[POLL] United States Presidential Elections 2016

[Dotini]

Trump still hasn't ruled out third party, right?
If they screw him he can screw them right back.

I don't think he has ruled it out. But it is expensive - even for a billionaire - and much less likely to win than being in one of the two major parties. He is not primarily looking to screw the Republican establishment, but to make America great again. With a 3rd party effort, he will win only sour grapes, and the more unified (for a change) Demos would likely win the presidency.

Bonus: Even if Trump wins, he is unlikely to avert the death of Western civilization.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/19/pat-buchanan-even-if-trump-wins-the-west-is-doomed/

 

[Danoff]

Bonus: Even if Trump wins, he is unlikely to avert the death of Western civilization.
http://dailycaller.com/2016/04/19/pat-buchanan-even-if-trump-wins-the-west-is-doomed/

...because Christianity is what holds 'Merica together.

 

[Dotini]

...because Christianity is what holds 'Merica together.

Pat would say culture.

 

[Joel]

If the kids' ultimate income is correlated with the parents' ultimate income such that the kids benefit from the parents ultimate status, that still really makes the same point I already mentioned.

It doesn't make the same point, the graph and study make the opposite point. The graph is displaying income elasticity, the degree to which the child's income depends on/is tied to their parents' income, or the "persistence" of income. A lower score means the child's income is more independent of parent's income.

The study finds that (as mentioned in the Cato Institute piece) the mobility of the middle 3 quartiles is quite similar in all countries surveyed. The biggest difference is that getting out of the bottom quintile is significantly less likely in the US than in the other countries surveyed. It's about as likely for a 30th percentile construction worker to have a kid that goes on to be a 70th percentile electrician, but going from minimum wage to a 30th percentile construction job is far less likely in the US than the rest of the countries. The same applies at the top of the income scale, in the US a child born into the top quintile is less likely to fall out.

Playing off the idea of rags to riches, going from a 10 year old Toyota Corolla to a new Acura happens as often in the US as the other countries. The challenge is going from a bike to a 10 year old Corolla, that's a much more difficult jump in the US than the other places surveyed. I don't have data at hand but my hunch is that when I think of the lifestyle of an American in the 3 middle quintiles it isn't significantly different to that of a 3 middle quintile Canadian or Swede. You will have or comfortably rent a house/apartment, a car, won't worry about food security, will have access to quality health care, and your children will be in good schools. Basic needs are all met which is the most important thing.

The difference is that in the lowest quintile the bottom doesn't fall out in the same way. A child born in the 10th percentile in Canada or the Nordic countries has access to schooling and health care that's comparable to what a child born in an 80th percentile household has access to.

 

[Danoff]

It doesn't make the same point, the graph and study make the opposite point. The graph is displaying income elasticity, the degree to which the child's income depends on/is tied to their parents' income, or the "persistence" of income. A lower score means the child's income is more independent of parent's income.

Ok, yea. I think you're probably right. I that case its a fairly useless metric because its meaning has to be coupled with and is almost entirely determined by intragenerational mobility.

The study finds that (as mentioned in the Cato Institute piece) the mobility of the middle 3 quartiles is quite similar in all countries surveyed. The biggest difference is that getting out of the bottom quintile is significantly less likely in the US than in the other countries surveyed.

Based on what?

It's about as likely for a 30th percentile construction worker to have a kid that goes on to be a 70th percentile electrician, but going from minimum wage to a 30th percentile construction job is far less likely in the US than the rest of the countries. The same applies at the top of the income scale, in the US a child born into the top quintile is less likely to fall out.

You can't draw those conclusions from intergenerational mobility no matter how you control for age. Not "falling out" implies low intragenerational mobility.

Playing off the idea of rags to riches, going from a 10 year old Toyota Corolla to a new Acura happens as often in the US as the other countries. The challenge is going from a bike to a 10 year old Corolla, that's a much more difficult jump in the US than the other places surveyed.

Based on what?

