Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Rage Racer
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andrea

Not a bad plan.
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Both of those guys check out as probable targets. But I get super squeamish when we start talking about direct action against Russian citizens. Solid ground is needed to take action against these individuals, though wikipedia seems to suggest that solid ground exists.
 
Russia captured Chernobyl Nuclear power plant.

Im wondering was there any strategic value to it or was it just a symbolic takeover since it is a piece of history?
 
German news ''Bild'' using pictures from a gas explosion from 2018 for their article saying that Russia targeted civilian buildings. There is SO much misinformation out there right now.
 

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Michael88
German news ''Bild'' using pictures from a gas explosion from 2018 for their article saying that Russia targeted civilian buildings. There is SO much misinformation out there right now.
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Though there is still footage of russian planes attacking civilian buildings.
 
Danoff
As Putin seems to be well aware, nobody is going to stop him. Nor was that really in the cards. If you were thinking that "the west" could just magically come up with a way to prevent this from happening, you were thinking wrong.

The sanctions are not designed to stop it from happening, they're designed to make it hurt. Putin wants Ukraine, and by all accounts, he will have it. Hopefully it costs him a great deal and that stops him from thinking it's a good idea to try again. Likely though, the sanctions won't even do that. As the more we isolate Russia, the less they have to lose.

The only way to really stop this from happening is direct military intervention, and that seems to be a move that's not being put on the table for Ukraine, and that's a fairly defensible position.
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I never at any time thought that they would stop it happening. Sadly.

Nor can we put troops into Ukraine, as I stated previously.

My personal issue with what has been announced is, because we are so worried about the damage done to ourselves, nothing has been announced which is actually going to hurt Putin or his cabal in any real sense at all.

As pointed out on here previously, Gazprom is apparently selling $700m of gas to the west tomorrow?

This is what I mean by, in my opinion, being impotent. And why waiting a month makes no difference, unless by some massive surprise Ukraine is still fighting then.

Can anyone please really explain the logic of the following position:

You've invaded Ukraine.
This is what we're going to do now.
If you stop invading in a month's time I wont need to make the sanctions tougher.

In my opinion, invading another country requires more serious sanctions now, not in a month's time. Maybe. If that's what we decide to do when we think about it again...
Which Putin thinks he knows we wont anyway. In my opinion.

Meanwhile, in a month's time Ukraine will effectively no longer exist.

And in a month's time we're still going to have to implement the sanctions that seem to be planned for, that I believe should have been implemented today.

I believe that we should have gone straight to the maximum intended sanctions.

I'm doubtful they will have the desired impact either. But to me they should have been automatically applied the moment Putin, you know, invaded another country.
 
sirjim73
Biden also said he will look at sanctions again in a month. The announced sanctions will achieve precisely NOTHING in that time. Even if they worked, it would take much longer than that.

So what's Plan Z going to be then.

Not that I pretend to know the answers or enough about SWIFT etc, but it seems like the West has **** all idea what to do and is basically hoping the problem will go away largely without them.

I find it crazy but am not surprised that 2 months ago, A Blinken said that Russia was going to invade and nothing of consequence seems to have been properly discussed or agreed between the US, EU, UK, let alone other parties since then.

The only impotent people I have seen today have been Biden and the other Western leaders.

The GP should already have been cancelled by now. It's not like there should even be any discussion about it!
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Back during the Russia invasion of Afghanistan, we knew how to impose sanctions that had real bite. :rolleyes:

Russian Afgan sanctions.jpg
 
dacc10
Though there is still footage of russian planes attacking civilian buildings.
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Not to mention the block of flats on the bbc news earlier with holes in it and the remnants of a missile in the play area...
 
Danoff
Both of those guys check out as probable targets. But I get super squeamish when we start talking about direct action against Russian citizens. Solid ground is needed to take action against these individuals, though wikipedia seems to suggest that solid ground exists.
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If those individuals have been sanctioned then it would be a lot easier. Those boats are literally assets in NATO/EU territory.

SestoScudo
Russia captured Chernobyl Nuclear power plant.

Im wondering was there any strategic value to it or was it just a symbolic takeover since it is a piece of history?
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It's probably a relatively strategic point that would need to be captured. Obviously it's not inhabitable long-term but it is a huge swath of land with forests and urban environments. Plenty large enough to stage and house a force for a short period of time. It's definitely an unorthodox area that could be travelled through with zero risk of civilian issues.

Edit: A general on CNN is speaking about this right now. He mentioned that Russians would want to have control of the area basically so they don't have to rely on Ukrainians being there to maintain it, and a big reason would be to eliminate the risk of sabotage that could be blamed on Russia. Basically it's no different than clearing any other piece of territory except that the maintenance required and risk of sabotage is uniquely high there. It would've been a similar operation as taking control of any other utility.
 
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Keef
If those individuals have been sanctioned then it would be a lot easier. Those boats are literally assets in NATO/EU territory.
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There's no way that Russian billionaires could function normally without at least tacit acceptance/compliance with Putin. It's a question of finding the evidence to prove it though.

