Gran Turismo 7 Releasing in "First Half of 2021"

[Shingo_civic]

GT6 has over 1200 cars, so I don't know why GT7 can't have more than that. I hope they do.

At launch i think we will have more or less 500 cars which would be more than enought in my opinion

 

[ScottPuss20]

1988 Fury/Skaife Bathurst car

http://www.heritagetouringcars.com.au/htc-car-profile-carey-mcmahons-nissan-skyline-gts-r/

The day he talks about where John Bowe drove it at Eastern Creek for a Unique Cars story it ended up in the wall. We repaired it & repainted it after that incident.

I've definitely seen the old R31's racing, but I don't think I've seen this one in particular.

The sad thing is that he’s genuinely not. That’s just him.

That's sad.

 

[fd24]

Well GT6 holds the guinness world records for the most cars in a video game, so I maybe thought GT7 can break that record.

 

[regnar]

Since this will be a full blown GT, also throw in the mix a certain number of cars (probably small) will have some type of customization & race modifications which slows down the overall number of cars created for the game.

 

[Samus]

We might get to 500 eventually, but I really don't think we'll see a significant uplift in car numbers at launch, there's been too much work around the single player side, ray tracing etc to just churn out another game with a massive number of cars.

The people modelling the cars aren't doing any other jobs. If there is a big focus on single player, that isn't going to affect the speed of the car modelling team. It might affect the cars chosen to model though.

I think it's highly likely they aim for that phycological barrier, even if it's barely over it, like 507 or whatever, and they get over the line with some questionable dupes. It just makes good advertising, 500+ cars, the big round number.

As with pretty much everything about GT7 though, we just don't have the information. How many models were done during GTS dev and held back? How many outsourced modellers have they hired, when were they first hired and how long did they work for? All these questions will obviously have a big impact on how many cars they have.

 

[MrRaahzeel]

We all dream to have the similar amount and variety of cars that GT4, GT5 or GT6 had when the game was released but i don't feel it will be the case with GT7 (i hope im wrong) but based on what GTSport offer us i feel that we will be disappointed at the end of the day.

We will have the same tracks that we have already on GTSport with couple extras from old GT's and the same cars also with couple extras.

Seeing the Nissan GT-R in 3 or 4 different version for exemple on GTSport was a huge disappointement for me (Road version, Rally version, GT3 and GT4 version)

That's why i really want to feel the same vibes as we used to have on GT4, GT5 and GT6 because yes the graphics and game mode is going to be cool but the cars and the tracks it does matter !

 

[Quakebass]

I expect low 400s to maybe 450 at launch. If we get 500 or more I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

 

[dimassa19]

I expect low 400s to maybe 450 at launch. If we get 500 or more I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

I'm from the 700 cars club. :tup:

 

[05XR8]

Hopefully, just a few cars I really want, make it in the game. Any number over that, are bonus.

 

[Zlork]

I think 400-500 cars, it's already well. And more with updates....

 

[GBalao888]

I’m predicting somewhere around 650 (minimum) to 750 cars (maximum) at launch for GT7, thereabouts.

If Polyphony alone can produce roughly around 100 cars in a year with just their workforce, then we should also take into consideration their outsourcing efforts which can allow for more cars to be built at a consistent quality at a short amount of time.

Only who knows how many people or groups that Polyphony has outsourced so far (there are two that we know of, ModelingCafe and an Indian modeling firm). Maybe there are more that we don’t know of yet.

Currently, GT Sport in its latest form has 336 cars, and throughout last year and this year, the fact that we’ve been getting less cars in updates might have been attributed that Polyphony were working on GT7 when they had the PS5 devkits, showcasing advanced builds of GT Sport from there that would be the foundation of the new game, and that they were slowing down on GT Sport’s lifespan.

 

[DriveSpark]

What makes you think they don't have at least 22 people doing nothing but modelling cars? They do have a couple of hundered people working for them and they are outsourcing some work (though we don't know how much).

