North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

[a6m5]

It's a win-win for Prime Minister Abe. He can show strong posturing using JSDF without the delusional hippies crying about Anti-War. If the North Korean rocket actually beat Aegis defense & reach Tokyo, I'm not gonna lie, I'd be shocked.

 

[Dotini]

delusional hippies crying about Anti-War

One of the potential outcomes of the current flapdoodle would be Japan and South Korea going for their own nuclear weapons. Eventually, other worried states in the east Asian region might also proliferate. If backwards, impoverished NK can do it - well, who couldn't?

Still, my guess is that there will be no missiles launched nor even any shooting at all. It's all an internal power struggle within North Korea. If there is any shooting, it will begin with the assassination of Kim or some rival North Korean General. There is a substantial but embattled faction of North Koreans who want peaceful reunification with the South. Western educated Kim Jong Un has sent us signals by entertaining American ambassadors, CEOs and sports/cultural icons. He may be one of the peaceful reunifiers. That's why it bothers me a little to see so many people automatically mock and belittle the very figure who might be the closest thing to the good guy in this scenario.

Respectful speculation,
Steve

 

[prisonermonkeys]

The North suggests that all foreigners in the South evacuate:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/10/w...eks-to-end-vicious-cycle-with-north.html?_r=0

 

[lbsf1]

Yes it is a daily mail article and yes it is speculation that it is the actual embassador leaving however it is another unusual behaviour by North Korea.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...utside-Ealing-semi-secretive-state-based.html

 

[terminator363]

They are just bluffing. All foreigners to them are seen as imperialist traitors. DPRK hates all western countries. With the exception of China (which really isn't western)

 

[Touring Mars]

China (which really isn't western)

It depends where you're standing...

P.S. Is "tone down the bellicose rhetoric" simply a polite way of saying STFU?

 

[terminator363]

It depends where you're standing...

I really don't want to get into that debate...

P.S. Is "tone down the bellicose rhetoric" simply a polite way of saying STFU?

Yes.

 

[Matty]

Just found out the South have a newish President so the North always get noisey when the south get a new president to try and get him to break.

 

[Casio]

Just found out the South have a newish President so the North always get noisey when the south get a new president to try and get him to break.

her

 

[NFSCARBON1]

I think the North are just trying to make themselves look big. There is no point in them declaring war on the south, let alone nuclear. They simply cannot come out of it better than they are now.

If a non nuclear war only breaks out between North and South, it'll be pointless and I'm willing to bet the South would come out on top as they have advanced a lot quicker since the last Korean war.
If nuclear war breaks out, the Americans will likely become involved. They could easily destroy North Korea, not just win the war.
If the Chinese get involved, I can't see them letting Kim Jong Un and his hangers on keep power of NK. If anything they'll probably just absorb it as part of China.
It's a No Win situation for the North (or at least it's government). I wonder how many of it's brainwashed people would actually be upset if the dictatorship was overthrown?

 

[Furinkazen]

What is somewhat off-putting is how outrageous and unpredictable NK is. It's close to beyond the point of "let's laugh at Kim and his satellites that fall apart and oh look another set of vain threats" because these seem much more sustained, and dare I say it, random than what I have come to to expect.

 

[a6m5]

It was in reference to anti-war crowd in Japan who basically wants our Self-Defense Force to keep status quo, if not rid of them altogether. I don't think we are talking about same thing.

I really don't want to get into that debate...

I don't think it's really up to a debate.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I wonder how many of it's brainwashed people would actually be upset if the dictatorship was overthrown?

All of them.

They are, after all, brainwashed.

 

[Peter.]

All of them.

They are, after all, brainwashed.

Wouldn't the US or UN be able to get them to reconsider and side with them if they give the North Koreans something they need but rarely to much of under the Kim's, like, you know, food?

 

[prisonermonkeys]

One of North Korea's (former) top spies reckons that Kim's extreme rhetoric is intended to try and win over the military, whom he is struggling to keep hold of:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-10/former-top-north-korean-spy-speaks-out-against-regime/4621092

Wouldn't the US or UN be able to get them to reconsider and side with them if they give the North Koreans something they need but rarely to much of under the Kim's, like, you know, food?

It's unlikely. The North Koreans are conditioned to believe that they are living in paradise, that the outside world is a corrupt and decadent mess that would like nothing more than to suck them out of aforementioned paradise, and that the Kims are truly enlightened rulers who have brough peace and prosperity to North Korea. And this brainwashing has been going on for sixty years. When Kim Jong-il died, the North Koreans packed the streets of Pyongyang to mourn his passing, and they showed actual, genuine grief.

