Be that as it may, Mercedes have not really shown race winning speed on any race Sunday thus far. Better than Spain? Without a doubt. But enough to win a race?
They didn't do half bad in Malaysia. I know Alonso was out, but they weren't that far behind the Red Bulls before Hamilton started fuel saving.
Really, Monaco is all about getting track position for the final stint. Mercedes may well struggle to get in that position, but if they can work together (Like one holds up the pack whilst the other races into the distance and builds a gap) then it may work. I just can't see Rosberg doing this after Malaysia, and Hamilton wouldn't do that under any circumstances. I think Lotus have the best chance, as they seem to be able to extend their stints longer than the other teams can.
My bet is on Raikkonen. I think the race will go as follows:
Qualifying: 1) Rosberg 2) Hamilton 3) Vettel 4) Alonso 5) Webber 6) Massa 7) Raikkonen 8) Grosjean 9) Hulkenberg 10) Di Resta etc.
- After a mediocre qualifying and an average start, Kimi races his first stint to see the leaders pull away and then pit infront of him. Mercedes pit much sooner than everybody else, drop below 10th and lose all race relevance
- The extended stint allows Kimi to emerge from the pits in clean air and make good ground on the leaders.
- A good middle stint sees him get through the pack into a good 5th position behind the Red Bulls and Ferraris.
- Once again the leaders pit after complaining about the tyres.
- Meanwhile Kimi, now leading this race, keeps on going because he knows what he's doing.
- The leaders close the gap to Kimi.
- Kimi pits on the 50th lap.
- Vettel comes in on the 58th lap complaining of rear graining and emerges 5 seconds behind Kimi.
- Alonso and Webber follow suit on lap 59, with Massa pitting on lap 60.
Order now goes: Kimi, Vettel, Alonso, Webber, Massa...
Webber has a KERS failure, Massa overtakes him.
By lap 68, Vettel is right behind Kimi. It soon dawns upon young Seb that the Lotus doesn't need to pit again, and that he now has Alonso, Massa and Webber behind him, catching at a rate of 1 second per lap. Kimi races fair as usual, which at Monaco means you kindly give the overtaking driver the outside line into the chicane. After a few laps of this, Vettel gets frustrated and goes straight on at the chicane, passing Kimi in the process. He relinquishes the position on the home straight to avoid a penalty. Alonso takes his chance and passes aswell. Vettel now in 3rd.
Massa than spectacularly overtakes Vettel into Tabac on the last lap, resulting in a Kimi-Alonso-Massa podium, with Red Bull 4th and 5th. Hulkenberg finishes 6th after an awful pitstop for Di resta. Button and Perez take 7th and 8th, with Grosjean 9th and Maldonado taking his first point of the year in 10th place.
. NOPE.
