The higher-tier reward car was 80% in FH4, but 45pt is 69-73% of the usual 61-65pt available each season in FH5. You can miss out the 10pt Trial, the 3pt Arcade, 3pt Playground, 2pt Eliminator, and the 2pt challenge that usually uses Open and still hit 45.
Also the overwhelming majority of early FH5 players are Game Pass players, and it's likely the majority of those are GPU subscribers, which includes online multiplayer (or Xbox Gold, or whatever it's called this week), taking advantage of the introductory and BF offers - including the three-month discount.