Presidential Election: 2012

[Danoff]

More like Game, Set and Match: Romney.

More like Game, Set and Match: Obama.

 

[arora]

More like Game, Set and Match: Obama.

He keeps looking so stupid though, attacking the supreme court? Found it especially odd when he chose the slippery slope of ''these judges arn't even elected''

I guess he represents some one or something, but it's not the people or the law.

 

[livemusic]

I've read Gingrich will be renouncing his candidacy next week and joining Romney.

 

[sumbrownkid]

He keeps looking so stupid though, attacking the supreme court? Found it especially odd when he chose the slippery slope of ''these judges arn't even elected''

I guess he represents some one or something, but it's not the people or the law.

Who Obama or Romney?

Romney for the most part is as stable as my pair of flip flops. At least Obama looks more polished in his political satire.

But the President himself is sitting pretty. He hasn't really engaged campaign mode yet.

 

[Touring Mars]

I've read Gingrich will be renouncing his candidacy next week and joining Romney.

Where did you read that?

Gingrich has released a statement in the last few hours to say that he is going to stay in the race until the RNC, although he did go on record last week to state that he would back Romney if he wins the nomination, but he didn't say anything about dropping out.

Santorum's departure will probably mean that Gingrich's campaign gets a timely and much needed boost, and because Santorum has not formally ended his campaign, his delegates are still bound to him and thus it remains possible for Romney to fail to reach the all important 1,144 delegates.

That said, I think Gingrich knows the game is up, and I wouldn't be surprised if he did drop out. With Santorum gone, the GOP will no doubt be wanting to wrap up the nomination battle in good time, so that the party (and more specifically Mitt Romney) can focus completely on the Presidential Election itself.

 

[Dennisch]

This might be some good news for Mr. Paul. Maybe now he can get some more coverage by the networks. Even the Daily Show and the Colbert Report don't mention him.

 

[Sam48]

Good news for Gingrich then..right? Presumably, all the votes Santorum got were mainly anti-Romney votes, but now that he's out, I would expect Gingrich's 8% average to jump to at least 25% in the primaries.

 

[arora]

Who Obama or Romney?

Well, Obama ......

More like Game, Set and Match: Obama.

..............................

I don't recal of any time Romney has challanged the supreme court. He's probably in favor of thrashing the constitution though also, especially since this healthcare bill is his model.

 

[Dapper]

I don't recal of any time Romney has challanged the supreme court. He's probably in favor of thrashing the constitution though also, especially since this healthcare bill is his model.

I hope when Obama and Romney debate Obama says "It was your idea!"

 

[arora]

He'll sound a bit like John Kerry ''I voted against it before I voted for it''

 

[Keef]

 

[Dennisch]

That voice. Reminds me of K-Rose radio.

 

[DK]

I actually got this news 3 hours ago, but my spam filter blocked it.

It said "Santorum is dropping out"...

In all seriousness, good riddance. It's a sad day when someone is more worried about what goes on in the bedroom than in a boardroom becomes a serious contender for a very important role.

 

[FoolKiller]

Unless all the Santorum vote goes toward Ron Paul, still maintaining the opportunity of a brokered convention, I fear it is safe to say that we will have four more years, no matter which party wins.

 

[arora]

^ True dat.

 

[Keef]

Unless all the Santorum vote goes toward Ron Paul, still maintaining the opportunity of a brokered convention, I fear it is safe to say that we will have four more years, no matter which party wins.

I feel for your daughter, I really do. But hey, at least she's got a decade or more of carefree living ahead of her. Sometimes I feel I'd rather be totally ignorant than to think about what all will go wrong in the future.

 

[YSSMAN]

Unless all the Santorum vote goes toward Ron Paul, still maintaining the opportunity of a brokered convention, I fear it is safe to say that we will have four more years, no matter which party wins.

