Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[McLaren]

Reports of fragging and total disarray within Russian ranks...

Getting run over by a tank by your own men?

Damn.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Are you seriously discussing what Russian propaganda saying? They talking about "radioactive ashes" since 2014.

If you wanna something really interesting take this:

• Anatoly Chubais is in Turkey, taking $ from ATM.
• our minister of defence isnt in public space since march 12
• rumours saying that Zelenskiy asking Biden to not put sanctions at Abramovich

And minute of madness from Russian court:
Girl with poster "fashism will not pass" was condemned for discrediting RF army. Okay.

What would be the purpose of this?

 

[inCloud]

What would be the purpose of this?

Afaik, he is real negotiator with West from Russian side.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

One thing that I've been thinking about is how Russia prepared for this invasion. It would seem as if only the highest levels of command even knew that it was going to happen until it did happen...unless Russia managed to keep a lid on 200,000 young soldiers (many of which appear to be conscripts) which seems implausible. That begs the question....how do you prepare 200,000 young soldiers, many of which were likely completely inexperienced, for an invasion against a motivated adversary without actually informing them of the plan or even that a plan exists? Like can you imagine the D-Day invasion except none of the troops knew that it was actually going to happen or what the plan was until they were told to go? It's just wild when you think about it.

 

[Blitz24]

One thing that I've been thinking about is how Russia prepared for this invasion. It would seem as if only the highest levels of command even knew that it was going to happen until it did happen...unless Russia managed to keep a lid on 200,000 young soldiers (many of which appear to be conscripts) which seems implausible. That begs the question....how do you prepare 200,000 young soldiers, many of which were likely completely inexperienced, for an invasion against a motivated adversary without actually informing them of the plan or even that a plan exists? Like can you imagine the D-Day invasion except none of the troops knew that it was actually going to happen or what the plan was until they were told to go? It's just wild when you think about it.

They were so convinced that the Ukrainians would surrender immediately and gladly accept Russia absorbing their country. That's the only explanation.

 

[inCloud]

It would seem as if only the highest levels of command even knew that it was going to happen until it did happen

Foreign Intelligence Service director didn't know about invasion until February 21.

You should keep in mind that RF army prepare for invasion at least since spring 2021. No one really thought that it would be real thing, but heavy training near Ukraine border was a thing.

They were so convinced that the Ukrainians would surrender immediately and gladly accept Russia absorbing their country. That's the only explanation.

Putin was convinced, not Intelligence. Actually, even NATO thought that Kiev will be captured in 96h.

 

[Dennisch]

NATO thought

They also thought that Russia was a military super power. It really isn't. It has nuclear weapons and that is it. If any of the former USSR states now decides they want to piece of Russia for their own, or China likes to expand a bit, Russia is ****ed. Long, deep and hard. And there won't be any use of courtesy lube.

Also.

 

[Joey D]

Barrage of outgoing fire witnessed in northwest Kyiv

Mariupol, once home to more than 450,000 people, is being "reduced to ashes," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Follow here for live news updates.

www.cnn.com

Ukrainians have pushed Russian forces back to the east of Kyiv, US official says

Mariupol, once home to more than 450,000 people, is being "reduced to ashes," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Follow here for live news updates.

www.cnn.com

I mean imagine having your forces greatly outnumber the other side and having to resort to taking defensive positions. Ukraine is really starting to inch towards the "find out" part of "🤬 around".

 

[sirjim73]

Barrage of outgoing fire witnessed in northwest Kyiv

Mariupol, once home to more than 450,000 people, is being "reduced to ashes," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Follow here for live news updates.

www.cnn.com

Ukrainians have pushed Russian forces back to the east of Kyiv, US official says

Mariupol, once home to more than 450,000 people, is being "reduced to ashes," Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said. Follow here for live news updates.

www.cnn.com

I mean imagine having your forces greatly outnumber the other side and having to resort to taking defensive positions. Ukraine is really starting to inch towards the "find out" part of "🤬 around".

It sounds like a concerted effort is going on from the Ukranians, having halted the Russian advance, to break the intended siege of Kiev from happening.

@Joey D How are you feeling now? I saw that you were having difficulties with recovery from covid before?