Edit:

Reading the report some more points out another variable they shouldn't be controlling for - variance in income. The entire analysis shouldn't be done against quintiles because quintiles aren't equal across countries. For example, in Soviet Russia you may have been able to transition from the lowest quintile to the highest quintile by growing a couple of potatoes in secret.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Sanders wins majority of NY counties despite Clinton victory

 

[squadops]

Pat would say culture.

Mike Savage used to say something like 'borders, culture, and language' It's a common conservative value and if the culture is Christian then so be it.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Sanders wins majority of NY counties despite Clinton victory

Bernie would be a shoo-in if that had any relevance whatsoever to the outcome.

 

[squadops]

Bernie would be a shoo-in if that had any relevance whatsoever to the outcome.

It's the sign of the failing democracy

 

[Dotini]

Mike Savage used to say something like 'borders, culture, and language' It's a common conservative value and if the culture is Christian then so be it.

I feel, perhaps mistakenly, that American culture has always been more than just Christian. We were settled by some folks Old Europe Christians considered outcast, apostate, anathema, heretical and condemned to outer darkness. And we have always had a population that has included Jews, Mormons, Chinese moon worshippers, animists from Africa and home-brewed atheists. We do not have a state or national religion. Nor should we countenance something like sharia which is tantamount to such.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Bernie would be a shoo-in if that had any relevance whatsoever to the outcome.

It was trending so I thought I would share it.

 

[squadops]

I feel, perhaps mistakenly, that American culture has always been more than just Christian.

You're not mistaken, I should have said 'part of', one thing is for sure, we do have an identity that is our own and we want to keep that, it automatically excludes a national religion(it's even in our laws).

 

[dxm8975]

In New York? Seriously?

Yes I did read Trump won in New York primary against other candidates from among Republican party.

I feel, perhaps mistakenly, that American culture has always been more than just Christian. We were settled by some folks Old Europe Christians considered outcast, apostate, anathema, heretical and condemned to outer darkness. And we have always had a population that has included Jews, Mormons, Chinese moon worshippers, animists from Africa and home-brewed atheists. We do not have a state or national religion. Nor should we countenance something like sharia which is tantamount to such.

Yeah I feel the same way - American culture is somewhat more "mixed" by comparison to a majority of European countries in terms of the racial, cultural and religious backgrounds of those citizens whose ancestors settled as a result of being thrown out by the mainstream society / social religious trend of those European nations to believe in the same sect / belong to the same communion as the mainstream culture existent there, or from other parts of the world outside Europe for some reason(blacks, for instance), and nowadays they always welcome people with different cultural traits from various parts of the world as the immigrants who wish to have a decent life in the country. So I think in that aspect it's hard to define Christian is a "dominant" religion in US as America is sort of more "open" rather than being "conservative".

I guess the problem with Trump and his presidency is that he's just going to set up such "policies" to ostracize those people with particular cultural characteristics as the "heretic" for political safety, which comes at odds with what America had been about and what made the US an attractive nation for immigrants for it being more tolerant to accept diversity in the country - not to mention that he's totally oblivious of diplomatic matters and the policies of other countries America has to interact with at the moment and in the years to come after he becomes a president.

 

[TenEightyOne]

Yes I did read Trump won in New York primary against other candidates from among Republican party.

I was questioning how your flabber was apparently gasted by Trump and Clinton winning in their home state...

 

[Sanji Himura]

I was questioning how your flabber was apparently gasted by Trump and Clinton winning in their home state...

Let's be honest. Clinton is NOT from New York. She was born in Illinois.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Oh, I enjoy seeing Hillary hounded and put through the wringer. I only wish Bernie and the facebookers would have done better.

That's every election cycle the young voters who supposedly want change (because it's cool or whatever) end up dropping the ball. Or never even got the ball to drop. The problem is most young "voters" jump on an election cycle bandwagon in my eyes once it's too late. Or jump on it but never actually do anything about it, like register to vote. Maybe by the time there as old as the people voting for Hillary, guys like Bernie or Ron Paul or many others will start winning. Or not.i

It's the sign of the failing democracy

Not sure if serious, but if it's a sign it's no more then the stuff that I've said and posted on about, which has been going on for decades. Gerrymandering isn't anything new, and thus you can easily win the most counties, but if they hold less delegates due to density of people, then as @Johnnypenso said doesn't mean anything.

