Russian Invasion of Ukraine

[Dotini]

July 16th, the day before MH17, marked an important date in the conflict. That's the day a Russian jet fighter downed a Ukrainian Su-25 with air-to-air missiles. Two more Su-25s have gone down since. Why? The Su-25 has proved to be quite successful in attacking separatist ground targets.

Tonight, CNN reports US State Department (yes, Jen Psaki) evidence of Russian artillery fire into Ukraine in support of rebel operations. CNN also reports Russian multiple rocket launchers and other heavy-duty hardware being transported into the hands of the rebels. They report new massing of Russian troops at the border.

So at length it seems here and now is where Russia draws the line and begins to show its hand with respect to east Ukraine.

 

[Rage Racer]

July 16th, the day before MH17, marked an important date in the conflict. That's the day a Russian jet fighter downed a Ukrainian Su-25 with air-to-air missiles. Two more Su-25s have gone down since. Why? The Su-25 has proved to be quite successful in attacking separatist ground targets.

Tonight, CNN reports US State Department (yes, Jen Psaki) evidence of Russian artillery fire into Ukraine in support of rebel operations. CNN also reports Russian multiple rocket launchers and other heavy-duty hardware being transported into the hands of the rebels. They report new massing of Russian troops at the border.

So at length it seems here and now is where Russia draws the line and begins to show its hand with respect to east Ukraine.

Perhaps it's a reply for attacks of the Russian territory by Ukrainian armed forces. First - our border checkpoints, then - a small border town Donetsk, with one civilian killed. No wonder that Genshtab finally does something to protect our land. If, say, Cuba attacked the US territory, I wonder how much time would it take before Cuba gets "democratized".

 

[Xilor]

15 more civilians killed in Lugansk, and 60 injured in mortar fire attacks by the Ukrainian govt.

It seems they're taking advantage of the fact everyone's attention is on the plane crash to be more aggressive and reckless then ever.

 

[TenEightyOne]

15 more civilians killed in Lugansk, and 60 injured in mortar fire attacks by the Ukrainian govt.

It seems they're taking advantage of the fact everyone's attention is on the plane crash to be more aggressive and reckless then ever.

No, as I said, this has been going on in one-place-or-another for some time. Possibly your preferred news feed has only swung its eyes that way since the crash... that's been the effect on a lot of channels.

The war in mainland Europe hadn't registered its proper weight with many non-European news channels until then. It's a nasty nasty situation and was even before MH17 took off.

 

[Xilor]

No, as I said, this has been going on in one-place-or-another for some time. Possibly your preferred news feed has only swung its eyes that way since the crash... that's been the effect on a lot of channels.

The war in mainland Europe hadn't registered its proper weight with many non-European news channels until then. It's a nasty nasty situation and was even before MH17 took off.

Trust me, as someone born and raised in Ukraine, and with family still living there, I've been following this conflict since the very start, regardless of whether the local media feels like covering it or not.

What I meant with my post was that the Ukrainian govt. seems to be more aggressive right now then its ever been. Donetsk and Lugansk have been under constant artillery fire for the past week, over that time there's been over 50 civilian casualties reported.

 

[Dotini]

...the Ukrainian govt. seems to be more aggressive right now then its ever been. Donetsk and Lugansk have been under constant artillery fire for the past week, over that time there's been over 50 civilian casualties reported.

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/29/world/europe/civilian-death-toll-rise-in-ukraine.html?_r=0
The New York Times, no friend of Russia or east Ukraine separatists, cites a UN report of 800 civilians killed and 2155 wounded, mainly due to use of crude artillery and jet fighter strafing attacks on civilian occupied areas.

"The killings have left the population in eastern Ukraine embittered toward Ukraine’s pro-Western government, and are helping to spur recruitment for the pro-Russian militias. In time, even if the Ukrainian military routs the rebels and retakes the east, the civilian deaths are likely to leave deep resentments here, and could complicate reconciliation efforts for decades."

