS on PS4 is "good for 5 mil.copies" where install base is 60 million consoles, this holidays they will hump over 70 million - then what could possibly GTS 2 be "good for" in first year? Would they even be able to release GTS 2 on PS5 launch or even in first year??? - AND THAT prolongs a moment when PD can start getting NEW money for new game!

IF you can get 15mil. on day one instead of starting to slowly get those 20mil.you might expect from all new game (that might release a year or more later and only then start coming in) - I would expect that any company, any investor would consider 15 mil. day one + whatever good will + people continuing to buy dlc they otherwise might not >>>>>>>>>> has much higher value then possible 20mil. you might get that other way... Once you install base rises once people get on board, once they give up on still finctional GTS on PS4/pro.

AND in my theoretical theory you can have BOTH! I've said - NEW disc with all dlc's included for full price (for people that never had GTS or never bought any payed dlc's - PLUS - another option, just one of options for old customers to upgrade to PS5 version for half price. Great for all that already have every dlc THEY CARE for and just want upgrade.

Or they make calculation that there's lot of dlc's they actually want and full price GTS-PS5 version is best bargain for them.

But on top of all that, really really really important for a game like GTS (might) be is there would be no hard, cold wiping out of the old player base!
That has HUGE financial value for long long perspective of continually making steady moneeeey.

It doesn't matter what the sales of GTS are, it'll still work out better for PD/Sony in the long run to sell another full version of the game to the same customers, just as they have been doing for nearly 20 years, whether it's on PS4 or the next one is on PS5. You can still sell DLC for all versions, whether you go the service route or the full game route. Going the service route for a long established, potentially 8 figure unit mover would be quite foolish IMO.

 

[C_Raccoon23]

I voted 7 million and I think I'm being generous. That's still better than what GT6 did. With the competitive and online focus of GTS, I just don't see it breaking 10 million at all, let alone getting within range of GT3's sales.

 

[TWR77]

Like sports and shooters, it's inevitable the sim driving genre moves to an online and community focus.

The genres at best, stale, at worst dying, as the template hasn't changed for 20yrs. Move up through the ranks, usually with a quicker car than the AI, and collect your money, points and prizes. As with the other genres mentioned, there's no substitute for human competition. The issue has always been matching players of similar abilities, and making it quick and easy, to drop in and out.

I have Assetto Corsa, PCars, Dirt Rally etc., sat on my PS4 right now. I make a start on the campaigns, but the predictable AI and stale racing, always draws me back online.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Like sports and shooters, it's inevitable the sim driving genre moves to an online and community focus.

The genres at best, stale, at worst dying, as the template hasn't changed for 20yrs. Move up through the ranks, usually with a quicker car than the AI, and collect your money, points and prizes. As with the other genres mentioned, there's no substitute for human competition. The issue has always been matching players of similar abilities, and making it quick and easy, to drop in and out.

I have Assetto Corsa, PCars, Dirt Rally etc., sat on my PS4 right now. I make a start on the campaigns, but the predictable AI and stale racing, always draws me back online.

This is far too simplistic an answer in this genre. Is there a true substitute for human competition? No. Does everyone desire to go online and compete against humans with the majority of their gameplay in this genre? So far the answer is no based on the statistics. Going online in sim racing and using a quick match type of system to get some quick gameplay in isn't necessarily what many desire in this genre. For one, you lose control over your racing. You don't get to choose your opponents, you don't get to choose when you can race, you don't get to hit a pause button if you make a mistake and, at this point anyway, there is a good possibility of being griefed right off the track and being punished for it at the same time. A QM type of system also doesn't give you any sense of progression beyond the prize money. You aren't winning race series, the game isn't pushing you to make adjustments to your car, buy upgrades etc.

You also aren't winning a lot. Online you will win, on average, 1 time per the average room size. If the average lobby in GTS is 12 you will win 1/12 times and that's assuming you do what the winners in this game do to win. If it turns out the punting someone in the last few corners is the way to win and it has no effect on your driver rating, and you don't race like that, your odds of winning will be much lower. Winning is a big deal in racing. Finishing 8th can be fun but only if you luck out and find someone of equal skill and pace to battle with which definitely won't happen all the time online. Going online, taking up an hour of your time to run 4 races, and running mid-pack and alone for most of it, isn't necessarily what a lot of people want to do. A few nights like that can turn anyone off online racing and apparently it has, so far.

This genre is complicated. It's easy to impute our own personal preferences upon the majority of players but it rarely turns out to be accurate.