Oh, it would be mathematically impossible for Ron Paul to get the delegates necessary to grab the nomination. Even if he managed to prevent a majority going into the hands of Romney, it would likely end up being a brokered convention in his favor. Of all the candidates there, he's the only one who has a shot in the majority of states, but not in enough to win.

As I was explaining to some family members during Easter. With the economy at least feeling like it is getting better, economic critiques and challenges by Romney aren't likely to be at the forefront of the debate. If they're going to make it about "family values" and perspectives on the size/scope of government, they may as well roll over and give up now. They've alienated the youth, they've alienated females, and they sure as hell have alienated their own base. As much as the press will make it seem like a close race, it won't be.

 

[Touring Mars]

I think Romney will win the nomination outright, even if Gingrich and Paul stay in the race until the national convention in Tampa.

According to the official GOP website, the bound delegate count currently stands at:

Romney: 573
Santorum: 202
Gingrich: 132
Paul: 26
Unbound: 101

Romney also has substantial (double figure) leads in three of the four remaining Winner-Takes-All primaries (NJ, CA, UT), yielding another 262 delegates (279 including Delaware) to Romney.

There are also the remaining proportional primaries, which, based on a lower estimate of Romney's current share of the vote, would translate into the following delegates for Romney (estimated Romney vote in brackets):

Pennsylvania: 25 (35%)
Texas: 46 (30%) *Texas may become WTA, in which case, 155 delegates go to the winner
New York: 38 (40%) **If someone gets 50% of the vote, then NY becomes WTA and the winner gets all 95 delegates
N Carolina: 16 (30%)

Note that the delegate counts here are low estimates, given that Romney's share of the delegates could easily be higher than his % of the vote in each of these cases mentioned. Picking up just 20% from all the other proportional primaries (again, a low estimate) would yield Romney another 56 delegates, bringing his (low estimate) total from this category to 181, with a further 166 delegates possible if a) Romney gets 50% of the NY vote (likely), and b) Romney wins in Texas and Texas converts to winner-takes-all (less likely). (Note, though, that Romney could miss out on 46 delegates if he loses Texas and Texas is winner-takes-all...)

Then there are the projected delegates from non-binding caucuses, which, although likely to vary considerably from current estimates, would yield Romney atleast another 90 delegates, but this is probably a (very) low estimate, especially given that Santorum is now out of the running. (There are 433 delegates up for grabs in this category).

This brings Romney's total to atleast 1106 already, and we've not counted Romney's possible share of the 101 unbound delegates from non-caucus states yet. Add to this a possible outright win in New York for Romney (another 57 delegates), a win in Delaware (another 17 delegates) and the possibility of Santorum's bound candidates becoming unbound (202 delegates), I would now be very surprised if Romney cannot muster the 1144 delegates required to win the nomination outright on the first ballot.

edit: There is also the unbound GOP superdelegates to consider, of which there is something like 120 superdelegates. So far, of 41 superdelegates who have already endorsed a candidate, 35 have endorsed Romney (source) - or 85%, which would translate into another 100 or so delegates for Romney.

 

[Omnis]

What's your source on the delegate count? Paul and Santorum have an anti-Romney slate going to Tampa in a lot of states.

 

[Touring Mars]

What's your source on the delegate count?

http://www.gop.com/index.php/comms/comments/updated_rnc_delegate_count1/

 

[Omnis]

That's weird. Nevada and Wisconsin are definitely off from the reports I've read. It could be that they have a majority of Ron Paul delegates, albeit they are locked into a vote until a second count is brokered.

 

[Touring Mars]

That's weird. Nevada and Wisconsin are definitely off from the reports I've read. It could be that they have a majority of Ron Paul delegates, albeit they are locked into a vote until a second count is brokered.

I think that's about the size of it. In Nevada, for example, Ron Paul won 5 of the 28 bound delegates, and Romney (with 50% of the vote) won 14. But, if my understanding of how the process works is even close to being correct, the actual delegates that are assigned may personally support anyone... and since Ron Paul supporters knew that they needed to stick around in order to become delegates, many of the bound delegates for other candidates are in fact Ron Paul supporters.