For reference, PD released approximately 100 cars in a year for GT Sport (which if more content than 22 people at 1 car every 3 months could churn out).

Also it's been about a year since they were releasing regular car packs for GT Sport so assuming they did not hold back any cars for GT7 and everything they modelled was released for GT Sport that means you're looking at at least 100 new cars based on that assumption.

It is all assumptions at this point, but I don't see why you think they could have only modelled 25 new cars for GT7 in the time since focus shifted from GT Sport content to GT7 content. And that's even if you base your numbers on them not doing any car modelling work for GT7 that didn't appear in GT Sport prior to this year.

You are right, it is all assumptions.

The article about outsourcing says that they worked on models for GT Sport, so even if they do have 20 or so people at the outsourcer working, they haven't all been doing GT7 work.
As far as I can find they never got to that 100 cars a year - 2018 they release about 70 from what I can find online, something like 45 last year.

As you mention, they could be losing some cars due to licensing too.

Its well established that from the outside Polyphony appear to move at a glacial pace, so even with outsourcers on board we're saying thay've modelled 175+ cars, built the single player section, revamped graphics with ray tracing plus whatever else we haven't seen yet and tested all of that and are no more than 6 months away from final build? It just seems incredibly unlikely.

The days of having to have everything in the first release are gone - as GT sport showed, you can put a release out and add content over time. There is no need to launch with 500+ cars, even if that is the eventual aim.

The people modelling the cars aren't doing any other jobs. If there is a big focus on single player, that isn't going to affect the speed of the car modelling team. It might affect the cars chosen to model though.

Number of people isn't the issue, the budget to pay those people is a different matter. Yes PD are well funded, but there will still be a budget for development.
Also, if Kaz is obsessed with perfection as is often touted there could easily be bottlenecks for testing/approval to slow things down, PD have never rushed to put a game out yet, don't see why this one would be any different.



Whats going to happen is that people will make up their mind its going to release with a daft number of cars, like 700. When it arrives and doesn't hit their magic number they'll claim it as a failure.
Keep expectations low and not be disappointed. Who knows, you might even be pleasantly surprised.

 

[suomi1]

I’m predicting somewhere around 650 (minimum) to 750 cars (maximum) at launch for GT7, thereabouts.

I go on this forecast too. If we consider that a fair amount of road cars will have their proper Gr.4 / Gr.3 (etc...) versions, numbers could quickly increase. 500/550 is what I expect as a minimum, but without counting the different versions of a same car, I think they can manage this.

 

[Dave A]

You are right, it is all assumptions.

The article about outsourcing says that they worked on models for GT Sport, so even if they do have 20 or so people at the outsourcer working, they haven't all been doing GT7 work.
As far as I can find they never got to that 100 cars a year - 2018 they release about 70 from what I can find online, something like 45 last year.

As you mention, they could be losing some cars due to licensing too.

True, but I think it's safe to bet since we've already seen GT Sport content in the GT7 reveal trailer that the cars modelled for GT Sport were modelled for GT7 in the process. They could well be the exact same assets albeit viewed in native 4k with RTS.

Also between 22 December 2017 and 5 December 2018 there were 103 cars added to GT Sport through updates.

Its well established that from the outside Polyphony appear to move at a glacial pace, so even with outsourcers on board we're saying thay've modelled 175+ cars, built the single player section, revamped graphics with ray tracing plus whatever else we haven't seen yet and tested all of that and are no more than 6 months away from final build? It just seems incredibly unlikely.

I don't see how the ray tracing slows down the car modelling, I expect we will see all if not most of the cars from GT Sport in GT7 and they are probably the same assets as were used in GT Sport, at most based on a higher LOD.

The days of having to have everything in the first release are gone - as GT sport showed, you can put a release out and add content over time. There is no need to launch with 500+ cars, even if that is the eventual aim.