As a Chelsea fan, I've long been worried that there would come a time when Abramovich would have to be severed somehow. 🤔 If Abramovich ends up on a future list, could Chelsea actually be seized?
 
I'm actually pretty surprised the Haas F1 team took the step they took. Like @Danoff mentioned, things get murky when important civilians get involved, so I'd expect most civilian business deals to remain intact outside of the sanctions of course. That's not how we want it to go. Haas removing the Russian company and colors is a pretty huge statement.
 
Basically chernobyl is the road to reach Kiev.

Russian Paratroopers advances may have failed but the Russian ground forces have been advancing pretty alarming how they are reaching Kiev.
 
Keef
I'm actually pretty surprised the Haas F1 team took the step they took. Like @Danoff mentioned, things get murky when important civilians get involved, so I'd expect most civilian business deals to remain intact outside of the sanctions of course. That's not how we want it to go. Haas removing the Russian company and colors is a pretty huge statement.
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Well, since Haas F1's title sponsor is operated by an oligarch (and his son is one of the drivers), it's probably more because the guy can't pay them right now.

Hopefully Haas learned from the Rich Energy debacle and put a substantial amount of money from the deal into their own savings.
 
Putin: Whoever tries to hinder us, and even more so, to create threats to our country, to our people, should know that Russia's response will be immediate. And it will lead you to such consequences that you have never encountered in your history

France: Bro have you seen NATO's arsenal?

www.reuters.com

France says Putin needs to understand NATO has nuclear weapons

France's foreign minister said that Russian President Vladimir Putin, when making threats about using nuclear weapons, needs to understand that NATO, too, is a nuclear alliance, but he ruled out NATO-led military intervention to defend Ukraine.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com

As much as I want to believe Putin isn't stupid enough to launch a nuclear weapon, I know he's egotistical enough to do so. I can't believe there are some Russians that think this crap is OK either. You know, threatening the ending of civilization as we know it because you support a tyrannical dictator.
 


China and Russia are only backing each other up for their own convienence. I believe one day they will turn against each other but right now their interests are aligned.

Crazy thing is when Russia just invaded Ukraine the Chinese just violated Taiwans airspace.
 
China has border disputes with pretty much every country around them. If they see Russia get away with this then they will most likely do the same thing.
 
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Veinz
China has border disputes with pretty much every country around them. If they see Russia get away with this then they will most likely do the same thing.
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They've already been doing it for years but they're much more cautious about it. They benefit from the fact that some of their smaller neighbors aren't talked about much, mainly Nepal and Bhutan. China has already encroached on their territories multiple times with reports of them building villages inside their borders, especially in the disputed areas with India. They're trying to colonize it basically. And they're building up their military and air bases near the Indian border as well. They've been planning on making such moves for several years already.
 


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Seriously for the airforce of Ukraine its bad news their air defence systems are engaging planes but air superiority and also ground attacks by planes advantage is going to Russia.

Some planes have already got destroyed before they even flew.
 
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I think most people assumed the majority of Russian advances would be in the regions most likely to join Russia with little conflict, mainly the east and south. It seems the opposite has been true. Rather than taking relatively easy territory quickly, they've pushed hard in the north.
 
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Joey D
As much as I want to believe Putin isn't stupid enough to launch a nuclear weapon, I know he's egotistical enough to do so.
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He’s stupid enough to invade Ukraine, the step to using nukes is not far away. Especially now that his armed forces are all under pressure. If NATO decides to come to Ukraine’s aid then Russia has two choices:

1. Accept defeat and limp back to the border.
2. Start a nuclear war.

Putin would never go for option 1. If NATO decides to intervene their first move better be to take him out.

Edit: no luck with Wordle today.

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Edit 2: The Russian government has warned its citizens that demonstrations against the war are illegal.
 
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Blitz24
What will they do if Putin decides he wants Georgia? Or Moldova? Or Armenia? Or Azerbaijan? I assume the same thing will happen. What about if Putin decides to go after Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia or Poland? Europe is screwed and Putin is using it to his advantage.
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Some of those are NATO members. If Russia invades them then there will almost certainly be a concerted military response, as that's the purpose for NATO existing. As far as the non-NATO members, yeah, it probably looks the same. Russia figured out that the rest of the world is not willing to risk World War III for the independence of countries that they don't have a strong mutual defence treaty with.

As much as that sucks for those countries it's probably the right decision, because it's really unclear at this point just how bananas Putin really is. Would he send nukes? Dunno. Maybe. He seems like the sort that would rather kill everyone than lose.

At this point it's very nearly a reverse trolley problem. The trolley is running towards one person, but to save them you'd have to divert the trolley towards five others. As much as it hurts knowing that person is going to die, you can't in good conscience condemn more people just to save that one. It's not NATO's fault if Ukraine falls, it's Russia's fault for invading.

I imagine missile defence production is going to be running 24/7 for the next little while for NATO members and allies though.
 

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