Please note, however, that actual competitive e-sport racing sims (i.e. iRacing)
already exist. While they're PC-exclusive and essentially require rather expensive peripherals to be played at any level of competitiveness, which undoubtedly limits their reach, they barely have the
same concurrent player count as Forza Horizon, and a player base that may be 1/4th (iRacing's 275k subscribers, v. FH5's
estimates of 1 mln daily players). The jury's still out on whether there is enough room for an iRacing competitor or not, too.
So, we're not talking about an untested recipe with the potential to be the next Counter-Strike, but rather one that's been used with some success by far better-established players, and toyed with by other, more direct competitors in the caRPG landscape (Gran Turismo with
GT Sport), with mixed critical and commercial success.
It's staggering to me that 275k people are willing to sign up to the iRacing EULA and TOU and pay a monthly subscription. A couple of extracts from the current document (13th March 2024):
"YOUR REAL NAME (or a variation of your name, such as your name followed by a numeral) WILL BE DISPLAYED TO OTHER USERS OF THE SIM"
"You agree that the Promoters own all copies of your Likenesses they create, all rights in those copies and anything of value obtained from their use. You understand that the Promoters may make costly arrangements based on this release and the assignment and other rights granted herein and therefore, once given, you cannot withdraw or revoke this release, assignment and other grant of rights. You hereby waive and release any claims you may have against the Promoters for any damages, costs or liabilities you (or others claiming through me) incur from the Promoters’ use of your name or Likenesses and/or the iRacing Photographs and Recordings, including but not limited to damages caused by any distortion, alteration, optical illusion or composite use, whether intentional or otherwise, that may occur in making, processing, duplicating, distributing or displaying the iRacing Photographs and Recordings and/or your name or these Likenesses."
You have to pay a monthly subscription, the in-game track and cars content is also very expensive, and as you say, you're really going to want an expensive wheel and triple screen setup if you're taking it seriously. And it's PC only, but even with all that and the absurd agreement you have to sign up to, they have 275k subscribers (I haven't checked that number, I'm taking your word for it). What that says to me is the market for a similar game that is cross-platform, can be played competitively with a controller and single screen, gives you all content at much lower cost, and doesn't have such a ridiculous agreement to sign up to, must be huge.
I'm very sceptical that FH5 has a million daily players. I just checked the 4 monthly rivals and 2 have around 105k entries, 2 around 290k. I'd expect most players of the game to want to unlock the FOMO cars, and over a month, doing a clean lap of the monthly rivals is one of the most time-efficient things you can do. It doesn't really matter, though, as MS already has FH5, but not so much a competitor to iRacing, ACC, or GT7. I see GT7 as directly competing with iRacing and ACC because, while it can be played as a carpg, it also gives full access to all cars for all players in multiplayer, making it a true e-sport at the same time as being a carpg.
Competing with your own products rather than competitor products isn't a good business plan. It's like a car maker observing that the smallest cars sell the most, and other companies make medium and large cars already, so they make 5 variants of the smallest car rather than adding medium and large cars to their range.
Another racing game that I'd say is a true e-sport, with a functional level playing field, is Trackmania. I just ran it up on an account that hasn't done any of the current campaign and ran a slow time for the first track. It gave my leaderboard position as 500k, so that's much higher than FH5's monthly rivals leaderboard player count, without any car collecting FOMO.