North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

[Sanji Himura]

China Bans all Coal Imports from North Korea. This could be in retaliation for Jong Nam's assassination:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...tests-kim-jong-nam-donald-trump-a7587931.html

 

[PeterJB]

Keep the sanctions coming and maybe we can eventually get China away from them and bring an end to the Juche regime.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Keep the sanctions coming and maybe we can eventually get China away from them and bring an end to the Juche regime.

Do you think China is supporting North Korea because they're a valuable ally and they're comcerned about western intervention in the region?

No. It's because China is the only country the North will listen to (and then only when it feels like it). If it weren't for Beijing acting as a shoulder for the North to cry on when the big bad west slaps another round of sanctions on them, the whole region would be a mess.

Also, China has over three hundred million people within range of the North's missiles. You think America is worried about the North being able to hit California? China has more people living within range of their missiles than the United States has living within its borders.

 

[PeterJB]

China is the only thing stopping the US marching in there and ending it once and for all. North Korea's military is no match for the US, and many other Western nations, but it's a different story with China as their wing man.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

China is the only thing stopping the US marching in there and ending it once and for all

I would imagine that a) international law would prevent them from doing that and that b) China would be deeply opposed to military intervention unless there was no other recourse.

Let's say that the United States did "march in and end it once and for all". What would North Korea do? They would retaliate with everything they have - and they have nuclear weapons. Only a handful of low-yield devices, but they have them. They may use one or more, and America may use one of their own in response.

Who suffers in all of this? China. The prevailing winds in the region would blow the fallout cloud over China's eastern seaboard, which is home to some of the largest cities on earth. So while America celebrates the fall of another evil regime and emerges largely unscathed, hundreds of millions of innocent people suffer for it.

Is it any wonder China is opposed to military intervention?

 

[JKgo]

Who suffers in all of this?

...South Koreans. And Japanese. And North Korean civilians.

And who says China is "opposed" to military intervention? No evidence of that. Their saber rattling over the seas of South East Asia disagrees with that sentiment.

China is no peace-loving hippies. They'll grab the rifles the moment there's a threat to their way of life - and although I can't find the source to back up, it's been understood that Chinese have relocated a fair few amount of missile defense systems near the NK borders, ostensibly to counter the upcoming THAAD installations.

 

[Sanji Himura]

I would imagine that a) international law would prevent them from doing that and that b) China would be deeply opposed to military intervention unless there was no other recourse.

Just to correct the record, we never officially ended the Korean War. The 38th Parallel is just a demilitarized zone that became a border.

 

[TheCracker]

China is the only thing stopping the US marching in there and ending it once and for all. North Korea's military is no match for the US, and many other Western nations, but it's a different story with China as their wing man.

I think remembering that 2.5million people died last time the two Koreas went to war in the 50's, dragging the US and China, and to a lesser effect, Russia into it is what is stopping another conflict. Russia also has a small border with North Korea. Any conflict against NK will no doubt reluctantly drag China and Russia in with them. The players involved are too big to not tread carefully when it comes to handling the 'North Korea' issue.

 

[Dan]

North Korea's newest missile satellite test. [Language] Skip to 13:19 if the video doesn't automatically start there.

 

[TenEightyOne]

North Korea's newest missile satellite test. [Language]

24H of Lemons in a '73 Fury? You lost me there

 

[Dan]

24H of Lemons in a '73 Fury? You lost me there

Sorry, I forget that videos don't always autoplay at the right timestamp. Skip ahead to 13:19.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Sorry, I forget that videos don't always autoplay at the right timestamp. Skip ahead to 13:19.

Ah, okay... I never even got into the video because there's a 30s unskippable advert

 

[Dan]

Ah, okay... I never even got into the video because there's a 30s unskippable advert

uBlock Origin.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Malaysia has identified the poison used to kill Kim Jong-nam as VX nerve agent:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-...-murder-of-kim-jong-nam-malaysia-says/8300370

 

[TenEightyOne]

Malaysia has identified the poison used to kill Kim Jong-nam as VX nerve agent:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-...-murder-of-kim-jong-nam-malaysia-says/8300370

...and the poison is being named as a Weapon of Mass Destruction.

Haven't heard that phrase for a while, I'm sure it ended well last time.

