North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

[Dotini]

No.

So, when and if it happens, what will you do about it?

 

[TenEightyOne]

So, when and if it happens, what will you do about it?

I will write a stern letter to the Times of London

 

[Dotini]

Maybe the Donald will make a deal with North Korea.

http://original.antiwar.com/kevin-martin/2017/03/10/trump-should-make-a-deal-with-north-korea/
The basic contours of what North Korea wants are well known, at least first steps, and it’s not rocket science. Not necessarily in this order, they are: a formal peace treaty to replace the supposedly temporary armistice at the end of the Korean War in 1953, direct talks with the United States, and relief from what it sees as a confrontational military posture by the US, South Korea and Japan, cessation of war games being the most obvious step.

On several occasions during the election campaign last year, Trump made positive comments about talking with North Korea. Now he can, and should, put that into practice. As Winston Churchill famously said, "to jaw-jaw is better than to war-war."

 

[Imari]

Is a US preemptive strike agains North Korea justified?

Is a pre-emptive strike against anyone justified?

The USSR and US didn't think so when they both had enough firepower to wipe out the world several times over. And yet you're suggesting it over North Korea, who may or may not have functional missiles that may or may not get through appropriate defenses. And certainly don't have the military might to actually resist were any of the major military powers to attack them, as they all definitely would.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Anti-aircraft gun being used in an airport might cause some alarm to travelers.

Who said that would be used?

Cumbersome? Maybe. Or perhaps clever. First off, it seems you consider North Koreans to be a simple lot that would have trouble tying their shoes. That they would have no idea either the potency of the nerve agent they used, or its half life. I don't believe either would be the case. Further, this isn't just some random rogue despot that escaped from Pyongyang. He was a Kim, he was the PRNK leaders brother. I'm sure a man of no small means, nor any misguided ideas of what his brother would be about. Especially after Kim Jong Un killed their uncle. Nam was, I imaging, trying to keep a very low profile. What better way to assassinate him, than a sneak attack in a mall in a fake prank set up. It's not like Un would care. He sees himself above reproach. He just needed a way to catch his brother off his guard.
The real shame in all of this though, are those that pulled the alleged pranks. If indeed they weren't actually in on the plot, they killed a person thinking it was just a funny gag they were participating in. That would be a terrible pill to have to swallow.

They could actually be that naive the notion isn't improbable.

Also what does is matter if it's his brother or a well known defector or escaped citizen of North Korea? The point that has always been understood, and more so now is that if you leave, or try to inform the world of how things work you'll be killed in some form.

Also you've echoed my point, Un doesn't care, and does see himself above reproach, which makes me wonder why the trouble of doing this, when a lone assassin with a gun or knife would have been easier. I think it's because Un wanted it to be clear that this was done by him to the international public. Also I highly doubt that this was people actually think they were put up to a prank gone wrong, by some despot regime.

 

[Grayfox]

http://www.news.com.au/world/asia/n...s/news-story/e7b1ec89371ba0789cf370f1af01759c

“If they infringe on the DPRK’s sovereignty and dignity even a bit, its army will launch merciless ultra-precision strikes from ground, air, sea and underwater,” the North’s state news agency KCNA said.

North Korea has no dignity and Ultra Precision.

Is this the ultra precision that the we normally would think of or would it be north koreas definition of it.
Which means fizzle out 1000km off target.

 

[Robin]

Interesting diagram on how WW3's gonna start...

 

[Obelisk]

How does N.K. have so many troops? Is it mandatory service over there?

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

How does N.K. have so many troops? Is it mandatory service over there?

Probably, I mean military over there from what I've seen in documentaries is being close to the almighty leader himself and serving said god is of great honor. That's the western interpretation, the reality is it's probably mandatory to a great degree. I'm more surprised at China's active duty numbers, quite sparse compared to overall population.

 

[Grayfox]

Probably, I mean military over there from what I've seen in documentaries is being close to the almighty leader himself and serving said god is of great honor. That's the western interpretation, the reality is it's probably mandatory to a great degree.

IIRC I heard that every man is to fight if war starts

 

[PeterJB]

And apparently they can't afford to feed their own people but they can afford the conscript all of them.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Don't worry, 'Murica got this one.

Now could be a good time to dig out those 1980's fallout leaflets.

 

[Blitz24]

And apparently they can't afford to feed their own people but they can afford the conscript all of them.

Patriotism is at an all time high until the ration shortage hits.

 

[Dotini]

Tillerson visits the DMZ.
Apparently the US goal is to end North Korea's development of atomic weapons and missiles. Diplomacy and economic pressures have not worked. Blunt military force is under consideration as alliances are firmed up.
http://bigstory.ap.org/947c7e5f9de749a69c163eb72d6f9d67

 

[Sanji Himura]

Interesting diagram on how WW3's gonna start...

The fact that Japan and South Korea has the Patriot III Anti-Missile defense system is a very dangerous proposition now that we know that North Korea has been active in the development of chemical weapons more than nuclear weapons. I say that for two reasons, one is that to deploy nerve gas by way of missile deployment, one doesn't need to necessarily hit the actual target to actually deploy the gas. All that is actually necessary is that the missile needs to get close to the population center, say Beijing, and allow the air currents deliver the gas to the target provided that the detonation point is relatively low.

So, for example, if Kim Jong Un wants to use chemical weapons in an attack on Kyoto, a somewhat realistic possibility given the March 6th tests, then all they needed to do is calculate the proper altitude so that the gas can carry through the air currents.

