Gran Turismo at 65%!!!

[daus26]

The developers themselves would have to guess how far completed it is? Think not.

I could guess (and have done several times in the forum) at how far GT5 is developed based on information like the, at the time, expected release of December.

I would probably think so. I don't think they have a meter that would tell them the exact percentage on how far they have progressed in the development. Best to say its more of an estimate.

Guessing base on a release window is not enough or I don't think it's as accurate. The percentage would have to be based on many things, and we probably wouldn't know a lot of them. If you do like to guess by the release window, wouldn't you rather think 65% is reasonable?

Anyway, we're getting farther away from my point. Whether or not the source of that magazine is valid or not, we don't know. You do know it's from the official TGS magazine right?

 

[TorqueHappenS08]

Could have been worse, the numbers could be switched around... or worse there could havbe only been one number.

 

[Sureboss]

I would probably think so. I don't think they have a meter that would tell them the exact percentage on how far they have progressed in the development. Best to say its more of an estimate.

Guessing base on a release window is not enough or I don't think it's as accurate. The percentage would have to be based on many things, and we probably wouldn't know a lot of them. If you do like to guess by the release window, wouldn't you rather think 65% is reasonable?

Anyway, we're getting farther away from my point. Whether or not the source of that magazine is valid or not, we don't know. You do know it's from the official TGS magazine right?

Yes, but unless it came from an official PD/Sony source, it doesn't mean anything, even if it is from the TGS magazine, they won't know the development stages that GT5 is in. Fact is, March 2010 release for Japan, so there is another 4 months or so of development/touching up. I'd say 85% would be a more accurate guess, if not more completed than that. A lot of the last stages of a big development are tweaking rather than actually building code.

 

[Famine]

And even if it were true, it doesn't reflect the time taken or the time remaining.

Take a Sudoku puzzle which takes you 5 minutes. The first 50% of it might take you 4 minutes, but the more you do, the easier it is to do the rest.

 

[Sureboss]

Aye, the time consuming stuff is always animation. Why you'll never get animation changes in any patch.

950 odd cars, yeh, that's not easy!

 

[Blitz187]

I agree, they say $5 me love you long time, they take your $5 and run away and never love you

Sorry for getting into this conversation late, but this comment made my day..

 

[yogaflame]

You could actually blame or maybe thank the critics about the damage feature that is why Pd went back to the drawing board and maybe they decided to give all 950 cards with that feature.

 

[GilesGuthrie]

And even if it were true, it doesn't reflect the time taken or the time remaining.

Take a Sudoku puzzle which takes you 5 minutes. The first 50% of it might take you 4 minutes, but the more you do, the easier it is to do the rest.

Yes, but the first 80% of the project takes 80% of the available time.

Then the remaining 20% of the project also takes 80%. It's Pareto's Law

 

[H3avyM3tal]

^So if they worked 4 years to get to, say, 80%, and then another 2 years to get the 20% left?

Besides, I don't think there ever was 'available time' (that is, a deadline) to complete the game.

 

[Sureboss]

They'd have had deadlines for stages of development. Then at x stage of that development they'd then say, "We can now decide on a release date."

 

[SuperCobraJet]

I'm not by any means a programing Guru or expert, nor claim to be.

However in what areas I have been involved with it, the last 50% is always more time and resource consumptive than the first 50%. Simply by virtue of the growing size and complexity of the program as it transitions toward completion. Tweaks, changes and additions toward the end take more and more time to proof and evaluate against a larger and larger interconnection of operabilities.

Possibly some one with extensive programing experience could wiegh in on this.

I guess in the end it doesn't matter too much if its 1% or 99%, it won't be playable until March 2010 or later.





Edit: Just thought I would add this, which relates to earlier posts concerning "Sony marketing Genius"

From Joystiq:

"we overheard two Microsoft exhibitors discussing the reception of the recently released Forza Motorsport 3 demo.

Microsoft Rep #1: "Seems like a lot of people like the demo."
Microsoft Rep #2: "Yeah, well we really like that GT5 release date!"

With Gran Turismo 5 launching in 2010, it looks like Forza Motorsport 3 won't have much traffic to contend with when it launches this October. And boy, is Microsoft happy about it."

 

[pay2021]

I think, if they are in 65% and they release the game in march, the next 35% take 6 months, SO if 35% are 6 months they have started the game a 1 year ago, in that proportion.

I dont think they started to development 1 year ago, so, IMO they pushed the release date.

I was clear?

Sorry my english.

 

[Schmo]

Ignore those % complete numbers, because to the public they mean very little. They have nothing to do with timetables or how long then have been working on it and how long they have to go. Let me give an example why:

I work as a Civil Engineer, I design Highways and Bridges. If I am working on a project for 4 years, and the client request 80% submitels at this 4 year mark, it doesnt mean I have 1 year left to finish, nor does it mean I have 20% left to do on the project. They could very well ask for a 90% in the next month or two, or 100%. The client asks for these % submits to keep track of the progress, then end up changing stuff (and pisses you off, part of the business though)

Also, I'm assuming that designing a game and road can be very similar that the longest part of the project is the start up time, all the preparation involved. The quickest part is the refining and tuning at the end. It starts up really slow, then the last year or so is when it looks complete, but I can refine it alot to make it more clear or overall better.

 

[SuperCobraJet]

Ignore those % complete numbers, because to the public they mean very little. They have nothing to do with timetables or how long then have been working on it and how long they have to go. Let me give an example why:

I work as a Civil Engineer, I design Highways and Bridges. If I am working on a project for 4 years, and the client request 80% submitels at this 4 year mark, it doesnt mean I have 1 year left to finish, nor does it mean I have 20% left to do on the project. They could very well ask for a 90% in the next month or two, or 100%. The client asks for these % submits to keep track of the progress, then end up changing stuff (and pisses you off, part of the business though)

Also, I'm assuming that designing a game and road can be very similar that the longest part of the project is the start up time, all the preparation involved. The quickest part is the refining and tuning at the end. It starts up really slow, then the last year or so is when it looks complete, but I can refine it alot to make it more clear or overall better.