 

[Rage Racer]

Any conflict against NK will no doubt reluctantly drag China and Russia in with them.

Why?

Well, technically, China has a security treaty with DPRK, but some experts say that China would not enter a war on North Korea's side. China itself is being annoyed by the poor neighbour that keeps providing problems, refugees and (almost) nothing in exchange. And in case if the DPRK gets attacked, China will most likely go with a public condemnation only (and possibliy receive a secret compensation from US, South Korea and Japan for the caused inconvenience).

As for Russia, it has no reason to protect North Korea at all. IMO, what RF would do in case if the fires start is deploy some troops on the border and Triumph SAM's to intercept possible air threats to the Russian territory. And, probably, set the Civil Defense forces on high alert due to possible radiation threat (it is likely that NK will use tactical nukes on its own territory).

The actual question is: why to do it? It won't be an easy walk in a park like Desert Storm. The north of the Korean peninsula is a mountainous terrain, providing excellent conditions for the defenders. And again, the nukes problem mentioned above. Even one warhead fallen on South Korea or Japan is an unacceptable price. And, moreover - price for what? Fine, you do overthrow the Kim's government - but what's next? Who will take the responsibility of feeding 24 million people (minus those who don't survive the war) once the country is finished, and accept massive numbers of refugees from the ruined areas? The refugee crisis on the Middle East is already bad, here the things will be even worse.

 

[Robin]

If that was VX nerve gas then boy are things going to hit the fan, that's a chemical warfare release on foreign soil which could have killed many people in that airport.

 

[Dennisch]

If that was VX nerve gas then boy are things going to hit the fan, that's a chemical warfare release on foreign soil which could have killed many people in that airport.

You mean like Obama's red line in Syria?

 

[TheCracker]

Why?

Well, technically, China has a security treaty with DPRK, but some experts say that China would not enter a war on North Korea's side. China itself is being annoyed by the poor neighbour that keeps providing problems, refugees and (almost) nothing in exchange. And in case if the DPRK gets attacked, China will most likely go with a public condemnation only (and possibliy receive a secret compensation from US, South Korea and Japan for the caused inconvenience).

As for Russia, it has no reason to protect North Korea at all. IMO, what RF would do in case if the fires start is deploy some troops on the border and Triumph SAM's to intercept possible air threats to the Russian territory. And, probably, set the Civil Defense forces on high alert due to possible radiation threat (it is likely that NK will use tactical nukes on its own territory).

China don't care about North Korea, but any conflict would be on their border. No country wants conflict on it's borders, not with nations armed to the teeth and unpredictable. China could not and would not just sit by and let it happen.

The best case scenario of a brief spat followed quickly by the DPRK regime being overthrown and a South Korean-led reunification, would leave China with a country with strong ties with the US on it's borders, which neither China or Russia would be happy with.

The actual question is: why to do it? It won't be an easy walk in a park like Desert Storm. The north of the Korean peninsula is a mountainous terrain, providing excellent conditions for the defenders. And again, the nukes problem mentioned above. Even one warhead fallen on South Korea or Japan is an unacceptable price. And, moreover - price for what? Fine, you do overthrow the Kim's government - but what's next? Who will take the responsibility of feeding 24 million people (minus those who don't survive the war) once the country is finished, and accept massive numbers of refugees from the ruined areas? The refugee crisis on the Middle East is already bad, here the things will be even worse.

This is exactly why NK has been a thorn in it's neighbours (and their close allies) sides for 60+ plus years. Any conflict with them would be such a loose/loose situation for all involved and the region as a whole, where tensions are already high between many countries with all the disputed islands in the South China Sea.

 

[Sanji Himura]

If that was VX nerve gas then boy are things going to hit the fan, that's a chemical warfare release on foreign soil which could have killed many people in that airport.

It's still there, according to The Guardian. Malaysian authorities still haven't secured that terminal, half of it is because they didn't know what killed Jong Nam.

It was also dispursed in a bicompound formula that was mixed when it hit his face. That was done to protect the lives of the assassins as VX would've killed them before they got to the target.

 

[Dan]

God, this really is straight out of a spy film:

• A family member of one of the most ruthless dictators in the world is assassinated by his henchmen
• He is killed in public
• The poison is called "VX nerve agent." It's so powerful, it doesn't get a normal name; it just has letters, and one of them is "X."