It is true that you sadly don't have to release a game with all of it's features at launch, but I dont see a scenario where GT7 doesn't up the content from what GT Sport has right now and GT Sport has 325 cars.

Number of people isn't the issue, the budget to pay those people is a different matter. Yes PD are well funded, but there will still be a budget for development.

I'm not sure I follow this point, PD already hire these people, they are already paying them. The budget for a Gran Turismo game is into the high millions. The marketing budget alone for a AAA game can reach $100m. The staff wages is small fry.

Also, if Kaz is obsessed with perfection as is often touted there could easily be bottlenecks for testing/approval to slow things down, PD have never rushed to put a game out yet, don't see why this one would be any different.

A self-proclaimed perfectionist, there's no evidence he actually is or that the corporate machine that is Sony hasn't forced his hand. Again I don't see how that's relevant to the content in GT7, he hasn't had issue with inconsistent content quality since GT5 or earlier.

Whats going to happen is that people will make up their mind its going to release with a daft number of cars, like 700. When it arrives and doesn't hit their magic number they'll claim it as a failure.
Keep expectations low and not be disappointed. Who knows, you might even be pleasantly surprised.

This is very true, people will build up a number in their minds and then criticise Polyphony if that number isn't reached, but the number I've based on does have some logic to it. It's certainly speculative and based on assumptions but it's not entirely pie in the sky. But time will tell and people expecting 400 cars or less aren't going to be disspointed if it releases with 500 so there's no harm in keeping expectations in check.

 

[karelpipa]

.....I got GT Sport way after release and was so happy to finally play the next game in the series but i was so disappointed after a few seconds. I hoped that they will go back and fix this or to use "1:1 steering", what i mean by that is, if i push the stick to the right for like 10%, i want the steering to turn for 10% (doesnt have to be linear thats not my point) all the way up to 100% stick -> 100% steering. This is not the case in GT Sport.

I know what you are talking about. 1:1 steering was present in GT1-3, then GT5-6 (if you set steering sensivity high enough) GT4 and GTS emulates the wheel (=that inside the car) rotation, but this is really hard for your brain to guess exactly right, so countersteering and precise steering is very, very hard.
In GT5 Prologue it was also very pronounciated.
This means that driving fast cars is almost impossible on joypad. Even More against a wheel user.

On the other hand countersteering on joypad in GT5-6 was so easy on joypad againts wheel users (not counting aliens), that it was almost a cheating.

 

[Nielsen]

Just to have a hole list of cars from past, present to future. That's it.

Through the lifespan of GT Sport they’ve been releasing 4K-compatible models of fan-favourite cars from the PS2 era. If they keep doing this with GT7, then there won’t even be much reason to want all those standard cars back. Many of them were near-duplicates and random 2000s cars that didn’t age well, anyway.

 

[LeGeNd-1]

I'm gonna be the devil's advocate here and say that I prefer GT7 to be released end of 2021 at the earliest. Assuming PD started switching resources from GTS to GT7 around early this year (when GTS updates start to thin out), if GT7 releases in first half of 2021 it will only mean 1.5 years of development. Granted most of the assets are carried over (cars/tracks), but the "big" features need more time than this. A proper career mode, UI overhaul, tuning/visual customization, better physics, better AI, day night cycle/dynamic weather/ray tracing, all the online stuff (DR/SR, penalty, damage, matchmaking, server stability) and the ancillary features (livery editor, photomode, sharing/gifting), plus who knows what other new features they are planning. With games getting more complex, 2 years is usually the norm if you want a real big step up to next gen.

According to wikipedia:
GTS at launch Oct 2017 - 168 cars, 29 track layouts
GTS at Dec 2019 - 324 cars, 82 track layouts

So that's an increase of 156 cars and 53 layouts over 26 months - or 6 cars and 2 layouts per month on average.

Let's say PD is holding content back from GTS and also their recent outsourcing work helps to increase that to 10 cars and 5 layouts per month.