 

[Populuxe]

I mean imagine having your forces greatly outnumber the other side

The difference may not be as large as we've been led to believe.

Per Markos Moulitsas at Daily Kos:

Ukraine update: Does Russia really have a bigger army? Nope

Putting aside Russia’s advantages in military hardware (missiles, artillery, aircraft, more modern tanks), there is an assumption that Russia can also overwhelm Ukraine numerically, that no matter how bad things go for the invaders, that there’s always...

www.dailykos.com

Let’s focus on the “ground forces” numbers, because Russia’s navy is mostly irrelevant in the conflict, and it is unable to move more naval resources into the Black Sea given that Turkey has shut down access to military ships. The Air Force? Well, it looks huge on paper. Not that we’ve seen those numbers in the skies of Ukraine. But what about the ground forces?

That 850,000 number above, oft-cited, is actually all Russian military personnel—including Air Force, navy, and other security forces. The actual number is around 280,000, of which ~190,000 has already been committed to the war. Russia has an additional 2 million potential reserves. The separatist Donbas republicans had 44,000 men to add to the mix.

Meanwhile, Ukraine had 215,000 in its army, plus 53,000 border guards, 60,000 national guard, plus another 167,000 in the territorial defense forces. There were 220,000 in its reservers, which have obviously been called up. So altogether, we’re talking around 715,000. Now, some of these might be double-counted, they might be exaggerated, they may be sitting in western Ukraine waiting for equipment to show up. But fact is, there’s a lot of bodies to call on for as long as Ukraine has the will to take combat losses.

 

[inCloud]

I mean imagine having your forces greatly outnumber the other side and having to resort to taking defensive positions.

Ukraine and RF army's in that war are comparable if you count that RF is country with biggest border and cant concentrate all its force at one point. Also Ukraine have better combat experience, higher moral and advantage of defender.

They also thought that Russia was a military super power

And it is. We don't know if USA or China or India will do any better against Ukraine while having similar positions. No one is stupid enough to call USA nonsuperpower because they ****ed in Vietnam, N.Korea or Afghanistan.

If any of the former USSR states now decides they want to piece of Russia for their own, or China likes to expand a bit, Russia is ****ed.

Nukes.

The difference may not be as large as we've been led to believe.

Correct but no one with wiki-tier experience would think otherwise. You cant siege cities with comparable forces, you need at least to outnumber defenders by x3(and be ready for BIG casualties). Only way here is shock and awe or heavy bombarding.

 

[Exorcet]

They also thought that Russia was a military super power. It really isn't. It has nuclear weapons and that is it.

Russia isn't at the top of military technology, but the country did inherit a lot from the USSR besides nuclear weapons. This war has shown that they're not as strong as they could be but I think part of it is a combination of lacking morale and military structure. The USSR was always built around defense rather offense. Unlike the US they suffered a large invasion in WWII and that shaped their thinking for the following decades up to today. The US had to support allies across the globe. Consequently US military doctrine grew into being able to fight anyone, anywhere, at any time. Russian doctrine was about making the homeland impenetrable. Ukraine as a former Soviet state inherited Soviet hardware which sets them up for defensive combat. This means Russia vs Ukraine is sort of a battle of turtles where the defender has an advantage. Then again, one might expect the bigger turtle to do better than it has.

 

[Populuxe]

This is a pretty fascinating thread about how Putin has kept the military weak through corruption in order to protect his own power. The military is the only thing that can threaten him, so he keeps it weak by eliminating strong leaders, replacing them with idiots, and parallel lines of power so no one group can threaten him.

 

[unit-one]

Several Russian warships got bombed in Berdyansk.

 

[Dennisch]

 

[Liquid]

If any of the former USSR states now decides they want to piece of Russia for their own, or China likes to expand a bit, Russia is ****ed.

It wouldn't be an open and shut case (Georgia's borders are still being eroded by definitely not Russian guerillas by a few metres every day) but it would be interesting if Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China or North Korea tried to take back the little bits their ancestors lost to Russia.

 

[Blitz24]

It wouldn't be an open and shut case (Georgia's borders are still being eroded by definitely not Russian guerillas by a few metres every day) but it would be interesting if Kazakhstan, Mongolia, China or North Korea tried to take back the little bits their ancestors lost to Russia.