So, as it stands, Romney has 14 delegates who are bound to vote for him, but some of them might be Ron Paul supporters who would vote against Romney in the event that they become unbound, either at the RNC in a second ballot (which I don't think will happen) or, perhaps more likely, that they vote to change the rules at the state convention to allow them to vote for who they want.

 

[livemusic]

Where did you read that?

It's just a rumour from a FB page for now. It said Gingrich's campaign has 4 million in debt already.

 

[Keef]

...and since Ron Paul supporters knew that they needed to stick around in order to become delegates, many of the bound delegates for other candidates are in fact Ron Paul supporters.

That is correct sir. There are numerous Ron Paul supporters who actually became delegates for other candidates in those states where their vote is not bound at the state convention. It's documented in some posts on Daily Paul. Some people think that's cheating, but actually it's just following the same rules that everybody else could have followed if they wanted to.

 

[Touring Mars]

There are numerous Ron Paul supporters who actually became delegates for other candidates in those states where their vote is not bound at the state convention. It's documented in some posts on Daily Paul.

Do you have a link?

I'm a little bit confused by this, since I would have thought that being assigned to another candidate means that you are bound to that candidate, otherwise in what regard are Ron Paul supporters 'delegates for other candidates'?

 

[FoolKiller]

Do you have a link?

I'm a little bit confused by this, since I would have thought that being assigned to another candidate means that you are bound to that candidate, otherwise in what regard are Ron Paul supporters 'delegates for other candidates'?

The goal is that if the convention is brokered they become unbound after the first vote, so having your guys as delegates for anyone gives you more votes in that scenario. With Santorum out now and GOP bigs tossing their name behind Romney it looks much less likely now.

Even without the Ron Paul factor I would have loved to see a brokered convention. The madness on national news alone would have been worth it.

 

[Keef]

Do you have a link?

Working on it but the mess of Google results ain't easy. FK explained the idea behind the brokered convention. Beyond that, in some states even delegates chosen for a certain candidate are not bound to that candidate at the state convention level and therefore some Romney delegates, being Paul supporters who stuck around to snag the delegate spots, will automatically vote Paul. Rules are all over the place when it comes to states so what happens in one might not happen in another. There will also be some Santorum delegates migrating to Paul, either because they wanted to or because they were already Paul supporters waiting for a brokered convention.

In the mean time, Ron Paul won a St. Louis-area re-do caucus meeting.

 

[Touring Mars]

The goal is that if the convention is brokered they become unbound after the first vote, so having your guys as delegates for anyone gives you more votes in that scenario.

That's my understanding of it too.

However, the part I didn't get about Keef's post was the reference to the state conventions... perhaps he meant the national convention, but even so, bound delegates are still bound delegates until after the first ballot - and it now looks pretty unlikely that there will be a second ballot.

Tellingly, Santorum phoned Romney to concede defeat the other day - why would he do that if not because he knew that Romney was now able to secure the win?

 

[Keef]

However, the part I didn't get about Keef's post was the reference to the state conventions... perhaps he meant the national convention, but even so, bound delegates are still bound delegates until after the first ballot - and it now looks pretty unlikely that there will be a second ballot.

See post above. In some states, delegates aren't bound to anybody at all. Stupid system and a reason caususes should have disappeared a long time ago, but it's the rules and Paul supporters are just abiding the rules in those states.

Also, an overtly intense video for you all to enjoy.

 

[Touring Mars]

Beyond that, in some states even delegates chosen for a certain candidate are not bound to that candidate at the state convention level and therefore some Romney delegates, being Paul supporters who stuck around to snag the delegate spots, will automatically vote Paul.

In some states, delegates aren't bound to anybody at all.

I understand this, but I was talking about bound delegates.

Ron Paul can only benefit from delegates already bound to other candidates if they are released prior to the RNC (and thus become unbound) or if the RNC goes to a second ballot, which is now pretty unlikely to happen.