 

[Xilor]

Oh there's going to be decades of resentment now, much like after the Kosovo War.

That's something that doesn't get discussed often enough, assuming the Ukrainian govt. manages to "put down" the rebellion with help from the West, what do they expect to happen next? Do they think the Ukrainians and the primarily Russian population of the Donetsk region will suddenly become best friends again?

At this point, letting the DNR be as an independent republic would be the best outcome for everyone involved. Its no longer a war of reason but a war of principles.

 

[Dotini]

The Independent reports a deal to end the conflict. The deal makes it clear the Russians will likely support the MH17 investigation to completion.

Germany and Russia have been working on a secret plan to broker a peaceful solution to end international tensions over the Ukraine.

The Independent can reveal that the peace plan, being worked on by both Angela Merkel and Vladimir Putin, hinges on two main ambitions: stabilising the borders of Ukraine and providing the financially troubled country with a strong economic boost, particularly a new energy agreement ensuring security of gas supplies.

More controversially, if Ms Merkel’s deal were to be acceptable to the Russians, the international community would need to recognise Crimea’s independence and its annexation by Russia, a move that some members of the United Nations might find difficult to stomach.

Sources close to the secret negotiations claim that the first part of the stabilisation plan requires Russia to withdraw its financial and military support for the various pro-separatist groups operating in eastern Ukraine. As part of any such agreement, the region would be allowed some devolved powers.

At the same time, the Ukrainian President would agree not to apply to join Nato. In return, President Putin would not seek to block or interfere with the Ukraine’s new trade relations with the European Union under a pact signed a few weeks ago.

Second, the Ukraine would be offered a new long-term agreement with Russia’s Gazprom, the giant gas supplier, for future gas supplies and pricing. At present, there is no gas deal in place; Ukraine’s gas supplies are running low and are likely to run out before this winter, which would spell economic and social ruin for the country.

As part of the deal, Russia would compensate Ukraine with a billion-dollar financial package for the loss of the rent it used to pay for stationing its fleets in the Crimea and at the port of Sevastopol on the Black Sea until Crimea voted for independence in March.
However, these attempts by Ms Merkel to act as a broker between President Putin and the Ukraine’s President, Petro Poroshenko, were put on the back-burner following the shooting down of the MH17 plane in eastern Ukraine.

But insiders who are party to the discussions said yesterday that the “German peace plan is still on the table and the only deal around. Negotiations have stalled because of the MH17 disaster but they are expected to restart once the investigation has taken place.”

Edit: the remainder of the article

“It is in everyone’s interests to do a deal. Hopefully, talks will be revived if a satisfactory outcome can be reached to investigations now taking place as to the causes of the MH17 catastrophe.”

Closer trading ties with the EU have been one of the big ambitions of Mr Poroshenko’s presidency. He has been a staunch supporter of the country’s pro-European movement even though he is unaffiliated to any political party. He was one of the backers of the 2004 Orange Revolution and served as Foreign Minister under Yulia Tymoshenko.

A spokesman for the Foreign and Commonwealth Office said they had no knowledge of such negotiations taking place. However, the spokesman said he thought it highly unlikely that either the US or UK would agree to recognising Russian control over Crimea. There was no one available at the German embassy’s press office yesterday.

Reaching a solution to the ongoing dispute is pertinent for the Germans as Russia is their single biggest trading partner. Under Ms Merkel, the Russo-German axis has strengthened significantly and, until the plane shooting, her government had been staunchly against punitive sanctions for commercial but also diplomatic reasons.

Such strong trade ties between the two countries have also served to strengthen Ms Merkel’s hand and the Russian speaker has emerged as the leading advocate of closer relations between the EU and Russia. “This is Merkel’s deal. She has been dealing direct with President Putin on this. She needs to solve the dispute because it’s in no one’s interest to have tension in the Ukraine or to have Russia out in the cold. No one wants another Cold War,” said one insider close to the negotiations.