North Korea probably will not because that would be a bigger geopolitical issue for China.

 

[inCloud]

our minister of defence isnt in public space since march 12

There is chances that he under arrest. Today there was video conference with him, but he wasn't prepared for it, which is strange.

 

[Brett]

Russia Has Already Lost

There is no clear path to a positive outcome for Russia in Ukraine. It could win every future battle, but it has already lost.

www.thedrive.com

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

Russia Has Already Lost

There is no clear path to a positive outcome for Russia in Ukraine. It could win every future battle, but it has already lost.

www.thedrive.com

One thing is clear is that the optics look really bad for Russia. Aside from a few allies you could count on 1 hand, the entire world is looking at Russia like the villain here, and the economic toll will be profound for years to come. Just as bad, Russia looks pretty weak. When this whole thing started I was worried that Putin was on a warpath that would soon engulf Poland and the Baltic states. It's pretty clear now that Russia would have zero chance against a motived NATO. The most concerning thing about all of this, again, is that this is highly personal for a single person at the helm. I'm certain that Putin is out of his head with rage right now and I hope he doesn't do anything stupid.

 

[Dennisch]

I hope he doesn't do anything stupid

I hope he does and that it involves having a loaded gun pointed at his face.

 

[Blitz24]

I hope he does and that it involves having a loaded gun pointed at his face.

I second @Eunos_Cosmo because "something stupid" also qualifies as "using a nuclear weapon".

 

[Dennisch]

I second @Eunos_Cosmo because "something stupid" also qualifies as "using a nuclear weapon".

I prefer that he shoots himself.

I no longer try to think about what he might do with his army and weapons because I was confident he wouldn't invade, excuse me, bring peace to Ukraine. And look where we are now.

 

[Eunos_Cosmo]

I prefer that he shoots himself.

I no longer try to think about what he might do with his army and weapons because I was confident he wouldn't invade, excuse me, bring peace to Ukraine. And look where we are now.

The old Adolfo. Classic.

Adolf didn't have nuclear weapons though. I doubt Russia and the Allies would have chanced a full invasion of Berlin if he did. Without losing Berlin, he wouldn't have shot himself - he did it because it was really, honestly, the best thing he could do at the time. The Soviets were not going to be kind to him, and they were going to get him first. Putin has really only Russians to fear, and I don't think even in a worst case scenario there is a situation where he can't flee to some secret panic mansion that nobody will ever find. He's too much of a narcissist to ingest 9x18 Makarov.

 

[Joey D]

Russian army forcibly deports about 6,000 Mariupol residents to Russian filtration camps – MFA

The Russian army has already forcibly deported about 6,000 residents of Mariupol to Russian filtration camps in order to use them as hostages for political pressure on Ukraine, the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has reported.

interfax.com.ua

I'm not 100% sure what a "filtration camp" is, but based on everything I've been reading about them they're just concentration camps with extra steps to ensure "proper" ethnic cleansing. Guess Putin is wanting to take another step towards all-out genocide and channel his inner Hitler.

 

[eran0004]

Meanwhile, on Duolingo:

 

[Nielsen]

At this rate the war will probably end with a nuclear reactor meltdown forcing everyone to leave the country. No winners on either side.

 

[TexRex]

They can always wash their hands.

 

[Rage Racer]

I thought I'll respond to another member this time, but it seems like I'm about to get banned from posting in this thread (or even on this whole forum) for alleged misinformation, so let me at least explain before that happens.

You borderline into outright missinformation now

Putin, once critical of Stalin, now embraces Soviet dictator's tactics

Only six years ago, President Vladimir Putin visited the Polish port of Gdansk, birthplace of the Solidarity movement that threw off Soviet domination, and reassured his Eastern European neighbors that Russia had only friendly intentions.

www.latimes.com

Where is misinformation? How does it contradict what I said?
What I read here is the journalist's own speculations, a phrase of some Stalin era born citizen, an opinion of one historian (where he draws parallels like "Stalin was a rival to the West, Putin is a rival to the West, too"), a Stalin museum been opened (like museum is supposed to only glorify someone who this museum is about) and Putin praising the non-agression pact with the Third Reich (but not the secret protocol about dividing the spheres of influence). Based on this, the author concludes that Putin admires Stalin and you conclude that I misinform when I say Russia acknowledges the crimes of Stalinism.