Assuming PD continues at that rate since Jan 2020 until Jun 2021, GT7 at launch would have approx 504 cars and 172 layouts. Not bad

 

[numbnuts70]

I expect that if launched in early 2021, it'll be a case of an upper limit of 2-300 cars (a relatively low number) then it'll be car packs to purchase and micro-transactions all the way.

They'll probably have you paying 20p for an oil change.

Whats the odds on the sharing of cars (dirty oil TT specials were great) will still be there?

 

[PaMu1337]

I'm gonna be the devil's advocate here and say that I prefer GT7 to be released end of 2021 at the earliest. Assuming PD started switching resources from GTS to GT7 around early this year (when GTS updates start to thin out), if GT7 releases in first half of 2021 it will only mean 1.5 years of development. Granted most of the assets are carried over (cars/tracks), but the "big" features need more time than this. A proper career mode, UI overhaul, tuning/visual customization, better physics, better AI, day night cycle/dynamic weather/ray tracing, all the online stuff (DR/SR, penalty, damage, matchmaking, server stability) and the ancillary features (livery editor, photomode, sharing/gifting), plus who knows what other new features they are planning. With games getting more complex, 2 years is usually the norm if you want a real big step up to next gen.

According to wikipedia:
GTS at launch Oct 2017 - 168 cars, 29 track layouts
GTS at Dec 2019 - 324 cars, 82 track layouts

So that's an increase of 156 cars and 53 layouts over 26 months - or 6 cars and 2 layouts per month on average.

Let's say PD is holding content back from GTS and also their recent outsourcing work helps to increase that to 10 cars and 5 layouts per month.

Assuming PD continues at that rate since Jan 2020 until Jun 2021, GT7 at launch would have approx 504 cars and 172 layouts. Not bad

They most likely started GT7 development right after GTS released. I highly doubt the entire company was working on updates only. Besides that, I think there might be some features which were already in development for GTS, but didn't work properly on PS4

 

[ivann]

I expect no less than 2000 cars

 

[TS050]

I expect no less than 2000 cars

You have unrealistic expectations.

 

[SSQES]

You have unrealistic expectations.

Obvious bait is obvious

 

[05XR8]

It's not really bait. I can expect every car that is in every Gran Turismo. Doesn't mean we'll get them all.
We all can expect all we want. In the end, we'll get what we get.

 

[Dave A]

I'm gonna be the devil's advocate here and say that I prefer GT7 to be released end of 2021 at the earliest. Assuming PD started switching resources from GTS to GT7 around early this year (when GTS updates start to thin out), if GT7 releases in first half of 2021 it will only mean 1.5 years of development. Granted most of the assets are carried over (cars/tracks), but the "big" features need more time than this. A proper career mode, UI overhaul, tuning/visual customization, better physics, better AI, day night cycle/dynamic weather/ray tracing, all the online stuff (DR/SR, penalty, damage, matchmaking, server stability) and the ancillary features (livery editor, photomode, sharing/gifting), plus who knows what other new features they are planning. With games getting more complex, 2 years is usually the norm if you want a real big step up to next gen.

According to wikipedia:
GTS at launch Oct 2017 - 168 cars, 29 track layouts
GTS at Dec 2019 - 324 cars, 82 track layouts

So that's an increase of 156 cars and 53 layouts over 26 months - or 6 cars and 2 layouts per month on average.

Let's say PD is holding content back from GTS and also their recent outsourcing work helps to increase that to 10 cars and 5 layouts per month.

Assuming PD continues at that rate since Jan 2020 until Jun 2021, GT7 at launch would have approx 504 cars and 172 layouts. Not bad

I appreciate a bit of devils advocacy every now and then, but one thing that I would like to state before I respond specific points is regarding my preferred release date. I want GT7 when it's ready (not when it's perfect, it'll never come), be that early 2021, mid-2021, late 2021, 2022 etc. I don't mind waiting, I would prefer the game to feel great and complete at the time of it's release.