 

[Greatbee]

I believe they sooner or later hit 10 million mark!

 

[PhaedrusSocrate]

Yeah, all true, but it's also clear that people who are reprihensive about enjoying online are imputing as well amounts of their own fears and personal dislike they developed or started developing a long time a go... So they are falling short in objectively valueing this NEW GENERATIONAL STEP or even evolutionary step within online department.

Yeah, everything rides on how will all necessary safeguards be implemented to benefit enjoyment to majority of participants. And why are we saying "it depends" rather then "oh, they have failed"?

Clearly because those games that will represent that "new gen of online racing" haven't even launched yet, let alone to give them 6 or 12 months to find their footing before we get to give actual judgments of doom or glory.

Disclaimer, I am really happy with criticism GTS is getting, it will nudge PD into giving a bit more of content for free or faster or something else in that regard. But I personaly hope they do not go backwards, I hope they really burn everything to the ground and redefine THEIR OWN game (if not the whole genre). There are other games for that old stuff, I'm still undecided to keep or cancel pCARS preorder, but it is there. I hope GT makes something new 👍

A Service Based Framework That lives across multiple console generations Definitely!!! With serious esport, but not only that, implementation. I want Sport

 

[DaveyGT1]

Considering strong competition, (even myself picking Pcars 2 first) and it's lack of cars and content will hurt it's sales. I reckon maybe around 1-2million.

 

[dbarrade]

From here: http://www.polyphony.co.jp/products/

Units
Gran Turismo 10,850,000
Gran Turismo 2 9,370,000
Gran Turismo 3 A-spec 14,890,000
Gran Turismo Concept Series 1,560,000
Gran Turismo 4 Prologue 1,400,000
Gran Turismo 4 11,760,000
Gran Turismo 5 Prologue 5,350,000
Gran Turismo PSP 4,660,000
Gran Turismo 5 11,950,000
Gran Turismo 6 5,170,000
Total 76,900,000

So GT Sport feels like a Prologue title, but so was GT3 compared to GT2... so I'm guessing the general populace doesn't care about that and it's all about the advertising and GT Sport advertising is everywhere, even on my PS VR Box.

GT6 was launched after the people that buy lots of games already moved to the PS4 imho so I don't think its sales are relevant to GT Sport.

PS4 seems to be on track with PS2 sales when aligned to launch based upon graphs I've seen.

My gut is telling me that GT Sport is going to sell like GT5 Prologue, but the numbers to me indicate it might sell like GT3.

I'm going to go in the middle with 10M.

 

[Tired Tyres]

The only way it sells that many is if it is included with every PS4 sold.

It's an online PvP eSport title. It therefore will gain the bulk of its sales from that group of players. Check the Trophy take up on online racing for Pro Cars or Assetto Corso to see what that means.

The big numbers are highly doubtful to happen as casuals will be stunningly unlikely to buy it.

 

[cutmeamango]

All I know is that F1 2017 is selling way less than F1 2016 in its biggest market: UK. And that's with F1 2016 making <150k there in 2016. It isn't doing too hot on PC either.

It's a shame since it looks like they really poured their hearts into this one, with tons of features, fixes and improvements. Hope the Codie studio that made it breaks even because F1 licensing is a known widow maker.

 

[Anomalistics]

The fact that it has no meaningful career mode will hurt it's figures.

 

[dbarrade]

It's an online PvP eSport title. It therefore will gain the bulk of its sales from that group of players. Check the Trophy take up on online racing for Pro Cars or Assetto Corso to see what that means.

Series creator Kazunori Yamauchi has stated the online portion of the game only accounts for roughly 15% of the game.

The fact that it has no meaningful career mode will hurt it's figures.

Polyphony Digital's Carter Jung shows us the new, deep campaign mode in Gran Turismo Sport.
​

The only way it sells that many is if it is included with every PS4 sold.

http://au.ign.com/articles/2017/08/22/gran-turismo-sport-ps4-bundle-revealed-for-europe

Coming October 18, the main bundle includes the limited edition, two tone silver and black 1TB slim console, and customized controller... Gran Turismo Sport will also be included...

The matching limited edition controller ... bundled with a standard edition of the game.

Several other bundles will feature the standard edition of Gran Turismo Sport:

• Jet Black PS4 1 TB edition
• Jet Black PS4 500GB edition
• Jet Black PS4 1TB + extra Jet Black DUALSHOCK 4 edition
• Jet Black PS4 Pro edition

I feel embarrassed quoting IGN when they can't even spell Gran Turismo.