Second is that Trump isn't necessarily afraid to push the nuclear button when the situation calls for it, and North Korea not dismantling their nuclear program is a very good excuse to push the button. Either by way of first strike or a retaliatory strike, Trump will push the button if Jong Un pushes him far enough.

 

[Liquid]

There are very early reports on the BBC that the US is considering military action if North Korea elevates its weapons programme.

Rex Tillerson has also apparently cut short a visit to South Korea due to fatigue.

 

[stonesfan129]

How come they don't get China to tell them to quit it?

 

[TheCracker]

How come they don't get China to tell them to quit it?

Whose got big enough boots to ask China to do anything? And maybe it suits China the way things already are?

 

[Blitz24]

Whose got big enough boots to ask China to do anything? And maybe it suits China the way things already are?

100% this. Until North Korea's sabre rattling poses a threat to China itself, they have no incentive to do anything.

 

[Touring Mars]

And maybe it suits China the way things already are?

It does - when it comes to keeping China's neighbours/competitors/adversaries on their toes (all of which are allied with the US in one way or another), it is certainly quite convenient for a belligerent North Korea to be doing all the sabre-rattling while China needn't lift a finger. That's not to say that North Korea will do whatever the Chinese want - nor does it mean that China is pulling the strings - the point is that it doesn't need to so long as North Korea keeps doing what it is doing.

 

[McLaren]

How come they don't get China to tell them to quit it?

Closest I've ever seen reported was Russia a few years ago unhappy with how China was not doing enough to keep N. Korea in check. Whatever escalation was thought to be there never rose though, and things went back to usual.

 

[Omnis]

How does N.K. have so many troops? Is it mandatory service over there?

Literally slave labor. Everyone should listen to Michael Malice and/or read his book.



This is a really good watch to give you some kind of idea. Even I was pretty unaware of a couple things he talks about.

 

[TenEightyOne]

That's not to say that North Korea will do whatever the Chinese want - nor does it mean that China is pulling the strings - the point is that it doesn't need to so long as North Korea keeps doing what it is doing.

That's a good point. We know China would love to expand its presence in the area... what better way than a world-saving annexation of those pesky nuko-nutters?

That's if Trump doesn't blow the flame out first.

 

[Blitz24]

That's a good point. We know China would love to expand its presence in the area... what better way than a world-saving annexation of those pesky nuko-nutters?

That's if Trump doesn't blow the flame out first.

Why bother? The moment North Korea has no further use to China they will annex it. But they will also go after South Korea.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Why bother? The moment North Korea has no further use to China they will annex it.

That moment is only likely to be when the remainder of the world call time on NK's actions. China will save the world by incorporating NK as an "independent" state. Effectively little will change outside the sabre-rattling.

This development would be a big headache for the West. In addition to bolstering China's presence in the South China Sea it gives them a direct land border to some of the most valuable data centres in the world.

But they will also go after South Korea.

That would be very likely to spark a large-scale war. I very much doubt that China are that stupid. They got where they did in 20C by being far smarter than that.

 

[Blitz24]

That moment is only likely to be when the remainder of the world call time on NK's actions. China will save the world by incorporating NK as an "independent" state. Effectively little will change outside the sabre-rattling.

This development would be a big headache for the West. In addition to bolstering China's presence in the South China Sea it gives them a direct land border to some of the most valuable data centres in the world.



That would be very likely to spark a large-scale war. I very much doubt that China are that stupid. They got where they did in 20C by being far smarter than that.

The thing is, can China go halfway? I don't think they would be content to do so. And while China bordering South Korea is better than NK, the military presence could still be required.

 

[mustafur]

The thing is, can China go halfway? I don't think they would be content to do so. And while China bordering South Korea is better than NK, the military presence could still be required.

China hasn't really shown that it's wlling to go that far, especially when we are talking about a Strong US Ally, they might have a strong military but they are miles behind the strength the US and its allies have.

 

[FoRiZon]

An actual thing posted on official North Korean channel.

 

[Dotini]

That moment is only likely to be when the remainder of the world call time on NK's actions. China will save the world by incorporating NK as an "independent" state. Effectively little will change outside the sabre-rattling.

This development would be a big headache for the West. In addition to bolstering China's presence in the South China Sea it gives them a direct land border to some of the most valuable data centres in the world.



That would be very likely to spark a large-scale war. I very much doubt that China are that stupid. They got where they did in 20C by being far smarter than that.

Didn't the Korean War "end" in a bloody stalemate/truce between the US and China, with the war itself still technically unresolved?

My opinion is that the South Koreans are strongly kindred to the northerners , and would be loathe to suffer any attack on them from any foreigner, eastern or western.

 

[TheCracker]

My opinion is that the South Koreans are strongly kindred to the northerners , and would be loathe to suffer any attack on them from any foreigner, eastern or western.

Only a Korean could confirm that assertion. Looking back through their older history it would appear that much like Japan they had long, peaceful and prosperous periods of dynasty rule as a mostly a hermit state. In more recent centuries they've lost land to what is now China and Russia, had a series of corrupt governments/imperial dynasties that had run the nation into the ground with poverty which ended in revolution. Japanese rule for the early half of last century and then the split into North and South that we are all familiar with now. There will be so few Koreans alive that can remember a unified Korea and there's been so much anti North or South rhetoric from both sides, i'd be surprised if 'Koreans' had any strong identity other than being 'North' or 'South'. But like i said, only someone from there could say otherwise. I guess that like Berliners from before when the wall went up, some were unfortunate to have their families physically split by the divide, and for those their feelings will be blurred.