Europe - The Official Thread

[Dennisch]

The referendum was not about staying or leaving the EU.

I know, but a no means no more negotiations.
So, Greece done ****ed themselves.

 

[Dotini]

With over half the votes counted and 61% 'no", Greeks are partying and reveling in their crushing victory.

 

[zzz_pt]

I know, but a no means no more negotiations.
So, Greece done ****ed themselves.

A No means exactly the opposite. A Yes would mean no more negotiations and accept that they're told to do by the EU, IMF, ECB.

 

[Dotini]

A No means exactly the opposite. A Yes would mean no more negotiations and accept that they're told to do by the EU, IMF, ECB.

Our friend is currently plumbing the depths of denial, first of the five stages of acceptance (denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance). We will be with him until he's better again.

 

[Dennisch]

A No means exactly the opposite. A Yes would mean no more negotiations and accept that they're told to do by the EU, IMF, ECB.

Wasn't it so that there wouldn't be anymore talks with a No? Because that was what Dijsselbloem said.

But then again, the last couple of days have been confusing at best, so let's wait a week to see what happens.

 

[zzz_pt]

@Dotini @Dennisch

Yes, let's see what happens then. If there will be negotiations or if Greece will be kicked out. And let's see if Dijsselboem really keeps his word. I bet he won't.

 

[mister dog]

Funny how the greek PM is saying a no vote will strengthen his position in negotiating a new deal with the people that he needs to lend money from (again).

One would think Europe would see this as a slap in the face, as in beggars can't be choosers?

 

[Jason115]

With over half the votes counted and 61% 'no", Greeks are partying and reveling in their crushing victory.

This whole sentence seems as if it was copy-pasted off of some rushed article... crushing victory against who?

 

[Robin]

It will be interesting to see what happens next, I guess Grexit then return to the Drachma. Most suggesting that whole process is going to be a nightmare to sort out.

I guess it makes sense because Greece would likely never be able to meet any payment deadlines if they kept accepting loans but I wonder if they ever will pay the existing loans back.

 

[Dotini]

This whole sentence seems as if it was copy-pasted off of some rushed article... crushing victory against who?

61+% is a crushing victory. On paper, it was against accepting the EU's terms. They will now get better terms.
I'm sure they feel elated to have stood up for their future against the austerity imposed by the EU. They have scored a crushing victory against the EU leadership and its austerity regime.

Of course, that victory is merely one battle in a long struggle to climb out of the hole.

There's one idea out there that's cute: Go back on the Drachma, print like heck and pay of the debt with the debased currency, then go back on the Euro. One creative way or other, their debt has to be liquidated.

 

[serialdreamer]

wanted to write in this thread since last week
and all i wanted to write was: you guys trust(and believe) your tv's very much
i was sure i was going to get a lot of diss for sayin that,so i waited.

the media are not there to inform us,the media are a part of the politic game

and everything that was said the last week by Dijsselbloem,schultz,etc was just part of the game

the future of so many countries for the people in charge is just a game.

 

[TenEightyOne]

There's one idea out there that's cute: Go back on the Drachma, print like heck and pay of the debt with the debased currency, then go back on the Euro. One creative way or other, their debt has to be liquidated.

There's no doubt now that they'll have to print drachma, the difficulty is what they base its value on... each banknote is a share of knack-all. Add the inevitable spiral of inflation and they're in deep deep trouble. It's hard to see how they could avoid the wheelbarrow-of-money-for-grocery-shopping scenario. Euro holding countries will, as you've been saying all along, have to do something to prevent the crisis. There's a large humanitarian issue there if nothing else.

and everything that was said the last week by Dijsselbloem,schultz,etc was just part of the game

the future of so many countries for the people in charge is just a game.

Not really, if you're a senior in continent-wide fiscal policy setting then the piss-poor performance of any financial managers in the region gives a cause for serious concern. Greece lied about its assets, its fiscal robustness and continues to fail in taking realistic steps to stem the internal financial haemorrhaging. It's far from a game when the Greek government hang its citizens out to dry on a principle.

 

[Dennisch]

wanted to write in this thread since last week
and all i wanted to write was: you guys trust(and believe) your tv's very much
i was sure i was going to get a lot of diss for sayin that,so i waited.

the media are not there to inform us,the media are a part of the politic game

and everything that was said the last week by Dijsselbloem,schultz,etc was just part of the game

the future of so many countries for the people in charge is just a game.