Onto your advocacy, there is no way GT7 only began development early this year. It takes approximately a year to fully model and integrate a new track (location not layout) into a game and they showed off Trial Mountin in June (IIRC). GT7 will have likely began development by the time GT Sport released. Polyphony would have had teams working on GT Sport and teams working on GT7 in tandem.

The average main GT game releases 2.8 years after the previous game released, some took longer, some took less time, so by mid 2021 assuming GT7 does release then, it would have had roughly 3 1/2 years since GT Sport released.

Your content maths adds up if the right assumptions are made but I don't agree wholly with it. I do agree we can probably assume most, if not all of the cars in GT Sport will appear in GT7. But your average of 6 cars per month includes when GT Sport content was on the wind down. Polyphony released 103 cars in a 12 month period at thier peak of providing GT Sport content updates. So we do have some form of basis for what we can expect output wise, but I think that there is some basis to be more optomistic than your calcualtions are for how fast they can model the cars.

The tracks however I am less optomistic about, although we have seen a huge increase in the number of track layouts in GT Sport, with 2 new ones arriving each month on average, a new layout is not a new location and the effort needed to create a whole new track location is not on that same scale. We likely will only see a handfull of new tracks added to GT7 on top of the ones in GT Sport in my opinion.

 

[redhed17]

I'm gonna be the devil's advocate here and say that I prefer GT7 to be released end of 2021 at the earliest. Assuming PD started switching resources from GTS to GT7 around early this year (when GTS updates start to thin out)

Haven't the GTS updates already started thinning out! There was one car this month, no new tracks. The previous few months, not very much. It seems quite a log time since there were 5 cars in an update too.

Hopefully this indicates they have been concentrating on GT7, and for me at least, I hope it is not far off.

 

[LeGeNd-1]

They most likely started GT7 development right after GTS released. I highly doubt the entire company was working on updates only. Besides that, I think there might be some features which were already in development for GTS, but didn't work properly on PS4

Well yes, every GT game builds the foundation for the next. That's why when you go into all the hacking threads in the older games people always find lots of unused leftover files. But I genuinely feel that PD puts a lot of focus into GT Sport, given the extensive post launch support. I'm guessing maybe 75% of the manpower is still devoted to GTS until last year, and early this year is when they started shifting fully to GT7.

When you look at the gap between GT5 and GT6, it was 3 years. GT5 didn't have as much post launch support as GTS did. GT6 ended up being GT5 Spec 3.0. It wasn't a big jump like GT1>GT2 or GT3>GT4. I want the next GT game as much as anyone, but I don't want it to be yet another GT Sport 2 with people complaining of lack of content and half baked career mode on release.

I appreciate a bit of devils advocacy every now and then, but one thing that I would like to state before I respond specific points is regarding my preferred release date. I want GT7 when it's ready (not when it's perfect, it'll never come), be that early 2021, mid-2021, late 2021, 2022 etc. I don't mind waiting, I would prefer the game to feel great and complete at the time of it's release.

Onto your advocacy, there is no way GT7 only began development early this year. It takes approximately a year to fully model and integrate a new track (location not layout) into a game and they showed off Trial Mountin in June (IIRC). GT7 will have likely began development by the time GT Sport released. Polyphony would have had teams working on GT Sport and teams working on GT7 in tandem.

The average main GT game releases 2.8 years after the previous game released, some took longer, some took less time, so by mid 2021 assuming GT7 does release then, it would have had roughly 3 1/2 years since GT Sport released.

Your content maths adds up if the right assumptions are made but I don't agree wholly with it. I do agree we can probably assume most, if not all of the cars in GT Sport will appear in GT7. But your average of 6 cars per month includes when GT Sport content was on the wind down. Polyphony released 103 cars in a 12 month period at thier peak of providing GT Sport content updates. So we do have some form of basis for what we can expect output wise, but I think that there is some basis to be more optomistic than your calcualtions are for how fast they can model the cars.