But in the real Russia I live in (not the one you read about on media), Stalin is a very controversal person, and any positive (or negative) opinion about him on public causes an immediate ****storm. That historian mentioned in that LAT article, Nikolai Svanidze, once had a brawl on radio air where he punched his opponent in the face when they argued about Stalin. On the history lessons in my school, we all were told about GULAG, mass repressions, purges and other horrible attributes of Stalin era, but also about industrialization and victory in WWII - and the price they're paid for. "Great achievements, but also great sacrifices". Medvedev openly called Stalin a criminal during his presidency, while Putin refers to him as to a "controversal person". There are very polar opinions about Stalin in the Russian society so the government prefers to just avoid talking about him, not even to mention glorifying. There's no Stalin in Russian geography or city/street names since the '60s. If you mean to compare that to Ukraine's state honoring of Bandera and Shukhevich, it's not even close.

@inCloud, can you confirm? How often do you see Stalin being glorified by our state (not by pensioners who say "Сталина на вас нет!" ["too bad there's no Stalin for you!"] when they scold young people)?

being glamourised by Putin

All the "glamourisation" I've seen by your link on LAT (article of 2015) was Putin praising the USSR for avoiding the war with Hitler in 1939. But he spoke separately on the secret protocols (Putin's article on National Interest of 2020).

In these circumstances, the Soviet Union signed the Non-Aggression Pact with Germany. It was practically the last among the European countries to do so. Besides, it was done in the face of a real threat of war on two fronts – with Germany in the west and with Japan in the east, where intense fighting on the Khalkhin Gol River was already underway.

Stalin and his entourage, indeed, deserve many legitimate accusations. We remember the crimes committed by the regime against its own people and the horror of mass repressions. In other words, there are many things the Soviet leaders can be reproached for, but poor understanding of the nature of external threats is not one of them. They saw how attempts were made to leave the Soviet Union alone to deal with Germany and its allies. Bearing in mind this real threat, they sought to buy precious time needed to strengthen the country's defenses.

Nowadays, we hear lots of speculations and accusations against modern Russia in connection with the Non-Aggression Pact signed back then. Yes, Russia is the legal successor state to the USSR, and the Soviet period – with all its triumphs and tragedies – is an inalienable part of our thousand-year-long history. However, let us recall that the Soviet Union gave a legal and moral assessment of the so-called Molotov–Ribbentrop Pact. The Supreme Soviet in its resolution of 24 December 1989 officially denounced the secret protocols as "an act of personal power" which in no way reflected "the will of the Soviet people who bear no responsibility for this collusion."

Now where is he glamourising Stalin, and where am I wrong about the Russian state acknowledging the terror of Stalinism? Aren't you the one misinforming people here?

Putin, who is also a ring wing Russian nationalist.

A right-wing nationalist who continues to carry Central Asian immigrants in (personally cancelling the deportation of illegals) and even "glamourises Stalin" (as you say)? I suppose it's not easy to see from the UK, but that's not what real Russian right-wing nationalists look like. In reality, they are usually far from glorifying Putin and especially Stalin.

What Putin awarded Wagner medals for (and it was more than just Utkin) were war crimes, ones endorsed by the Russian state.

So yeah, the Russian state does award neo-Nazis, for war crimes as well. So please don't claim otherwise.

War crimes? Not for distinguished service but exactly for war crimes? Do you have any information what war crimes are they awarded for, or you're misinforming again?

Not to mention your false equivalence of Nazi collaborators and Ukrainian SS divisions being glorified publicly and for many years by the Ukrainian state (with parades, monuments and street naming), to Putin awarding his officers (who don't brag about their supposed Nazi beliefs) without media publicity. Not many people in Russia even know who are Utkin and Wagner PMC while Ukraine made Bandera and Shukhevich the national heroes. See the difference?

Nor does the presence of a minority of NeoNazis in Ukraine justify an invasion.