Do you have any sources for this or do we all need to whip out our tinfoil hats?

 

[zzz_pt]

I don't know what news or info some of you have that I don't for being so sure that Greece will be kicked out of the Euro. Why don't we wait and see? Did any of you heard about the IMF report saying that the austeriry plan was a faliure? Funny how the USA had to put some pressure for the TROIKA to release this document because the greeks where asking for it and no one wanted to bring it to the public.

Greece is not the bad guy and EU, IMF, ECB and german and french banks the good guys. Both parties have to say "mea cupla" in this whole mess. Also the Greeks never said they don't want to pay the debt afaik.

If anything, today the greeks have exposed the weaknesses and faliures of the European Union and the Euro in a way that was not so clear and evident as before.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I don't know what news or info some of you have that I don't for being so sure that Greece will be kicked out of the Euro.

Being "in the Euro" means having Euros available for currency and, in particular, government spending. That requires more massive open-ended loans with Greece currently refusing to stabilise its economy. Where do you think the Euros will come from?

Also the Greeks never said they don't want to pay the debt afaik.

They have missed payments, failed to meet internal spending targets and have asked for even greater loans despite all this.

If anything, today the greeks have exposed the weaknesses and faliures of the European Union and the Euro in a way that was not so clear and evident as before.

How so? I imagine you must mean that when Greece lied about its wealth, stability, taxable robustness and pension plans that the other countries were at fault for believing them?

 

[serialdreamer]

just check the downfall of euro in the markets around the globe today.
and let me know if you think there will be a grexit

 

[NLxAROSA]

Greece is not the bad guy and EU, IMF, ECB and german and french banks the good guys. Both parties have to say "mea cupla" in this whole mess. Also the Greeks never said they don't want to pay the debt afaik.

If anything, today the greeks have exposed the weaknesses and faliures of the European Union and the Euro in a way that was not so clear and evident as before.

👍

The reality is that we've all been shafted by our own governments. When first payments to Greece were planned in 2011, all of the population was against it because it was clear to everybody but our governments that it was a bottomless pit. Our government (especially in NL) vowed we would get it back with interest. Nobody believed it and they pushed on anyway, scaring the population about the apocalypse that was sure to follow with a Greek exit of the EU. Guess who was right? I applaud the Greeks for not accepting yet another shady deal.

I imagine you must mean that when Greece lied about its wealth, stability, taxable robustness and pension plans that the other countries were at fault for believing them?

Yes they were. Everybody knew this, and yet all the same politicians are now acting all surprised? It's disgusting. Just look up any economic newspaper from around 2000-2001 (when Greece entered the EU/EMU), or several economic publications in 2011 (when bailouts were starting). The warnings were there, backed up with facts, and in very large numbers. Any politician that denies this should be out of office because they're either lying, grossly incompetent or both.

That said, I'm not worried about the current situation, at least not on the EU scale. For the Greeks it's going to be hell though. And several other mediterranean countries will follow.

 

[mister dog]

👍

The reality is that we've all been shafted by our own governments. When first payments to Greece were planned in 2011, all of the population was against it because it was clear to everybody but our governments that it was a bottomless pit. Our government (especially in NL) vowed we would get it back with interest. Nobody believed it and they pushed on anyway, scaring the population about the apocalypse that was sure to follow with a Greek exit of the EU. Guess who was right? I applaud the Greeks for not accepting yet another shady deal.

Yes they were. Everybody knew this, and yet all the same politicians are now acting all surprised? It's disgusting. Just look up any economic newspaper from around 2000-2001 (when Greece entered the EU/EMU), or several economic publications in 2011 (when bailouts were starting). The warnings were there, backed up with facts, and in very large numbers. Any politician that denies this should be out of office because they're either lying, grossly incompetent or both.

That said, I'm not worried about the current situation, at least not on the EU scale. For the Greeks it's going to be hell though. And several other mediterranean countries will follow.

Question is what Europe should have done then back in 2011. Not lend them the money so they would go bankrupt? Loans worked with Spain for example as our economy is finally recovering now, so it could have worked with Greece also if it weren't for their utter incompetence at government levels.

 

[Barra333]

Taking with a pinch of salt, as I only heard it from an interviewee on TV, but apparently any repayments involving interest are not really tenable with the size of the debt - they can't afford the interest, let alone enough to pay down the loans.
Has anyone tried paying off a credit card using minimum payments?

