North Korea, Sanctions, and Kim Jong-un

[Imari]

However I never really got why Kim goes to SUCH extreme lengths to antagonise the rest of the world, he has a really good thing going there for himself (basically a god) so why poke the stick just that too far?

Because he's reliant on the rest of the world believing that he's fast and loose enough that he might just do something crazy if they respond to his antagonism.

It's pretty hard to figure out an absolutely optimal strategy for NK, given that Kim is who he is and the things he won't accept. There are too many moving parts. But it's to his advantage to keep up the unhinged dictator image. It may be a happy coincidence that it happens to be the sort of ruler he is or it may be in part a ruse, but it certainly gives everyone else pause when they think about how to deal with NK.

So everyone is worried about the nuclear weapons. Some say they may drop sarin on people instead.

http://www.atimes.com/article/japan-says-north-korea-may-missiles-loaded-sarin-gas/

For those who don't know. Sarin is a gas which shuts down your nervous system eventually rendering you conscious but unable to breathe. Aka a horrid way to die.

To be fair, nukes are probably not at the top of the scary things list. The big ones are orders of magnitude beyond anything conventional, but you can do a hell of a lot of damage with modern HE and thermobaric weaponry. And as you say, then there's the chemical and biological stuff which can be incredibly deadly also. The nerve agents are scary as 🤬, but even simple stuff like chlorine, phosgene and cyanide can do an awful lot of damage and are honestly not even moderately difficult to make for any country with any sort of industry at all.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

The US plans a pre-emptive strike if NK test a nuke

Which is a mistake. Next week marks what would be the 105th birthday of Kim Il-sung, and the North likes to celebrate with a show of military might. They're extremely predictable like that, and it's not so much an act of aggression as it is posturing for effect. It's otherwise harmless, if a nuclear weapons test can be called harmless.

Speaking of the North, Pyongyang have said that they will go to war if the United States does anything provocative:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-...s-it-will-go-to-war-if-us-provokes-it/8445120

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Japan is taking things pretty seriously - coming up with a plan to evacuate 60,000 citizens from South Korea if the situation escalates:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-...iscusses-how-to-evacuate-its-citizens/8445202

 

[PeterJB]

Any conflict will destroy foreign relations with Japan and the US, cause they'll be taking the hits for something America started.

 

[doblocruiser]

I am afraid that for many people lives will change drastically over the coming days.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Speaking of the North, Pyongyang have said that they will go to war if the United States does anything provocative:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-...s-it-will-go-to-war-if-us-provokes-it/8445120

Given that NK are always about to "go to war" over something and that every foreign act is spun as some kind of provocation I'd normally take a statement like that with a large pinch of salt. Today, not so sure.

 

[Imari]

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-calling-north-korea-crazy-understand-motives

Another similar article:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-14/nothing-unpredictable-about-dangerous-north-korea/8444778

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Today, not so sure.

The real problem is that the North is not a threat to the United States. Not yet. And until such time as they are, the real question is what they'll do if things go past the point of no return. Sure, the United States will move to stop Kim's nuclear strike capabilities, but I've heard some estimates suggest that the North could hit Seoul with fifty thousand mortar strikes within an hour of declaring war. That's where Trump's diplomacy-by-surprise becomes a liability. There are eighteen million innocent people living in Seoul; it's one of the largest cities in the world. And while Kim might not be able to reach the United States, he can hit them. Removing Kim from power would be small comfort if his response was to attack the first thing that moved with everything he had.

 

[Dotini]

The real problem is that the North is not a threat to the United States. Not yet. And until such time as they are, the real question is what they'll do if things go past the point of no return. Sure, the United States will move to stop Kim's nuclear strike capabilities, but I've heard some estimates suggest that the North could hit Seoul with fifty thousand mortar strikes within an hour of declaring war. That's where Trump's diplomacy-by-surprise becomes a liability. There are eighteen million innocent people living in Seoul; it's one of the largest cities in the world. And while Kim might not be able to reach the United States, he can hit them. Removing Kim from power would be small comfort if his response was to attack the first thing that moved with everything he had.

There are a lot of contradictory rumors out there.

One of them is South Korea would have to sign off on a US strike on North Korea, assessing the risks are worth taking.

Another rumor is that the US strike will occur preemptively when the US military command decides that a North Korean nuclear underground test is judged to be imminent. There will be no waiting for the test to actually take place. Right now a US destroyer with cruise missiles is within 300 miles of the NK nuke test site.