Some of Germany’s biggest companies have big operations in Russia, which is now one of Europe’s biggest car markets, while many of its small to medium companies are also expanding into the country. Although Russia now provides EU countries with a third of their gas supplies through pipelines crossing the Ukraine, Germany has its own bilateral gas pipeline direct to Russia making it less vulnerable than other European countries.

However, Russia is still the EU’s third-biggest trading partner with cross-border trade of $460bn (£272bn) last year, and the latest sanctions being introduced by the EU towards Russian individuals and banks will hurt European countries more than any other – particularly Germany, but also the City of London.

Central to the negotiations over any new gas deal with Gazprom is understood to be one of Ukraine’s wealthiest businessmen, the gas broker, Dmitry Firtash. Mr Firtash – who negotiated the first big gas deal between the Ukraine and Russia between 2006 and 2009 – is now living in Vienna fighting extradition charges from the Americans. But he has close relations with the Russian and Ukrainian leaders – he supported Mr Poroschenko – and has been acting as a go-between behind the scenes at the highest levels.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/w...an-deal-could-end-ukraine-crisis-9638764.html

 

[prisonermonkeys]

An advisor to the senior separatist commanders has admitted to the BBC that separatists have carried out extrajuducial killings - whether of civilians or of military personnel is unclear - as they considered the Ukrainian government to be a terrorist organisation. Some of his comments also suggested that the separatists do not want to join Russia so much as form a new state, which they call "Novorossiya".

 

[Dotini]

An advisor to the senior separatist commanders has admitted to the BBC that separatists have carried out extrajuducial killings - whether of civilians or of military personnel is unclear - as they considered the Ukrainian government to be a terrorist organisation. Some of his comments also suggested that the separatists do not want to join Russia so much as form a new state, which they call "Novorossiya".

If the explosive revelations of the Independent are accurate, then the separatists will, to a very large degree, be thrown under the bus. Eastern Ukraine may get some limited autonomy, or devolved powers. But the separatists, their cause(s) and justifications appear to have zero status in the scheme as discussed above in post #1088.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

The challenge will be in rounding them up. Just because a deal is brokered, that doesn't mean they will observe it - especially if they think one of the parties to it is a terrorist organisation.

 

[Rage Racer]

An advisor to the senior separatist commanders has admitted to the BBC that separatists have carried out extrajuducial killings - whether of civilians or of military personnel is unclear - as they considered the Ukrainian government to be a terrorist organisation. Some of his comments also suggested that the separatists do not want to join Russia so much as form a new state, which they call "Novorossiya".

Yes, they have been executing some looters (including their own militiamen) and, possibly, drug dealers.
As far as I know, they consider the new Ukrainian government a "Nazi junta", and Kiev labels the DNR and LNR as "terrorists".

At this point, letting the DNR be as an independent republic would be the best outcome for everyone involved. Its no longer a war of reason but a war of principles.

Not only DNR, but LNR (Lugansk People's Republic), too - they form the Novorossiya confederation (Federal State of Novorossiya).
Their initial goal was not separation from Ukraine, but extended autonomy, the right to use Russian language and keeping their ties with Russia unbroken. But now, after so much blood spilled, the Southeast has no way back. The people of Donbass aren't likely to want to stay within the country that bombed and shelled them so much. Unless there happens another regime change in Ukraine.

BTW, have you seen the flag of Novorossiya?

Nothing to do with the Confederate States of America , it's a modification of the navy jack of the Russian Empire Fleet, which played a big role in the establishment of the historic Novorossiya.

 

[TenEightyOne]

It's believed, according to Rasmussen of NATO and now the UK Foreign office, that this time the Russian troop accumulation at the Ukraini border will move into Ukraine itself. They go on to say that they believe Russia will use the pretext of providing "humanitarian aid". The UK go on to say that this would constitute an act of war, Rasmussen notably stopped short of that point.

This is a worrying development overall. Have Russian strategists mis-read the West's "acceptance" of the Crimea Annexe? Are they genuinely interested in providing Humanitarian aid? Did Putin really kill a tiger with his bare hands after a terrible misunderstanding at a Las Vegas party back in 1992?