Are you using CAD?

While your example is similar, I don't think it involves as much situational executives as a VG like GT5 would, since its primarily a fixed structure.
However, the traffic situational evaluations would be similar.

 

[Kryz11]

Since game is 65% complete, we still have room for Day night cycles, better damage, now they put lorrover, even small scratches on the benz!! whats next? livery editor, more body kits? etc etc.. i am glad game is delay for another 6 months. that way better physiscs simulation and all new features will really be a step forward over gt4

hmm new physics simulation? what you guys think? maybe an option for Arcade sim, Proffesional sim, and Simulation physics? yes please!!!

 

[patriotzero]

its hard to do somethin 65 percent rest is easy..Maybe they will run faster after 65 percent..
I think tracks and cars done..

 

[Preacher85]

I would think GT5 was and is built modularly (is that even a word?)

I would believe that 65% of the game has been 'stitched together' and working, while the other 35% or so is still being incorporated into the final build. That would make the March 2010 data a reasonable target. Do not think that there's 35% of content that has yet to be made be made, programming that must be done and whatever.

A guestimate for me would be they have completed 95% of everything, content, programming, design etc etc, 65% of that has been moulded together while the rest is being incorporated and final polishing.

Preach

 

[daus26]

Yes, but unless it came from an official PD/Sony source, it doesn't mean anything, even if it is from the TGS magazine, they won't know the development stages that GT5 is in. Fact is, March 2010 release for Japan, so there is another 4 months or so of development/touching up. I'd say 85% would be a more accurate guess, if not more completed than that. A lot of the last stages of a big development are tweaking rather than actually building code.

Well yea, but how would you know all those data weren't from the developers themselves. Unless you're a TGS expert who works there and knows that all those percentages were a simple educated guess by people of the norm, like us, I can't just follow what you say.

It looks here that we should trust your guess more than an official TGS article that we have no idea of what its credibility is. If I have to choose between you and the TGS article, I'd go with the TGS article.

 

[Ardius]

Well yea, but how would you know all those data weren't from the developers themselves. Unless you're a TGS expert who works there and knows that all those percentages were a simple educated guess by people of the norm, like us, I can't just follow what you say.

It looks here that we should trust your guess more than an official TGS article that we have no idea of what its credibility is. If I have to choose between you and the TGS article, I'd go with the TGS article.

He doesn't but then its not really the point. The point is, its not something to get all excited about because nothing is a confirmation until it comes from PD's or Sony's lips. Even then a game developer can only estimate, there can be unforseen problems that crop up, some bug that suddenly appears that needs fixing or a manufacturer requesting changes or whatever.

 

[daus26]

^I don't think you get it either. I don't care much really about the 65%, nor am I excited about it. The point that I keep trying to tell everyone is that we don't know if that figure is accurate or not. A lot of us just assume it's all fake when we know nothing about what that article is and its credibility. Again, can we say for sure that the article didn't get its data from the developers themselves? I don't think so. Thing had some accurate things in there too like 950 and probably other stuff in Japanese we couldn't make of, and all before the Sony conference.

 

[bpohl24]

I think that the percent is based on a list of content in categories for example:
1. Cars=25%
2. Tracks=25%
3. Damage=25%
4. Physics=25%

Each categorie has the same percentage but one may take more time then the other. Say they have the cars and tracks done which is 50%. When the cars and tracks take really 80% of the development time. therefore the second half will go much quicker.

p.s. above statistics made up for examples

 

[daus26]

Kazunori Yamauchi: If it's just to play the race or just run the game is over. However, if you want to go after the experience I would say we're at 65%.

That settles it. I knew that TGS magazine could have some credibility. So the approximation did come from PD/Kaz, as well as the developers for the other ones. Also, this might clear things up, on what he really meant when he said "we can release anytime we want."

 

[Rennsport]

WTF has Kaz & Company been doing for 6 years?!?! This is ridiculous.

 

[cdkjhi]

From Amar:

"Fifth wind says that reunion will happen in two forms, one greater than other and birdtamers will have freedom to decide which reunion they will attend. Greater reunion will ask for great sacrifice to be made in order to get all present and future treasures without new sacrifices needed, while smaller reunion will come in form already known, asking for more sacrifices if future treasures catches the eyes of the birdtamers."

If 65% means a game ready to race but with no damage, weather and night/day cycle (form already known - smaller reunion), they could release it in 2009 in USA/Europe.
And then, in March 2010, i would do more sacrifice (paying DLC for damage, etc. or even getting another copy at full price (greater reunion) with the new features.
Yeah, for this game i would do that.

 

[civicgsir]

From Amar:

"Fifth wind says that reunion will happen in two forms, one greater than other and birdtamers will have freedom to decide which reunion they will attend. Greater reunion will ask for great sacrifice to be made in order to get all present and future treasures without new sacrifices needed, while smaller reunion will come in form already known, asking for more sacrifices if future treasures catches the eyes of the birdtamers."

If 65% means a game ready to race but with no damage, weather and night/day cycle (form already known - smaller reunion), they could release it in 2009 in USA/Europe.
And then, in March 2010, i would do more sacrifice (paying DLC for damage, etc. or even getting another copy at full price (greater reunion) with the new features.
Yeah, for this game i would do that.

Prologue with all cars & tracks? yep, me too....how much? yeah, whats it gonna cost anyway?