It should be Sainz to Red Bull, he has enough experience in F1 now and was loaned to Renault because there wasn't a seat at Red Bull free. Red Bull really don't have any excuses to not announce Sainz as Ricciardo's replacement.
Redbull have all the excuses they need.
Max and Sainz, dispite being friendly off the circuit, don’t exactly get along in the garage. There was big tension at TR before, and with Sainz being brought in to being Golden Boy’s #2, things might not necessarily go smoothly.
Sainz hasn’t exactly destroyed Hulkenberg, who is a very known quantity in the paddock. If Sainz can’t thoroughly beat Hulk, what shot does he have against Max?
Gasly is raising eyebrows. It would be a big risk to put him in the RB next to Max, but the potential payout of finding another golden boy in Pierre (still a relatively unknown quantity) is much higher than plugging in Sainz (who is a known quantity at this point).
If F1 was all about being fair, then Sainz should get get the RB seat. But it’s not like that, and especially when you’re talking about RB, I can very easily see them cutting Sainz lose and going with Gasly. Who they put in the TR then, I’m not sure, but I don’t think Sainz to RB is a given.
Edit:
7 years and no championships but can win a race here and there. He's this generation's Jackie Ickx or Gerhard Berger.
Unless Enstone are planning on pulling a rabbit out of the hat next year, it's a poor move from the looks of it. But if he needs a change of scenery, I don't suppose there are many alternatives.
Factory team might be the way to go; we all laughed at Hamilton when he went to Mercedes-Benz.
I think this is quite a reach to say Dan is this generation’s Berger because he hasn’t won a championship yet.
How many championship winning cars did Berger drive? How many championships have RB had a shot at whilst Dan has been with them.
Hakkinen was in his 7th year when he won his first title. Button was in his 9th season when he won it all!
This is F1, it’s 95% the car and being in the right team at the right time. Dan has done nothing to indicate he can’t win a championship, he’s never been given anything close to a realistic chance, so he’s never had to go into championship fighting mode.