Join us next week for updates and a new feature; "What To Do With The Bit Where Ukraine Used To Be".

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I don't think Putin would be stupid enough to invade, even under the guise of "humanitarian aid". He wouldn't gain anything from it, except maybe being struck off NATO's Christmas card list.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I don't think Putin would be stupid enough to invade, even under the guise of "humanitarian aid". He wouldn't gain anything from it, except maybe being struck off NATO's Christmas card list.

Hearing it just from UK politicians wouldn't carry much weight and I have to say that I'm inclined to think Russia won't move across the border.

Here's the Rasmussen interview that I referred to; he tends to be very clear and factual and doesn't follow a political line. In fairness it's not clear in the context of this interview that he thinks there's a risk of Russia moving over the border or if he's simply considering the risk as the chief planner.

 

[TenEightyOne]

...and now the Ukrainians are prepared to consider said humanitarian mission, with strict provisos. Like "no more invasion stuff".

 

[prisonermonkeys]

That convoy of some 300 trucks has vanished. Nobody seems to know where it is. And our Foreign Ministry has gone and pissed off the Russians again by accusing them of intending to use the convoy for an invasion.

To our Russian members, please don't think Julie Bishop's comments are representative of the opinion of the Australian public. She's really seen as a joke down here, known as "Jewellery Bishop". The running gag is that she has no idea where her electorate is, that her job as Foreign Minister would be a lot better if she didn't have to deal with all the foreigners, and that every time she has an original idea, it is immediately stolen by someone else in the government, whom she then applauds, unaware that it was her idea.

She only really got the job in the first place because she's been around forever.

 

[Rage Racer]

They're not vanished, they're right on the border with Ukraine's Kharkiv region - Ukraine refused to let the convoy in.
It looks like Kiev has two options: to let the aid in and show everyone that Moscow's role in the conflict is not so demonic, or refuse to do so and show everyone that they don't give a **** about people lacking food and medicine. In any case, Putin wins again.

Ukraine may want not to let the trucks in, but to accept the cargo and handle it themselves. But, first - reloading cargo from 300 trucks will make it too slow and expensive. Second - it's not clear how Ukrainians will use the cargo. Take it to the civilians of the rebel-controlled areas in need? Or feed the hungry army instead?

intending to use the convoy for an invasion.

 

[VolkswagenX]

This whole mess smelled fishy from the start but its getting more rotten by the day. People eat up all the anti Russia propaganda here and all I keep hearing is lies.

 

[GTracer98]

And sadly it will continue to be like this for a long time. Until the US banking elite and NATO exists, they will always try to eat up as many countries as possible, while lying to them how bad Russia, China etc. are.

The comments in one of Latvian news sites I read are simply idiotic, shows how propagandized and anti-Russia Latvians really are. And, yes, while some Russians who live in Latvia, so called urlas (basically people who mostly live in the Soviet districts of Riga and other cities, who drink/smoke too much, abuse others and have no manners at all) are frankly quite horrible people, that gives no excuse to hate on the whole of Russian people and their culture. For example, the Russian members here on GTP seem very nice and cool! 👍

 

[VolkswagenX]

I also wonder where all this 'mountain of evidence' is Kerry claimed they have that confirms the Russians downed MH17? They probably have a lame excuus to not show us and we just have to take their word on it and keep adding sanctions on Russia ( an act of war).

Everybody is suspiciously silent on the whole MH17 tragedy. Reminds me of the time the us tried to frame Assad by claiming he used chemical weapons. They also had all the evidence but it was super secret and we just had to take their word for it.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I also wonder where all this 'mountain of evidence' is Kerry claimed they have that confirms the Russians downed MH17?

Kerry never said that. He said that the Americans believe that pro-Russian separatists were responsible, and that they were most likely unaware that they were targeting a civilian flight when they fired. He never said that Russia was responsible.

