NFL General Discussion

[Patrick]

I wouldn't call the Giants win in Lambeau lucky, that's a very good team playing a great game. It wouldn't have been as close as it was if the refs weren't on the Packer's side, giving them every call. But I would call the Niners win over the Saints lucky, forced five turnovers and they win by only four on a last second touchdown. They might not have even gotten that final touchdown if Gregg Williams wouldn't have continually blitzed and leave a tight end who runs a 4.3 forty man on man with a safety who might run a 4.5 forty.

This. 👍

 

[Omnis]

The next major evolution of the NFL will be freak TEs. The Patriots have garbage WRs and Brady still broke Marino's record. Vernon Davis won a playoff game.

 

[BLITZ_69]

Gronk & Hernandez are one of the best receiving duos in the NFL. I don't think you could have ever said that for TE's.

 

[cuco33]

One dimensional as in they aren't going to be able to run the ball so its all going to be on Eli. The whole "thank god we don't have to face the Saints, the 49ers are an easy opponent because were are different team" thing isn't a bit cocky? They got beat by the 49ers after coming off their best win of the regular season. They got real lucky against the Packers. Yet they are still running their mouth. Shut up and play. All they are doing is making the 49ers D even more hungry.

You don't run your mouth as underdogs, especially coming off a lucky win. Imagine what would of happen if the Packers caught half of those dropped passes.

Lucky win??? They beat the Packers by 17 points, almost double what GB put up, had a field goal blocked, and refs heavily favoring the Paclers AND it was in Green Bay! Big blue didn't even play their best game either. Lucky? More like well deserved win. Green Bay was favorites to win it all, lost only once and get schooled at home by the team no one gave any chance too.

Now that the Giants schooled Atlanta and almost doubled Green Bay, at Green Bay, I have all the confidence in the world that the Giants will go to the final and win another Super Bowl.

cliff notes: your 9'ers are going down

 

[t.o.]

 

[Blitz24]

New Orleans has hired a new DC. Steve Spaugnolo will be going to the Bayou.

 

[cullenand]

New Orleans has hired a new DC. Steve Spaugnolo will be going to the Bayou.

Hell yeah!!!! Welcome to the Big Easy Spags, hopefully you will do better than Gregg William's last two years.

 

[Villain]

But I would call the Niners win over the Saints lucky, forced five turnovers and they win by only four on a last second touchdown.

Forcing turnovers has been one of the things that the 49ers have done best all season. It's not new, it's not a fluke, and it wasn't lucky. The 49ers led the NFL in turnover differential. The Saints offense did exactly what everyone expected them to do. They threw like crazy and had a ton of success in doing so. That's not indicitive of the 49ers having a weakness on defense, it's a credit to the best passing offense in the NFL this season doing exactly what they do best.

The 49ers defense did exactly what everyone thought they'd do. They stuffed the run very well and they forced turnovers when they had opportunities to do so. Minimal mistakes. In case you haven't been watching the NFL in the last 5 years or so, I'll feel you in on a secret. Drew Brees is one of the best QBs in the league right now and he's almost impossible to stop when he's playing at his best.

Alex Smith deserves all the credit in the world for being able to keep up and keep the team in the game. If you knew before the game that the Saints would put up 30+ points would you imagine for a second that the 49ers would put up more than that? The only team in the NFL with Luck will be the Colts so lets just leave that word out of this thread from now until then. 👍

They might not have even gotten that final touchdown if Gregg Williams wouldn't have continually blitzed and leave a tight end who runs a 4.3 forty man on man with a safety who might run a 4.5 forty.

Sorry but I don't think anyone is interested in "what if" scenarios. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis recognized the mismatch and exploited it to perfection. That's what NFL offenses do.

Lucky win??? They beat the Packers by 17 points, almost double what GB put up, had a field goal blocked,

It wasn't a lucky win, I agree. The Giants defense deserves credit for limiting Green Bay. I do think it's important to remember that Green Bay has had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL all season but it didn't matter because Aaron Rodgers had been throwing like an MVP. It never mattered in the season how many points their opponents put up because Rodgers could always put up more.

and refs heavily favoring the Paclers AND it was in Green Bay!

👎 Come back with evidence if you want to prove this point.

Big blue didn't even play their best game either. Lucky? More like well deserved win. Green Bay was favorites to win it all, lost only once and get schooled at home by the team no one gave any chance too.

