@ large (geddit?):
The PS4 is going to be super expensive.
Why? Just because the PS3 was so expensive? Well, why was PS3 so pricey at launch? Do you guys even remember?
- The Cell and its Broadband Engine was cutting edge octo-core chip tech running at a blistering 3.2ghz, when quad-core CPUs were still rather new, or yet to be produced (2005). And 3ghz CPUs were high dollar, even with bulk OEM PC versions.
- PS3 used high speed, boutique for the time, XDR Dram for system memory, and GDDR3 graphics ram for the RSX GPU. Even in bulk raw chips, it wasn't cheap to begin with.
- The Blu-ray drive was bleeding edge tech, and worse, the necessary blue-violet laser diodes were in short supply for several months, making the optical drive very expensive, and in short supply through late 2006.
These are the reasons why PS3 was so expensive for a year, and in short supply - it didn't even release in Europe until spring 2007.
These days, high speed (3ghz) multicore CPUs - Cell or whatever, polycore GPUs and fast ram are almost cheap as chips, if you'll pardon the pun. The GPU will probably be a core chipset of slightly modified design, and not bleeding edge, as you won't likely ever run any games beyond 1080p, or one HD step up, but then I'm not sure what standards HDTVs are shooting for by 2015. I think HDTV is going to remain at 1080p for the foreseeable future, but with framerates of 60-240hz. The system will likely use 6GB or less of ram, and as I say, fast ram OEM bulk chips not manufactured on cards for PCs isn't very much these days.
We don't know for sure what the optical drive will be, but will likely be a multi-layer, much faster Blu-ray drive, and you can get
writable Blu-ray drives as cheap as $70 for PC, and those are single unit manufactured for installation into PCs with cases, not raw base drive units SONY would manufacture in massive numbers for PS4. 1TB SATA III laptop hard drives are less than $110, and again, are single unit drives, not bulk purchase drives, and who knows how much less they will cost next year? SSD is sexy and all, but I doubt that SONY is going to stuff a big SS drive in PS4. If anything, a small affordable SSD could be used for precaching game loads, but I doubt this will happen.
The only thing I can think of that might bump up the price substantially is some ridiculously powerful controller system like some combo of the Wii-U controller with a Kinecty device, which I'm very doubtful will happen. If anything, Vita will be an optional input device in this regard. So I expect an upper tier PS4 will cost between $399-449 US, which was roughly the launch price of the 360.
PS4 is going to be hard to program for, so any games will be sucky for some time.
PS3 was designed by Ken Kutaragi, along with engineers from IBM, SONY and I believe Toshiba, and the whole purpose was to create a true next gen power CPU with sky-high performance as the primary design goal. As a result, they came up with an elegant but cantankerous system which gave many coders headaches, even with SONY partners helping school each other.
PS4, its OS and tools have been designed from the start with extensive input from
key SONY developers.
GT5 was SO bad that GT6 may not sell well on a PS4.
Yeah, sure, if we never see anything of it.
Expect it to be a platinum pre-seller just like Prologue and GT5, and to sell like mad in the first year.