If the UN or America tried to get them to "reconsider" in exchange for aid, it would probably be considered a bribe or an incentive to commit treason.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

The city of Yokohama isn't helping things:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-10/japan-city-mistakenly-tweets-n-korean-missile-launch/4621456

Meanwhile, the South are now expecting a North Korean missile test to take place soon:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-10/an-south-korea-raises-its-alert-level/4621484

And this gives some (fascinating, I must admit) insight into everyday life in North Korea:

"In North Korea, I was taught that our leader Kim Il-sung was a god. You were taught to put him before your own parents. You learn from early childhood to say 'Thank you, Great Leader' for everything. And if you said the wrong thing, even if it was a slip of the tongue, you'd end up in the gulag. North Korea is a not a state, it's a cult."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-04-10/my-life-as-a-north-korean-super-spy3a-exclusive/4621358

 

[NissanSkylineN1]

North Korean missile launch is "considerably high"
The prospect of a North Korean missile launch is ``considerably high,'' South Korea's foreign minister told lawmakers Wednesday as Pyongyang calmly prepared to mark the April 15 birthday of its founder, historically a time when it seeks to draw the world's attention with dramatic displays of military power.

The missile is expected to be a medium-range missile with a range of 3,500 kilometres capable of flying over Japan, Foreign Minister Yun Byung-se told lawmakers in Seoul. Earlier, a Defence Ministry official said preparations appeared to be complete, and that the launch could take place at any time.

Yun said Seoul was bracing for the test-fire of a ballistic missile dubbed ``Musudan'' by foreign experts after the name of the northeastern village where North Korea has a launch pad. Experts said the Musudan is built to reach the U.S. territory of Guam as well as U.S. military installations in Japan.

North Korean officials have not announced plans to launch a missile, but have told foreign diplomats in Pyongyang that they will not be able to guarantee their safety starting Wednesday. Officials also have urged tourists in South Korea to take cover, warning that a nuclear war is imminent. However, most diplomats and foreign residents appeared to be staying put.

The threats are largely seen as rhetoric and an attempt by North Korea to scare foreigners into pressing their governments to pressure Washington and Seoul to change their policies toward Pyongyang, as well as to boost the military credentials of North Korea's young leader, Kim Jong Un. North Korea does not have diplomatic relations with the U.S. and South Korea, its foes during the Korean War of the 1950s.

Kim Un Chol, the 40-year-old head of a political unit at Pyongyang's tobacco factory, said he had been discharged from the military but was willing to re-enlist if war breaks out. He said North Koreans were resolute.``The people of Pyongyang are confident. They know we can win any war,'' he told The Associated Press. ``We now have nuclear weapons. So you won't see any worry on people's faces, even if the situation is tense.''

North Korea sporadically holds civil air raid drills during which citizens practice blacking out their windows and seeking shelter. But no such drills have been held in recent months, local residents said.

http://www.newstalk1010.com/News/localnews/blogentry.aspx?BlogEntryID=10528833

 

[Luminis]

I wonder what Kim is even trying to accomplish with this. No sane man would ever risk to wage war against the United States and the NATO, Russia and China - none of which are pleased by his actions. North Korea would be wiped of the map entirely if it game to an all-out war.

Kim's level of insanity must truly be over 9000 to provoke the most powerful military forces on earth - and all of them at the same time.

 

[Wardez]

He's trying to force his military to respect him by scaring the $%^# out of them putting them seconds to midnight*. Things aren't peachy for him and those around him who he doesn't know he can trust or not. He's walking an extremely thin tightrope right now between possibly getting overthrown or just losing any semblance of regard from his staff and generals and having most of the Western world breathing down his neck. Now I carry not a single shred of sympathy for this douchenozzle, but I think if I was him I probably would've passed out from the pressure way earlier.

*Speaking of which... ominously or poetically, the creator of the "Doomsday clock" has just passed away:

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/local/ct-met-langsdorf-obit-20130409,0,6821575.story

 

[Motorcycle54]

I wonder what Kim is even trying to accomplish with this.

Kim seems to have absolute power within his own borders, and is apparently lost inside the whole 'if god is powerful can he make a mountain he himself cannot move?' paradox. Kim is not a genius behind all his threats and outward theater so to look for arcane motives is a waste of energy.
Sometimes a perfectly ordinary, but imbalanced mind can determine the course of a million bodies. Thats planet earth for you.

 

[Nicksfix]

I wonder what Kim is even trying to accomplish with this.

From one of the links prisonermonkeys provided.