How was that not their best game? It's the biggest win they've had all season! Also, I was hearing lots of chatter about how good Eli has been lately and how shaky the Green Bay defense looked. Green Bay couldn't stop the run or pass and they got chewed up and spit out.

cliff notes: your 9'ers are going down

The matchup is an even one but I think it falls into the 49ers favor. They've already proven they can beat New York and not only that but they beat New York without Frank Gore. The 49ers have already proven they can put up points with the best passing offense in the NFL, do you really think that Eli can do better than Drew Brees? New York relies on it's running game much more than NOLA. If Pierre Thomas couldn't go anywhere I don't know how you think that Bradshaw will.

You must not have been watching but the 49ers D-line absolutely manhandled the Saints O-line line. You're living a fantasy if you don't think Eli will be eating grass on Sunday. It's going to be a rainy, wet field on Sunday. That's not good weather for teams that want to air out the ball.

 

[cullenand]

Forcing turnovers has been one of the things that the 49ers have done best all season. It's not new, it's not a fluke, and it wasn't lucky. The 49ers led the NFL in turnover differential. The Saints offense did exactly what everyone expected them to do. They threw like crazy and had a ton of success in doing so. That's not indicitive of the 49ers having a weakness on defense, it's a credit to the best passing offense in the NFL this season doing exactly what they do best.

I think you might've misread my post. I said despite forcing five turnovers they only won by four points. If the Saints have one less turnover they probably win the game.

The 49ers defense did exactly what everyone thought they'd do. They stuffed the run very well and they forced turnovers when they had opportunities to do so. Minimal mistakes.

They stuffed the run because the Saints didn't have their best running back for all but the first drive.

In case you haven't been watching the NFL in the last 5 years or so, I'll feel you in on a secret. Drew Brees is one of the best QBs in the league right now and he's almost impossible to stop when he's playing at his best.

You think I don't know that? Look at my avatar a little closer.

Alex Smith deserves all the credit in the world for being able to keep up and keep the team in the game. If you knew before the game that the Saints would put up 30+ points would you imagine for a second that the 49ers would put up more than that? The only team in the NFL with Luck will be the Colts so lets just leave that word out of this thread from now until then. 👍

I agree, Alex Smith played a great game and the Saints secondary sucked hard. If I knew that the Saints would turn the ball over five times then yes, I would expect them to score more than the Saints. Lucky might not have been the best choice of a word, but I was responding to Prosthetic saying that the Giants got lucky against the Packers. And if the Giants got lucky against the Packers then the 49ers got VERY VERY lucky against the Saints.

Sorry but I don't think anyone is interested in "what if" scenarios. Alex Smith and Vernon Davis recognized the mismatch and exploited it to perfection. That's what NFL offenses do.

Well I am. And I'm sure that Niners fan would be too if they lost the game.

👎 Come back with evidence if you want to prove this point.

Then obviously you didn't watch that game.

If Pierre Thomas couldn't go anywhere I don't know how you think that Bradshaw will.

Like I said, Pierre Thomas didn't play other than the first drive.
.

 

[Villain]

I think you might've misread my post. I said despite forcing five turnovers they only won by four points. If the Saints have one less turnover they probably win the game.

That's the playoffs. Turnovers and penalties will kill you every time.

 

[JohnBM01]

Turnovers and penalties DO hurt! Just look at all the gifts my Texans laid out at Baltimore for the Ravens to win.

 

[cuco33]

It wasn't a lucky win, I agree. The Giants defense deserves credit for limiting Green Bay. I do think it's important to remember that Green Bay has had one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL all season but it didn't matter because Aaron Rodgers had been throwing like an MVP. It never mattered in the season how many points their opponents put up because Rodgers could always put up more.

Giants D did a great job in my book. Not the best but a good job. They stopped their running game and I think GB was a little off in their passing. But the first time they faced each other in the season, NYG only lost by 3 and that was when they had some issues going on as well as injuries so I knew they had it in them to win. I constantly feared Rodgers. You would be suicidal if you didn't and it showed a few great passes he made. Some where he found the tiniest of holes to pass to. Great QB.

👎 Come back with evidence if you want to prove this point.