 

[prisonermonkeys]

The poison is called "VX nerve agent." It's so powerful, it doesn't get a normal name; it just has letters, and one of them is "X."

The name is derived from the classification. VX is an organophosphate, and closely related to phosphate-based insecticides and herbicides. There are several nerve agents within the V-series, such as VG; VX is simply the most potent and the most toxic of them. The full name is "Venomous agent X".

 

[TenEightyOne]

The poison is called "VX nerve agent." It's so powerful, it doesn't get a normal name; it just has letters, and one of them is "X."

Well, it has 0-Ethyl Methylphosphonothioate, although I guess that's not quite normal

 

[prisonermonkeys]

it has 0-Ethyl Methylphosphonothioate

It rolls right off the tongue. Unless you put your tongue in it, in which case your tongue rolls out of your mouth.

 

[Sanji Himura]

And to think that NK's own people was used to test the poison in that formula.

 

[Blitz24]

NK might as well put out a statement blaming Indonesia and Malaysia for the assassination. For added measure they should call South Korea crybabies and inform the world that China's coal is garbage.

 

[FoRiZon]

Reminded that this is the same poison used in Syrian Civil War.

This Democratic People's Republic of Tyranny always amuses me.

 

[Blitz24]

Reminded that this is the same poison used in Syrian Civil War.

This Democratic People's Republic of Tyranny always amuses me.

If they weren't so dangerous they could easily be doing a comedy troupe.

 

[Rage Racer]

The best case scenario of a brief spat followed quickly by the DPRK regime being overthrown and a South Korean-led reunification, would leave China with a country with strong ties with the US on it's borders, which neither China or Russia would be happy with.

I'm not sure about China, but Russia, IMO, would be happy to have a land border with the Republic of Korea. It's a way better trade partner than DPRK. Regarding the "strong ties with US" and possible US troops near the border, Russia already has plenty of NATO troops on its western borders so there isn't much to lose. And apparently it won't be worth joining a war.

But, unfortunately, the South Korean-led reunification you're talking about is a VERY unlikely scenario. For 60+ years, there are two different nations formed already. They've passed the point of no return on the question of reunification long time ago. By the time of reunification of Germany, the gap between the economies of FRG and GDR was about 5 times (if I remember it right) and it still leaves a mark on the present-day Germany. The western Germans still pay the "solidarity tax". Now back to Koreas - the North Korea is over 20 times poorer than the South. Even if they hypothetically reuinite, this will put a HUGE stress on the economy of RK. I doubt they would like such "happiness".

And to think that NK's own people was used to test the poison in that formula.

Well it wasn't North Korea that first tested VX.
It was first sythesized in the UK in 1950's and was supposed to be a pesticide, but it turned out extremely toxic so it was banned from agricultural use (300 times more toxic than phosgene used during the World War I).

Currently, VX is officially adopted by US and Russia only, but may also be possessed somewhere else (including North Korea). It is said that Saddam Hussein had used VX against Kurds in the '80s.

Well, it has 0-Ethyl Methylphosphonothioate, although I guess that's not quite normal

It rolls right off the tongue.

Well, I'm a chemist, so such names are fine for my tongue. Chemical weapons isn't my speciality though (neither the organophosphates), but we've learned about them in my university.
Currently, I'm working on some compounds that are supposed to be UV absorbers, but... who knows

Reminded that this is the same poison used in Syrian Civil War.

No, it's a different one. The one reportedly used in Syria was sarin, which is a nerve gas and an organophosphorus compound, too, but an older one (discovered before WWII by Nazi German scientists who tried to make a more powerful pesticide, too).

 

[Sanji Himura]

Well it wasn't North Korea that first tested VX.
It was first sythesized in the UK in 1950's and was supposed to be a pesticide, but it turned out extremely toxic so it was banned from agricultural use (300 times more toxic than phosgene used during the World War I).

Currently, VX is officially adopted by US and Russia only, but may also be possessed somewhere else (including North Korea). It is said that Saddam Hussein had used VX against Kurds in the '80s.

I wasn't referring to the VX itself, but rather the process of how it was used to kill Jong Nam.