She believes the latest sabre-rattling from North Korea is all an effort for the untested leader, Kim Jong-un, to play the tough guy in front of his domestic audience.
"Kim Jong-un is too young and too inexperienced," she said.
"He's struggling to gain complete control over the military and to win their loyalty.
"That's why he's doing so many visits to military bases, to firm up support."

 

[Lizard]

I hate these people saying that he is just trying to win an audience at home. It is most likely untrue. It is just the easiest story to give to the people in the media. Remember readers of papers tend to like easily understandable explanations.

He wants popularity sure but then he wouldn't risk driving his country into the ground for it as then he has nothing to rule. And there is always the military to force domestic audiences to like him.

It seems a lot more logical that he is trying to do what his father did but failing on a massive scale. When his father threatened people he got concessions from the rest of the world on the condition he backed down. Notable example was 2007 where he got aid in exchange for disarmament.

It is just a question of how far they are willing to go to get the stuff they need.

 

[Matty]

Just to add, in North Korea if you become an enemy of the state, example, forget to say 'thank you great leader' (Which I believe is considered an act which can have you considered an enemy of the state) you can be put into a concentration camp. Where you, your parents, grandparents get put into. If you have no children then when you do they have life imprisonment in the concentration camp, and then your children's children (Your Grandchildren) spend a lifetime there until their children are born and rared (Great-Grandchildren [4 generations later]) when their allowed leave.

So somebody considered a enemy of state during the Korean War's ancestors could still be in a concentration camps today.

So overall considering who can be put into and spend life in concentration camps we're talking 7 generations.

 

[Slash]

I think this song is absolutely appropriate for the situation at hand, after all it was based on the Cold War...

 

[BobK]

So overall considering who can be put into and spend life in concentration camps we're talking 7 generations.

You do realize, though, that North Korea has only been around for three generations, right?

 

[Dotini]

A Very Simplified History of North Korea

Up until WWII, Korea was a unified, independent nation state, many thousands of years old.

In WWII, Japan brutally invaded and took control over much of the nation of Korea.

At the end of WWII, the US took over the positions Japan controlled, and made no attempt to return Korea to the Koreans.

Naturally, Koreans rebelled against the US, and with the aid of Russia and China, almost but not quite drove the foreigners off the peninsula and into the sea. General MacArthur landed at Inchon and a bloody stalemate eventually ensued near the 38th parallel, where the DMZ is today. MacArthur wanted to nuke China in order to win, but President Truman fired him instead. Not much has changed since 1953.

Respectfully submitted,
Steve

 

[gokartman78]

Gotta be honest, I have a feeling that this whole situation is not all Kim Jong Un's making. I really don't think a 30 year old who has just come into power, would know how to get many advanced countries running around worried. I have a feeling he is the 'face' the attacks, but the people really running the 'show' are the old generals that have lived through the Korean war. They are the other people inside NK with real power, the kind of power that if used right could have started this new 'war'. Kim Jong Un has had very little time in power, and would certainly not have the know-how to cause this whole situation after only 14 months in power.

 

[a6m5]

Not much has changed since 1953.

With the exception of that thing about, how it went from a Korea Koreans once considered as their destination for repatriation to where the secret police hunts down their own people, putting them in death camp-lite, while others suffers famines.

 

[McLaren]

I hate these people saying that he is just trying to win an audience at home. It is most likely untrue. It is just the easiest story to give to the people in the media. Remember readers of papers tend to like easily understandable explanations.

Then what is it?

He wants popularity sure but then he wouldn't risk driving his country into the ground for it as then he has nothing to rule. And there is always the military to force domestic audiences to like him.

He's not actually going to do anything. He just wants them on the brink of war for them to see he's ready to attack. At the last moment, he will give some excuse that the enemy has backed down.

Your second sentence is the whole issues as well. How can you have the military force people to respect you if your own military doesn't?

It seems a lot more logical that he is trying to do what his father did but failing on a massive scale. When his father threatened people he got concessions from the rest of the world on the condition he backed down. Notable example was 2007 where he got aid in exchange for disarmament.

It is just a question of how far they are willing to go to get the stuff they need.

Except his father had China's support. Un doesn't, in fact, now China is upset.

 

[Nicksfix]

So now the Pentagon is saying that N.K. could launch a Nuclear missile.

A U.S. intelligence report concludes that North Korea has advanced its nuclear knowhow to the point that it could arm a ballistic missile with a nuclear warhead

The new American intelligence analysis, disclosed Thursday at a hearing on Capitol Hill, says the Pentagon's intelligence wing has "moderate confidence" that North Korea has nuclear weapons capable of delivery by ballistic missiles but that the weapon was unreliable

Full article