Did you even watch the game? Did you watch the game during the season? The refs heavily favored GB. Especially in this playoff game. I already pointed out the horrible down that was as clear as day a fumble. And the few times Eli got hit late, no flag was thrown but questionable late hit penalty on Giants from hitting Rodgers just as the ball was leaving his hand, in my book, should not have been a penalty specifically because Eli getting hit much later, much harder, was not called. There were a few other incidents but reviewing the fumble and calling it a down was ridiculous and clear favoritism.

How was that not their best game? It's the biggest win they've had all season! Also, I was hearing lots of chatter about how good Eli has been lately and how shaky the Green Bay defense looked. Green Bay couldn't stop the run or pass and they got chewed up and spit out.

Their biggest win because they beat GB in GB by 17 points (almost double what GB put up)? Or because you think it was their best game? They had momentum and played well but I don't think it was their best game. Maybe one of the better ones but not the best. They just had more drive to win and pulled it off performing better than GB.

The matchup is an even one but I think it falls into the 49ers favor. They've already proven they can beat New York and not only that but they beat New York without Frank Gore. The 49ers have already proven they can put up points with the best passing offense in the NFL, do you really think that Eli can do better than Drew Brees? New York relies on it's running game much more than NOLA. If Pierre Thomas couldn't go anywhere I don't know how you think that Bradshaw will.

You must not have been watching but the 49ers D-line absolutely manhandled the Saints O-line line. You're living a fantasy if you don't think Eli will be eating grass on Sunday. It's going to be a rainy, wet field on Sunday. That's not good weather for teams that want to air out the ball.

I only caught the end of the last quarter, and man was that a crazy ending to that game!! I just hope it's a good game this weekend and obviously I hope my big blue pull out a W. It will be tough but in my book the biggest hurdle the Giants had was GB at GB in the playoffs and they pulled off a convincing win. All Giants need to do is continue this and beat out SF. Giants during the season have been hit or miss and have struggled with piss poor form as well as injuries, losing games they should not have lost but like recent years with Coughlin.. he just gets big blue motivated, moving forward wanting the win more then the opponent. I do think Eli is going to be under some big pressure but post season he seems to just shrug it off like it's nothing. His in that state right now where he excels in the playoffs regardless of competition. After what happened in 2008, where even I didn't think my Giants would win, and after destroying Atlanta this year and beating GB at GB, I have all the faith in the world that big blue will reach the final. I just hope that Nicks continues to remember how to catch a ball, Cruz doesn't go cold for a quarter, our RBs make some amazing runs (which will be tough with 9'ers D), and the rest of the team stays focused. Oh and Tynes, who I'm not a fan of, doesn't miss a single kick, cuz he has a tendency to miss when it matters most lol
Let's hope for a good game, and for my big blue to celebrate a victory "giddy giddy"

 

[Villain]

Did that 49ers-Saints game this past weekend really happen? I'm having doubts. I watched it, and I know Josh watched it. But my Twitter feed, which usually lights up for big sporting events, stayed quiescent even as the lead changed hands four times in the final four minutes. Everyone was saving their attention for the late game from Foxboro, where Time, The New Yorker, GQ, and People all had credentials to watch Tebowmania bite the dust.

So the Niners game—a stirring battle between the NFL's best defense and a record-setting offense, capped by an unimaginable shootout—failed to make a dent in the collective football consciousness. I turn now to the experts making predictions for the NFC championship game. On CBS Sports, five out of five panelists have picked the New York Giants to beat the 49ers. Over on ESPN, six out of 10 picked the Giants. Our own roundtabler Brian Burke is on the New York Times website saying the Giants should be favored.

Las Vegas won't go quite as far as Brian; the betting line favors San Francisco by 2.5 points. But this is a team that went 13-3 in the regular season, whose worst defeat was a 16-6 loss, with the two other losses by two points and three points. The 49ers will be playing at home, hosting a Giants team that went 9-7, nearly missed the playoffs, and has been beaten by as many as 25 points—and which already lost in San Francisco this year. Yet Vegas, in calculating the mood of the gambling public, sees all those advantages as adding up to less than a field goal.

What makes the 49ers such a tepid favorite? There seem to be two main theories about this matchup. One is that the Giants are on their way to duplicating, four years after the fact, their last shocking underdog run to the Super Bowl—that despite a thoroughly mediocre regular season, fate and health and chemistry and a rampaging defensive line have all come together in a way that transcends the Giants' actual record, so that more qualified-seeming teams will part before them like the Red Sea, making them champions again. The other theory is that the 49ers, after years of awfulness and obscurity, won 13 games by being a good football team. Between the two, the magical-thinking scenario somehow strikes people as more plausible.