More rumors:
- Chinese negotiators are in Pyongyang trying to get Kim to climb down.
- Another Chinese army group has shown up on the Yalu, this one with defensive and offensive missiles.
- China is turning back NK coal shipments to China.
- Pyongyang is under partial evacuation.
- NK artillery is moving to forward firing positions in the DMZ.
- Japan is preparing evacuation plans.
- Japan will assist in the attack.
- Japan will obstruct the attack.
- Mike Pence will be in Seoul on Sunday.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

There are a lot of contradictory rumors out there.

Which is why I prefer actual analysis:

Victor Cha, long-time North Korea watcher, American academic and author of "The Impossible State: North Korea, Past and Future" [...] has said the North could fire as many as 500,000 rounds of artillery on Seoul within the first hour of a conflict.

 

[Dotini]

Rumor: Moments ago Voice of America reporter Steve Herman stated that according to US government and other sources, North Korea has "apparently placed a nuclear device in a tunnel and it could be detonated Saturday AM Korea time."

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Who are these people leaking details ti the media? They're bad people. They're very bad people.

 

[Dotini]

Who are these people leaking details ti the media? They're bad people. They're very bad people.

 

[huskeR32]

One of them is South Korea would have to sign off on a US strike on North Korea, assessing the risks are worth taking.

Are you particularly confident that the man who hands Merkel fake invoices for NATO "debt" would allow objections out of Seoul to stop him if he decides that he needs to hit Pyongyang?

 

[Dotini]

Are you particularly confident that the man who hands Merkel fake invoices for NATO "debt" would allow objections out of Seoul to stop him if he decides that he needs to hit Pyongyang?

Short answer:
Not particularly.

Long answer:
I'm not confident that such an agreement is in place, and who the signatories are.
Neither am I confident that any signatory would abide by such an agreement if national security was an overriding consideration.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Rumor: Moments ago Voice of America reporter Steve Herman stated that according to US government and other sources, North Korea has "apparently placed a nuclear device in a tunnel and it could be detonated Saturday AM Korea time."

Not really a surprise (although "tunnel" is a slightly disingenuous way to describe a test chamber), it'll be for the boss's birthday as we already know.

What exactly Trump will blow up in reliation (in someone else's argument) is hard to say. The test site will be obliterated... will he go for NK's anti-SK artillery capacity?

 

[Dotini]

will he go for NK's anti-SK artillery capacity?

Nice idea, but probably not achievable in a timely fashion. It'd be like attacking 100 Tora Bora's; ineffective without infantry. To take infantry into the DMZ sounds like a prodigious, lengthy and lamentable task. It has not worked well in the past.

 

[Dennisch]

Is it to early to ask all the South Koreans to have as many cameras rolling as possible from now on?

 

[Touring Mars]

That fact that North Korea cannot significantly attack the US is very important - all North Korea can do is threaten to lash out at some other nation and hope that the US are blamed - but that's not going to happen. Attacking anyone other than the US would result in the certain destruction of the DPRK, so why would they do it? The only way the DPRK can ensure their survival is if the US can be convinced not to attack, and that means disarming or convincing the US that they face unacceptable losses if they attack the DPRK - but the DPRK can't make good on that threat (not yet anyway).

So, the DPRK might decide that the best way of detering the US is to lash out at someone who could attack the US - namely Russia or China. But where does that put the DPRK? Threatening to or actually dropping a nuclear bomb on China in the hope that they might retaliate against the USA - who would return fire and wipe them out? It's not going to happen. No major nuclear power has the appetite for a nuclear war with the USA, thus leaving the DPRK with no credible retaliatory options to a US strike other than to either attack an entirely innocent party (thus guaranteeing the DPRK's own destruction) or bowing to international/US pressure.

Kim is on a hair trigger and is threatening nuclear war - the question must be then, what does the little dictator consider aggressive enough or enough of a provokation in order to justify to himself the slaughter of millions of innocent people? A military assault, harsher sanctions, a high level defection? If Kim really is prepared to attack Japan, Seoul or anyone else for that matter because Kim doesn't think the DPRK is being treated with enough respect, then should the world be prepared to just sit back and watch as he develops enough nuclear warheads to end life on Earth as we know it? The Kim dynasty's flagrant disregard for the wellbeing of their own people is a worrying indicator.

