strategic ability, driving skills, likelihood to error, and inclination towards putting the player under pressure
That would certainly make for a more dynamic races experiences, but especially the likelihood to making errors would, if overdone, make the game more or less a lottery. It worked in Grid very well I think, but still it can be a bit random at times.
I watched some GT endurance lately, I think it was the BritishGT on Silverstone that was on, and just as I finished commenting the carnage on screen as "there's too many egos with too much money on the track right now" an interview came up with a driver who said "the driver of the Ginetta has just caused a 70.000 pounds accident because he couldn't stand being beaten fair and square by me.".
I didn't feel like watching another 2 hours of this nonsense and switched off.
What I would like to say with this is: even if you manage to capture all of what you said an put it into a game AI, what if it turns out to be like in this real life race in Silverstone? I guess the perfect AI would have to be better than real life itself. Tough call if you ask me.
Second point: I don't see anything major wrong with GT5 Arcade AI, and would be happy if it returns with some tweaking.
I'm not even sure a few gameplay decisions, like having a handicap for the human player (weight, restrictor plates, lesser tyres, whatever) and bumping the field from 12/16 to 36 or 48 opponents (yeah, I know, a man can still dream, can't he?), rewarding the player not only for 1st place finishes, etc. could drastically change the way how the AI is looked upon.
That, or cut the whole comedy and switch to rubberbanded AI. Tricky.
That's a rather tough call, and with all the experience I have with GT5 AI, it's gameplay decisions that makes the experience fall short (lack of customization of the opponent's cars/the grid, individual skills, some rather dumb breaking points, dodgy tyre choices, dodgy pit strategy).
Frankly, I haven't been more impressed by other games' bots, so it's a YMMV thing.
I'll be honest. While I do want damage on high, in GT5 it's barely implemented, so I just leave it off rather than let it make my car look ugly instead of damaged. Most likely, since it sounds like the same sort of damage build for GT6, I'll do the same thing. I race in Forza 4 with sim level damage, but that's mostly for the credits because the bots are murderous bratty tards, so it becomes a handicap and a reason to do-over rather than something that makes racing better.
In GT6 I want a steady progression through the game until those last enduros. When I beat the game to my satisfaction rather than slog through all the endurance races, then I'll race it with a "come what may" attitude. It's how I race in Arcade Mode. I use a Seasonal event to farm for credits. But I agree with you that most people want a challenge until they can't win. That would vex me too, or a game in which you had to race 99% perfectly to make first. A race I would have to do fifty times or more to beat would make me sell the game. I don't need that level of frustration.
I see the AI as part as the racing experience as well, just that it's one element of may to make a race exciting, rewarding and - fun.
As I mentioned, I watch a lot of (GT) racing, and as GT racing is dominated by gentleman drivers, there are, in some series, just too many half-wits with too deep pockets and not enough skill by far. It's a pain watching this.
Being an endurance racing fan, there are many who race to a schedule and Audi who just throws money at the races to secure a win in the end because it doesn't matter how many cars they wreck in the process of getting to the top of the podium.
I often had the feeling the AI in GT5 raced to a schedule, they usually were much more kind to their tyres than I was. But this didn't pay off, because the races were either too short or the tyre wear was not quite balanced.
What I'm trying to say: "real life" doesn't give one a good racing experience. Staging races by using rubberbanded AI does, and it can accomplish a "one size fits all approach". But I'm not saying the gameplay of GT can be tweaked to make (short) races much more "fun".
I was seriously surprised so many struggled with the original expert seasonals, because all it took was some dedication and basic racing skills. And I'm not even racing competitive anymore, just for fun and laughs. An AI that would challenge me (and remember, I'm neither that fast nor arrogant) would put off the majority of your everyday GT player. And these are those who pay the bills at the end of the day.