Sure, the Giants went out last week and routed the defending Super Bowl champions, battering the league's highest-scoring offense into total disarray. They were impressive. But New York was supposed to have a great pass defense. The Niners, meanwhile, didn't blow out the Saints—instead, Game-Managing Quarterback Alex Smith traded big scoring plays with Drew Brees and the pinballing Saints, showing a dimension to the team that even San Francisco's believers hadn't ever expected to see.

Still, the 49ers have been so bad for so long, it's hard to believe things have really changed. They play on the West Coast, so it's been possible to miss their games if you don't go looking. Seeing them reappear on my TV this season, wearing their familiar red, gold, and white, has been unsettling, like hearing an old popular song you'd forgotten 20 years ago. One's frame of reference wobbles.

Last week's shootout (and the occasional heroic quarterback touchdown run) aside, these aren't the Steve Young Niners. San Francisco did have the league's fourth-highest scoring margin in the regular season, outscoring opponents by 151 points. But "outscoring" is a little misleading. The teams ahead of the 49ers on the list—Green Bay, New Orleans, and New England—got there by lighting up the scoreboard. The 49ers got there by unplugging the scoreboard. Their opponents averaged 14.3 points per game, or 60 percent of San Francisco's scoring output. No one was more dominant than that, percentage-wise.

The question is whether that success says anything about how good the 49ers really are. Brian argued that part of San Francisco's foundation is built on sand:

The overwhelming reason the 49ers won 13 regular-season games and find themselves where they are today is turnover rates—historically good turnover rates, to be exact. Alex Smith's interception rate is the best in the league at 1.1 percent, and the team fumble rate is second in the league at 1.5 percent. Their defensive interception rate is fourth best in the league, at 4 percent.

Turnovers are the least consistent, most random aspects of team performance, which is why my efficiency model puts the Giants as the superior team, enough so to make them the favorites on the road Sunday.

The 49ers led the league in turnover margin this season with a startling plus-28, a performance that should inspire some skepticism. As Brian wrote, turnovers have a huge element of randomness. Turnover margin tends to vary erratically from year to year.

But a team's turnover margin is made up of different things, some of them less random than others. Smith has thrown five interceptions, while San Francisco's defense has grabbed 23. The size of that gap is probably exaggerated by random chance, but the gap is there for good reasons: San Francisco plays a conservative offense; Smith's league-best 1.1 percent interception rate goes with his 3.8 percent touchdown rate, good for 22nd place. The Niners avoid risk and reward alike.

(It's also possible that an interception ratio like the 49ers' could be an effect of success, rather than a cause. A team holding a lead doesn't need to take as many risks as the team trying to catch up. The same way that teams pile up rushing yards because they're winning games and running out the clock—rather than winning games because they have strong running games—a team could avoid interceptions simply by being in control of its games.)

Where chance truly matters is when the football hits the ground. San Francisco is credited with forcing 20 fumbles in the regular season, and its opponents fumbled 11 other times without being forced (according to Elias). Of those 31 total fumbles, the 49ers recovered 15, or 48.4 percent.

Compare that with the Baltimore Ravens, another defense-first team famous for its ball-hawking. Baltimore forced 21 fumbles, but their opponents had only six unforced fumbles. The Ravens ended up with 11 fumble recoveries, or 40.7 percent. Relative to the Ravens, the 49ers were lucky.

But the 49ers aren't playing the Ravens this weekend. They're playing the Giants, who recovered 52.4 percent of their opponents' fumbles in the regular season. Add in each team's own fumbles on offense or special teams—the Niners lost five of 14; the Giants lost eight of 18—and their playoff performances, and San Francisco has recovered 29 of 51 loose balls, while the New York has recovered 24 of 42 (or 25 of 43 if you count Greg Jennings). That's 56.9 percent for the 49ers, 57.1 percent for the Giants.

So, yes, from a statistical perspective, there's reason to discount the 49ers' true merit as a football team. But not their merit relative to the Giants. The 49ers are lucky to be 14-3. The Giants are lucky to be there at all.