The tracks however I am less optomistic about, although we have seen a huge increase in the number of track layouts in GT Sport, with 2 new ones arriving each month on average, a new layout is not a new location and the effort needed to create a whole new track location is not on that same scale. We likely will only see a handfull of new tracks added to GT7 on top of the ones in GT Sport in my opinion.

Yes, my main concern is that I want the game to be fully ready at release (see my reply above). From all we've seen in the trailers, and the lack of any new promo material so far, I feel GT7 is just GTS 2 with the world map/car upgrade system thrown in. Honestly, after being with the series since the beginning, the whole single player experience is starting to get stale. Not to mention the grinding if economy system isn't improved. Even if they just improve the physics, AI and make a more involving career mode, that would help make things more interesting.

I agree the track count is probably too optimistic. It was just a quick back of the paper calculation

Haven't the GTS updates already started thinning out! There was one car this month, no new tracks. The previous few months, not very much. It seems quite a log time since there were 5 cars in an update too.

Hopefully this indicates they have been concentrating on GT7, and for me at least, I hope it is not far off.

That's what I said - the updates started thinning out from Jan 2020. Dec 2019 was the last "major" update we had with 7 cars and Laguna Seca.

 

[o000o]

When GT Sport came out IIRC Kaz said he hoped to get to 500 cars, so they got about half way to that ?

There was an article here recently that said PD can make a car model in 3 months due to outsourcing which they've been doing since 2018.
175 cars is 525 man months of work.
Previously it was reckoned that a car took 6 months to model.

So, lets say they've been working on GT7 only stuff since 2018 (they haven't) it would require a team of 22 people doing nothing but modelling cars.

We might get to 500 eventually, but I really don't think we'll see a significant uplift in car numbers at launch, there's been too much work around the single player side, ray tracing etc to just churn out another game with a massive number of cars.

You sure there would be much work at the single player side? Or potentially just inserting old events?

 

[05XR8]

With the GRY added to the GTS car list, that's 337 cars. The 4 "new" cars we see in the trailer, possibly brings that to 341 cars.
Count the Porsche concepts and Lambo Lambo, that makes 344.

Add possible GT Awards cars that have never been added and that gets us to the 350 mark. Big questions is, what cars do PD delete and/or update? Even if PD keep all cars from GTS, without duplicates, another 50 are easy.

Starion, the Lancia rally cars, drift cars, possible classic Lamborghini, new cars like the C8, new M4, new Vantage, new Mustang, new Civic, etc., will push it to 400. This is before race car variants.

It's totally doable for new race cars to exist with the current race cars in GTS. BMW and AMG have some from old and new spec. Up to date race cars from those brands and JDM race cars like Super GT, lift the car count. Add up to date GT4-type, WEC, TCR-type race cars and raises the car list yet again.

If PD & outsourcing(os) have been modelling from 2017, 500 cars at launch, is realistic.

Offline racing content, is probably easy to program as well. Look at Daily Races and FIA. The trick is going to be the customisation. How does that look?
Car building? Add/delete OEM parts? ME/GTAuto/PartsStore? For us offline players, replayability is paramount. That's the main "?"

 

[AlbertaGamer]

What if the used cars were PS3/PS4 Models?

That could increase numbers... just a little thought of mine.

 

[Dave A]

What if the used cars were PS3/PS4 Models?

That could increase numbers... just a little thought of mine.

I think we will get most if not all of the cars from GT Sport, we've already seen some of them in the initial trailer.

Whether what we see in GT7 are the showroom quality LOD's or even higher remains to be seen, but I think we're at a point where the level of detail in the models is high enough where the bigger improvements are to be had in the native 4k and the lighting and effects.

I don't think we will see the PS3 models imported as they were in GT5 and/or 6, but I do think we already have seen some of the cars from GT Sport in GT7 and that we will see more them.

Not that it's a bad thing, the level of detail is high enough already and there are diminishing returns for doubling the polygon count at the stage IMO.