And even if it is true, no one in this thread has either denied that Neo-Nazis exist in Ukraine, or have condoned that fact. However, that DOES NOT (all caps as you seem to be unable to take this information in) mean that Neo-Nazi's are widespread in the country, nor does it justify an illegal invasion.

Did I say it justifies the invasion? Where?
This whole Nazi discourse began when one member mocked the idea of Nazi battalions (not only Azov) serving for Ukrainian force because "they have a Jewish president!!", like Zelensky's Jewishness is some kind of obstacle for that (even Schwarznegger seems to think so). He was well aware about the Nazi problem in his country, but wasn't able to do anything about it. Or he just didn't want to. Or both.

Cut the one-sided nonsense, you have already been corrected on this in this thread in the past, if you continue to break the AUP in this regard you will find your posting privileges removed.

Censor me all you like. But then you'll have to mute around a half of this thread for multiple cases of misinformation that I can prove. However, I'm not sure you'll let me do this.

But alright, let's get back to where you said you corrected me:

Russia arguably changed it's position as a party to the accords, to moderator of the accords. A position that almost no-one but Russia agree as accurate. Russia views the accords as being between the breakaway states and Ukraine, just about everyone else sees them as between Russia and Ukraine.

Yes. And?
Point 4 of the Minsk II treaty says: "On the first day after the pullout a dialogue is to start on modalities of conducting local elections in accordance with the Ukrainian legislation..."

Who would Ukraine have to start a dialogue with? With those who de-facto have control of the areas - the self-proclaimed governments of the breakaway states. Because Russia didn't attach them to its own territory like Crimea. "Talk to me about L/DPR? They aren't mine! Talk to them, and I'll get them talking anytime you want". But Ukraine just didn't want to negotiate with them, because that would mean to recognize them as legitmate parties of the conflict.

Medvedev went on a (Kremlin backed) anti-Semitic tirade about how Russia should not negotiate with Ukraine. A view the Kremlin described as "Medvedev’s article “runs in unison” with Russia’s view of the current Ukrainian government."

By the time Medvedev said this, Zelensky had been a president for 2 years, but still had done nothing for the Minsk accords, so he had grounds to think so. However, Medvedev isn't the one to decide whether Russia would or wouldn't talk to Ukraine. The "Iron Dimon" said straight what he thought, but Putin was more patient and gave Ukraine one more chance to negotiate. Shortly before the Z-day, Putin had a meeting with Macron, where he said that inmodest phrase addressed to Zelensky about the Minsk agreements - "like it or not - tough it out, my beauty!", calling him to follow the agreements one last time.

And what's anti-Semitic here? Medvedev mentions Zelensky's Jewish descent to shame him for collaboration with neo-Nazi forces. People on the West think it's nonsense for a country with Jewish president to have Nazi units in the army and police. And yes, it's nonsense - a nonsense that is happening in reality. More to that, Ukraine officially honors the OUN-B, the nationalist organization whose members served in Abwehr's Nachtigall battalion that directly took part in Holocaust, slaughtering Zelensky's tribesmen! That's what the ex-president of RF was talking about.

Russia itself undermined and derailed talks by publishing classified correspondence aimed at restarting talks. Oddly they did so in an attempt to show they didn't refuse to attend talks by releasing documents showing they refused to attend talks!

From what I understand in this story, the "Normandy format" eventually came to a dead end for reason above - different positioning of Russia's role in the Donbass conflict.

But none of these changes the fact that Russia repeatedly urged Ukraine to comply with Minsk II and Ukraine repeatedly responded like "**** off, I'm not going to". If Ukraine wasn't able to follow them, it shouldn't have signed these treaties. In April 2021, Zelensky suggested to edit the Minsk II agreements, but didn't explain to Moscow what exactly did he want to change in them, and said again that he still wasn't willing to negotiate with the representatives of the breakaway states.

So, I'm not misinforming or breaking the AUP in any other way. But you still can silence me if you want, I don't care much. It seems to me that very few people in this thread are interested to hear an alternative perspective instead of blindly consuming all the propaganda from mainstream media, so I'm losing interest to this discussion.

 

[SestoScudo]

You have a lot of people believing wagners are just cannon fodder mercs.

Thats not the case they seem to be pretty well trained and have pretty good equipment compared to the average Russian soldier.