 

[Dennisch]

Has anyone tried paying off a credit card using minimum payments?

Excellent comparison.

Edit.

Varoufakis has stepped down. As a peace offer.

Other news.

Banks around Europe are pretty certain that this No vote does lead to a Greek Exit.
It's all back to square 1 now.

Greece and the Greek people don't seem to understand in what kind of hole they are.

I know it.

It's a financial latrine.

 

[Hun200kmh]

Back in January the Greeks voted "No" to austerity. They shot themselves in the foot. Six months later they are queuing in front of the empty ATMs of their insolvent banks.

Now, in July they again voted against austerity. I guess this time they shot themselves in the head.

I fear - I really do - that it's only a question of weeks before the economic crisis turns ionto humanitarian crisis. No pharmaceutical products, no health care, no surgeries, no food.

Meanwhile Varoufakis (I think I'll sell my XJR1300 because of this guy, I really don't want nothing that relates me to him) is now going back to his Academy, where he will be nicely paid to keep saying the enormities he says while at the same time he'll be watching the country he drove to shambles collapse and he will say it's all the "Institutions" fault.

That guy, along with the compulsive liar that is Tsipras, should be tried in the Hague for crimes against humanity. Then again, the Greeks voted for him, so he can always say he was doing as the people wanted.

Rant over.


PS - I called a referendum last night at home. The question was: Should we keep on paying this household's expenses according to the contracts I signed? 100% turnout, 100% voted against paying. I feel very confident that the Bank, the insurance company, the Internet+Cable TV company, the Electric company, the Water company, the house maid and even the landlord will respect our democracy.

And ... because I heard some of them won't like to meet me at the negociating table, I have just decided to book some holidays with my wife. One month away, using the credit card. Yay! (must remind my 10-year old daughter to negotiate the restructuring of the credit card too, and do it hardtalking, because that's democracy being upheld!).


Rant NOW over (no, really).

 

[NLxAROSA]

Question is what Europe should have done then back in 2011. Not lend them the money so they would go bankrupt? Loans worked with Spain for example as our economy is finally recovering now, so it could have worked with Greece also if it weren't for their utter incompetence at government levels.

IMO, they should have done the right thing, because it was pretty clear that Greece wasn't able to pay back those loans, contrary to Spain. You just don't sell an even more expensive loan to someone already unable to pay the current one. And people are now suggesting to do the exact same thing today? Absolutely insane. There are laws in place in NL that forbid this at a personal level, but it's okay to do this to a whole country?

Let the country blow and start over again, it's the only way out. I'd rather give (lots of) money to humanitarian aid for the Greek people than to give it to their government and banks.

 

[Hun200kmh]

That's not what happened Lars. Here some facts:

On 2 May 2010, the European Commission, European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), later nicknamed the Troika, responded by launching a €110 billion bailout loan to rescue Greece from sovereign default and cover its financial needs throughout May 2010 until June 2013, conditional on implementation of austerity measures, structural reforms, and privatization of government assets.[14] A year later, a worsened recession along with a delayed implementation by the Greek government of the agreed conditions in the bailout programme revealed the need for Greece to receive a second bailout worth€130 billion (including a bank recapitalization package worth €48bn), while all private creditors holding Greek government bonds were required at the same time to sign a deal accepting extended maturities, lower interest rates, and a 53.5% face value loss. The second bailout programme was finally ratified by all parties in February 2012, and by effect extended the first programme, meaning a total of €240 billion was to be transferred at regular tranches throughout the period of May 2010 to December 2014. Due to a worsened recession and continued delay of implementation of the conditions in the bailout programme, in December 2012 the Troika agreed to provide Greece with a last round of significant debt relief measures, while the IMF extended its support with an extra €8.2bn of loans to be transferred during the period of January 2015 to March 2016.

The fourth review of the bailout programme revealed development of some unexpected upcoming financing gaps.[15][16] Due to an improved outlook for the Greek economy, with achievement of a government structural surplus both in 2013 and 2014 – along with a decline of the unemployment rate and return of positive economic growth in 2014,[17][18] it was possible for the Greek government to regain access to the private lending market for the first time since eruption of its debt crisis – to the extent that its entire financing gap for 2014 was patched through a sale of bonds to private creditors.[19]

After 2014, however, it all went downhill ... courtesy of the "NO" to austerity.