-

On a related note, what does the US/Trump stand to gain from squaring up to the DPRK? It would certainly send a pretty strong message to Iran and other would-be nuclear adversaries that the US is no longer prepared to countenance a future where nuclear proliferation can proceed unchecked. This is a major point that I believe the nuclear superpowers (US, China, Russia and the UK) probably all agree on - they would rather maintain the status quo (a small number of mutually-restrained nuclear 'chiefs') than face the prospect of unlimited nuclear proliferation, with rogue states able to build and sell nuclear devices to whoever wants them. Nuclear weapons stop wars from happening if retaliation is an option - but it is only an option when one considers nation states, and not smaller groups. A nuclear-armed terrorist organisation could/would wreak havoc and that is the major danger of allowing a rogue state to proceed with nuclear proliferation.

 

[Sanji Himura]

Not really a surprise (although "tunnel" is a slightly disingenuous way to describe a test chamber), it'll be for the boss's birthday as we already know.

Close. Kim Jong Sung's birthday is tomorrow. Still a perfect excuse for a nuclear test if I dare say so myself.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Close. Kim Jong Sung's birthday is tomorrow. Still a perfect excuse for a nuclear test if I dare say so myself.

Less close than I was

You're thinking of the Great Leader, Kim Il-Sung who is still the boss, dead or not.. Tomorrow is his birthday, the NK "Day of the Sun" (as in il-sung, become the sun). That's the reason everyone's expecting NK to have their usual birthday explosion.

 

[Sanji Himura]

@TenEightyOne A minor technicality, I'm sure...

 

[ExigeEvan]

Close. Kim Jong Sung's birthday is tomorrow. Still a perfect excuse for a nuclear test if I dare say so myself.

Or a massive non nuclear explosion made to look like one...

 

[Dennisch]

Or a massive non nuclear explosion made to look like one...

Or a premature detonation.

"Great Leader, this is the device that will stir up emotions around the globe, and especially the United Sta..."

 

[Peter.]

"Sorry Great Leader, this doesn't always happen. It's been a while."

 

[prisonermonkeys]

China is trying to be the voice of reason, calling for calm and warning that a war could be catastrophic for everyone involved. They have also apparently put forward a suggestion to Pyongyang, offering protection if they suspend their nuclear programme.

I think you missed the point I was trying to make - Trump repeatedly condemned people for leaking information to the media when it brought negative press to the White House. But here, the leaks suit his agenda, so he has kept quiet.

 

[Dan]

Is it to early to ask all the South Koreans to have as many cameras rolling as possible from now on?

"In other news, sales of GoPro cameras has reached an all-time high in South Korea."

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Is it to early to ask all the South Koreans to have as many cameras rolling as possible from now on?

"In other news, sales of GoPro cameras has reached an all-time high in South Korea."

I know it's a joke, but it wouldn't help, the locations that would most likely be hit in a military strike would be much too far for South Korean citizens to be aware of. So we'll just have to rely on satellite images/videos

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Attacking anyone other than the US would result in the certain destruction of the DPRK, so why would they do it?

Because they believe they can win. Even if thd upper echelons of the North Korean high command know that it's a lost cause, they have convinced the people that they and they alone are resolute in standing up to the United States. To back down would be humiliating; to back down on the eve of the celebrations surrounding Il-sung's birthday would potentially be catastrophic. In the worst-case scenario, it could usher in a regime change with a hardliner even more unhinged that Kim.

The only way the DPRK can ensure their survival is if the US can be convinced not to attack, and that means disarming or convincing the US that they face unacceptable losses if they attack the DPRK

Both Trump and Kim suffer the same problem: they can't be seen as the one to back down. Trump did a foreign policy backflip, going from pursuing an isolationist agenda to showing a willingness to respond swiftly with military action. Backing down now would be an embarrassment and the administration would be afraid of emboldening others.

That said, the immediate consequences of Trump backing down are less dire than if Kim did, but the long-term consequences are worse - although it would buy time to save the situation.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

So far, the North hasn't blown anything up. Yet. They have, however, paraded "a new model of intercontinental ballistic missile" through the streets of Pyongyang:

http://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2017-04-15/north-korea-parades-missiles-threatens-us/8446050

Analysts have confirmed that the models are indeed new, but have pointed out that the North has a habit of showing off prototypes long before they're ready. More concerning is the way they're trying to develop a missile that can be fired from a submarine.