They're not vanished, they're right on the border with Ukraine's Kharkiv region - Ukraine refused to let the convoy in.
It looks like Kiev has two options: to let the aid in and show everyone that Moscow's role in the conflict is not so demonic, or refuse to do so and show everyone that they don't give a **** about people lacking food and medicine. In any case, Putin wins again.

Check your sources - the Ukrainians were more than happy to let the convoy in, provided that the Russians allowed them to inspect the contents before it was distributed.

After all, the Russians have insisted that the convoy is humanitarian in nature. Is it so unreasonable that the Ukrainians want to see to it that they keep their word?

 

[Dotini]

CNBC reporting Ukrainian claim of destroying Russian armored column crossing border and Russian claim of Ukrainian interference with Russian humanitarian column. The reports are conflicting and confusing, but German markets are down, and so are US markets, on worries of weekend escalation.

 

[Dennisch]

CNBC reporting Ukrainian claim of destroying Russian armored column crossing border and Russian claim of Ukrainian interference with Russian humanitarian column. The reports are conflicting and confusing, but German markets are down, and so are US markets, on worries of weekend escalation.

Ukraine confirms it, Nato confirms it, European journalists confirm it, even Russian journalists confirm it.

But not Russia itself. They claim to know nothing about a convoy of armoured personnel carriers...

 

[TenEightyOne]

Kerry never said that. He said that the Americans believe that pro-Russian separatists were responsible, and that they were most likely unaware that they were targeting a civilian flight when they fired. He never said that Russia was responsible.

Check your sources - the Ukrainians were more than happy to let the convoy in, provided that the Russians allowed them to inspect the contents before it was distributed.

After all, the Russians have insisted that the convoy is humanitarian in nature. Is it so unreasonable that the Ukrainians want to see to it that they keep their word?

And the inspection has been completed. Peculiarly... many of the trucks "appeared to be almost completely empty", according to the BBC who were amongst a number of journalists to observe the checks.



@Dennisch I haven't seen anything about an armoured column being destroyed; at least not outside the nut-job sources that report similar events every day somewhere. Do you have a link please? Thank you

 

[Dennisch]

@TenEightyOne

I only have a Dutch news site, which states that the Ukrainian Prime minister told it to Cameron in a telephone conversation.

 

[TenEightyOne]

@TenEightyOne

I only have a Dutch news site, which states that the Ukrainian Prime minister told it to Cameron in a telephone conversation.

Ah, fair enough. I have to say that I'm not sure I'd trust them as a single-source-of-truth right now. Ukraine or Cameron

 

[Rage Racer]

CNBC reporting Ukrainian claim of destroying Russian armored column crossing border and Russian claim of Ukrainian interference with Russian humanitarian column. The reports are conflicting and confusing, but German markets are down, and so are US markets, on worries of weekend escalation.

@TenEightyOne

I only have a Dutch news site, which states that the Ukrainian Prime minister told it to Cameron in a telephone conversation.

If you read more Ukrainian info, you'll find out that UAF keeps resisting multi-thousand hordes of Russian regular military every day, lol.

 

[TenEightyOne]

If you read more Ukrainian info, you'll find out that UAF keeps resisting multi-thousand hordes of Russian regular military every day, lol.

Quite often the Ukrainians defeat Russian missiles with their good, bare, patriotic hands, plucking those evil arrows from the sky as if they were nothing.

In other news the Russians report that Putin has personally won the World Cup for the 4th time in as many months. On a tiger.

 

[Dennisch]

If you read more Ukrainian info, you'll find out that UAF keeps resisting multi-thousand hordes of Russian regular military every day, lol.

You forget that we have multiple sources for our news. We have Ukrainian news, for what it's worth. We have Nato reporting. We have independent journalists risking their lives in East Ukraine to give us independent news.

What do you get in Russia? State controlled news.

Our news networks in the west laugh at how Russia Today brings their "news" and mock them for it. You know in what section of the news? The showbizz section. That is how we see Russian "news".