 

[Dotini]

In a pinch, the Greeks could print Euros!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...U-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html
...creditors will find themselves be in a morally indefensible position if they refuse to listen to the voice of the Greek people, especially since the International Monetary Fund last week validated Syriza's core claim that Greece's debt cannot be repaid.

 

[TenEightyOne]

IMO, they should have done the right thing, because it was pretty clear that Greece wasn't able to pay back those loans, contrary to Spain. You just don't sell an even more expensive loan to someone already unable to pay the current one.

If it was all a big game of Sim City then I'd agree. In practicality the inhabitants of Greece deserve protection as much as anyone else. When they start being paid in a worthless currency, when the country can't afford pompiers or policemen, when hospital wards can't be opened, when water can't be cleaned, when roads can't be kept safe... that's a much bigger issue.

Greece may have had enough rope to hang themselves but they've also had enough rope to pull themselves back over the edge.

In a pinch, the Greeks could print Euros!

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/...U-demands-as-Syriza-readies-IOU-currency.html
...creditors will find themselves be in a morally indefensible position if they refuse to listen to the voice of the Greek people, especially since the International Monetary Fund last week validated Syriza's core claim that Greece's debt cannot be repaid.

Difficult... they can requisition the Bank of Greece and print Greco-faced 20 Euro notes... but with every note they print the more they devalue them. It's meaningless monopoly-money at that point...

 

[Sanji Himura]

Funny how the greek PM is saying a no vote will strengthen his position in negotiating a new deal with the people that he needs to lend money from (again).

One would think Europe would see this as a slap in the face, as in beggars can't be choosers?

Especially when one considers that Greece is already in default with the IMF for missed payments. Apparently the New York Stock Exchange was betting the wrong way since it is down nearly 89.5 points with half the day remaining today. It will be like 2008 all over again.

 

[NLxAROSA]

After 2014, however, it all went downhill ... courtesy of the "NO" to austerity.

Nouriel Roubini on Greece in 2010: http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/a3874e80-82e8-11df-8b15-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3f7voPqpw

Nouriel Roubini on Greece again in 2011:
http://www.economonitor.com/nouriel...s-greece-should-default-and-abandon-the-euro/

NYT, 2011: http://www.nytimes.com/2011/06/06/business/global/06euro.html?_r=0

German economists on Greece in 2012: http://www.spiegel.de/international...ts-warn-greece-will-not-recover-a-860793.html

Hans-Werner Sinn on Greece in 2012: http://www.nu.nl/economie/2812986/griekenland-moet-euro.html

Moodys on Greece in 2012: http://www.nu.nl/griekenland/2810062/moodys-ziet-grieks-vertrek-euro-dichterbij-komen.html

And these are just a few samples from a huge array of articles from various sources all around the world. Saying it wasn't until 2014 that everything went downhill is just not true. And this is only the economic side of it.

Not posted any of the Dutch economists BTW, but the discussion over here regarding supporting Greece in the last few years all the way back to 2010 has been enormous.

If it was all a big game of Sim City then I'd agree. In practicality the inhabitants of Greece deserve protection as much as anyone else. When they start being paid in a worthless currency, when the country can't afford pompiers or policemen, when hospital wards can't be opened, when water can't be cleaned, when roads can't be kept safe... that's a much bigger issue.

Yes, the tragedy is enormous. Pensions are already not being paid, etc. And throwing more loans at them won't help them, but make it even worse.

 

[Touring Mars]

Greece done just killed themselves.

Oxi-morons.

I actually don't think this vote is going to change anything - the situation on the ground hasn't changed at all... the Greek government were already opposed to the terms of the bailout, and were voted in on that basis in the first place. But Greece still needs financial assistance and debt relief from somewhere, and no amount of 'brave' statements of public support can change that fact - the EU may need to rethink their strategy, but when all is said and done, Greece are very much still the ones who need help, and are not/have never been in a position to call the shots.

Greeks are partying and reveling in their crushing victory.

What exactly have they won?

 

[mister dog]

I'm normally a socialist, but seeing most socialists around Europe actually supporting the Greeks not having a clue, and rallying against the 'evil' banks that lend them 260 billion euros to save their economy, makes me doubt my political preferences now...

There's sharing and being compassionate with eachother, but there's also such a thing as leachers taking advantage and not giving a crap and they don't seem to understand the difference here.

 

[Dennisch]

Exactly.

Greece is that leech of society with 20 unpaid credit cards.