'Nuff said.

 

[Omnis]

It's Jim Harbaugh, man. It's the same story with Stanford. Stanford's defense the year they won the Orange Bowl was sick. Harbaugh is a master at orchestrating an offense, giving it the best chance to succeed.

The best coaches are the ones that make things work with the most tolerance for a lack of player execution. That's what Harbaugh does best. But, as you can imagine, his players give everything for him and that is why they're in the position they're in.

You have to respect good coaching no matter what team they belong to.

 

[Omnis]

Also, yay, Joe Philbin is our new coach!

 

[Villain]

It's Jim Harbaugh, man. It's the same story with Stanford. Stanford's defense the year they won the Orange Bowl was sick. Harbaugh is a master at orchestrating an offense, giving it the best chance to succeed.

The best coaches are the ones that make things work with the most tolerance for a lack of player execution. That's what Harbaugh does best. But, as you can imagine, his players give everything for him and that is why they're in the position they're in.

You have to respect good coaching no matter what team they belong to.

He also brought the key members of his coaching staff with him. I hope Fangio goes on not getting credit because I don't want another team to take him and install him as their HC.

Also, yay, Joe Philbin is our new coach!

Brad Childress 2.0

 

[Omnis]

Yeah, I wanted the Fins to interview Fangio too and I'm sure they would have if he weren't in the NFC championship today.

That said, Philbin is the real deal. I have no reason to doubt him right now. He's no Chilly 2.0-- the dude is polished and seems to have everything you want in a coach. If you compare him to Meatball Sparano and Cam Cam-moron, there is a stark difference.

 

[Blitz24]

New England (15-3) has eliminated Baltimore (13-5): 23-20

 

[BLITZ_69]

That sucks so bad for Baltimore. Lewis and Reed have to do it next year so they can retire happy.

 

[Akmuq]

Patriots to the SuperBowl!

 

[CAM]

The thing is, Baltimore won. Evans had two feet down. It doesn't freaking matter if the ball gets knocked out, he had two feet down with the ball and the officials missed it. They didn't even review it with Harbaugh screaming for a review. Bad officials seem to be the story of these playoffs.

Oh, and Tom Brady, go and become just injured enough so that you can never step on a football field again (I don't wish death ).

 

[Omnis]

Flaccos fault on that drive. And Lee Evans. And ****iff.

 

[JohnBM01]

So no "HarBowl" this Super Bowl. Congrats to the Patriots. Now, it's time to see what NFC representative will be in Indy for the Super Bowl. Giants? 49ers? We shall see...

 

[BLITZ_69]

Well I think the game's MVP should be Vince Wolfork. But the Ravens did play a better game IMO.

 

[Patrick]

I can't believe it. Holy 🤬

 

[cullenand]

The thing is, Baltimore won. Evans had two feet down. It doesn't freaking matter if the ball gets knocked out, he had two feet down with the ball and the officials missed it. They didn't even review it with Harbaugh screaming for a review. Bad officials seem to be the story of these playoffs.

Oh, and Tom Brady, go and become just injured enough so that you can never step on a football field again (I don't wish death ).

From my understanding of the rule is that he must maintain possession throughout, remember the Calvin Johnson incident.

 

[CAM]

I know. But by rule, the play is dead once possession is gained with two feet down. That's what he had. No bobbling or anything like that. The strip was null, and the refs missed it.

 

[Spacegoat]

Oh, and Tom Brady, go and become just injured enough so that you can never step on a football field again (I don't wish death ).

No "Harbowl" this year. Damn.

 

[CAM]

The moment where they showed Harbaugh drumming all over Smith's pads before the game and seeing how big Alex smiled almost made me cry. It looked like he was playing his first game in Pop Warner and his dad was messing around with him. It just makes you remember how far he's come and how close those two guys must be, if they win the whole thing it'll be a very special moment, what with Smith's ups and downs and how he finally got a coach to believe in him.

If I hear "Cruuuuuuuuuz" one more time I'm gonna explode. I used to like the Giants, but he made that end. So annoying.

 

[cullenand]

I know. But by rule, the play is dead once possession is gained with two feet down. That's what he had. No bobbling or anything like that. The strip was null, and the refs missed it.

If you look at the replay he clearly did not have two feet down. Right before his second foot was coming down the ball was knocked away. So good call by the refs.