 

[squadops]

Not sure if serious

mustafur
so basically what @squadops is saying is a failed democracy is ok as long as the person you don't want in doesn't get the vote.

What are you talking about, the United States of America is not a democracy so how could it be a failing one?

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

So it wasn't of serious note just to be equally abrasive or satirical as mustafur.

Fair enough.

 

[squadops]

Not exactly, it was just a joke. It is true however that the link @R1600Turbo posted could lead people to believe we need some sort of voting reform because our system is not democratic and I was disagreeing with that notion.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Not exactly, it was just a joke. It is true however that the link @R1600Turbo posted could lead people to believe we need some sort of voting reform because our system is not democratic and I was disagreeing with that notion.

Yeah like I said, not sure if serious, as in I'm pretty sure you're joking but I'll ask anyways so you don't think I'm not taking you serious. I agree as well I think some of the games of gerrymandering are stupid, but overall if a more populated region votes for candidate A and is 3 times larger in density, than the four surrounding counties put together who voted candidate B...clearly a popularity was won by candidate A.

It's when those parties start purposely messing with voting districts to encompass a larger population that is in favor of them based on a number of reason, that I start to see it as a failure. When it should just be an agreed upon system across the board if it were possible. Even then people would still complain their vote doesn't count because of the area they live in.

 

[Sanji Himura]

Hillary got some help in Virginia as Governor Terry McAuliffe just blanket restored voting rights to over 200,000 felons, overriding the Virginia legislature in the process.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/23/u...-virginia-voting-rights-convicted-felons.html

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Hillary got some help in Virginia as Governor Terry McAuliffe just blanket restored voting rights to over 200,000 felons, overriding the Virginia legislature in the process.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/23/u...-virginia-voting-rights-convicted-felons.html

That's not possible why would democrats or DNC reps do such a thing, when it's quite obvious she's going to win? NYT is a group of liars!


post is sarcastic...told you so for those who still find it hard to believe DNC and dem establishment isn't fully supporting Hillary in this "fair" race.

 

[Johnnypenso]

Hillary got some help in Virginia as Governor Terry McAuliffe just blanket restored voting rights to over 200,000 felons, overriding the Virginia legislature in the process.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/23/u...-virginia-voting-rights-convicted-felons.html

Hope it leads to a recall vote and they turf him out.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Hope it leads to a recall vote and they turf him out.

It'd be nice that a Clinton sidekick would get such karma after such a twisted move, but we know it wont happen, just like Clinton wont have anything seriously put against her in the FBI case.

 

[squadops]

That's not possible why would democrats or DNC reps do such a thing, when it's quite obvious she's going to win? NYT is a group of liars!

He's doing it for an advantage in the general election not the primary.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

He's doing it for an advantage in the general election not the primary.

Either way such a move should face a reversal on a federal level, I feel this is a murky area of state laws vs federal.

And not just the ones of democrats but the recent ones for Republicans too.

 

[Pupik]

Hope it leads to a recall vote and they turf him out.

How do you know they weren't felons who didn't pay their taxes or involved in gun possession crimes? Or involved with drugs and bootlegging?

They've paid their debts to society (well, hopefully).

 

[Johnnypenso]

How do you know they weren't felons who didn't pay their taxes or involved in gun possession crimes? Or involved with drugs and bootlegging?

They've paid their debts to society (well, hopefully).

I don't and neither do you. What I do know is that he overturned 150 year old legislation with the stroke of a pen right before a national election without any vote taking place in either house. On an issue like this, IMO, that's easily worth of recall.

 

[TenEightyOne]

How do you know they weren't felons who didn't pay their taxes or involved in gun possession crimes? Or involved with drugs and bootlegging?

They've paid their debts to society (well, hopefully).

I'd have to agree. It's not people who are still serving time who are allowed to vote (unless I misunderstood). People who have served their time shouldn't be barred from voting - I find it incredible that they ever were.

 

[squadops]

Post Civil War constitutional amendment right? As in, when big government came into play(oh no, no more state's rights )