[POLL] United States Presidential Elections 2016

[mustafur]

Don't want to jinx it, but Bernie is leading Michigan with 20% of the vote counted by 4 points, if he can win there then Florida and Illinois is looking good.

Edit: 5 Points at nearly 50% of vote.

 

[Biggles]

Which is all the more strange why these idiots from the DNC and RNC don't shut the heck up and back their off-brand candidate, just cause it's not establishment and running by the books as they deem it. Sad truth is GOP is going to get a non-establishment candidate in Trump, and people seem to want off brand this time around thus Clinton will struggle, and more so due to the bs baggage she brings and is trying to lie and hide.

Hate or love Trump, his baggage is on full display, hell he even welcomes it, and that seems to be more or less why America will back him over her. If the establishment got behind Bernie they could stop this, but they rather shoot themselves in the foot as usual, same with the GOP.

The difference between Trump & Sanders as "off-brand" candidates is that Sanders represents the ideological wing of the Democratic party, while Trump represents the illogical wing of the Republican party. The equivalent of Sanders in the GOP would be Cruz rather than Trump: fiscally conservative, socially conservative, evangelical, pro-life, tea party. The battle in the GOP had been shaping up to be between the status quo moderates & the "true conservatives". Trump has injected an unanticipated wrinkle into this.

 

[mustafur]

Bernie Sanders Wins Michigan

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

The difference between Trump & Sanders as "off-brand" candidates is that Sanders represents the ideological wing of the Democratic party, while Trump represents the illogical wing of the Republican party. The equivalent of Sanders in the GOP would be Cruz rather than Trump: fiscally conservative, socially conservative, evangelical, pro-life, tea party. The battle in the GOP had been shaping up to be between the status quo moderates & the "true conservatives". Trump has injected an unanticipated wrinkle into this.

I don't see how, clearly Sanders isn't the ideologue of the party. Cause the brand they backed and still back with a great majority is Hillary, only the open minded are undermining the party and staging a small coup. Which if it were to continue could fracture the party as it did the republicans, wishful thinking of course. Cruz would be the ideal neo-con GOP of today which claims to be one thing (like democrats with the whole Progressive yet Moderate bull) but isn't. Sanders isn't anything like that really, he has old world democratic views that aren't really much around today. Not fully similar but close to how perhaps Ron Paul could have been viewed on his brand of old world conservative views that contributed to his overall libertarian views.

Bernie Sanders Wins Michigan

1 for LMS, 1 for mustafur. I'm keeping tally.

As for why she isn't taking a major win here...probably because of her stupid comments on the big hot topics of that state. Good on you Hillary, I hope you keep making an ass of yourself and maybe people will wake up enough and give it to Bernie.

 

[dylansan]

Bernie Sanders Wins Michigan

Huge upset as well. 538's Nate Silver says it's the biggest polling prediction failure in presidential election history.

 

[mustafur]

Looks like polling is starting to be less relevant, the general consensus is, because Bernie is bringing in soo much independent voters, its falling outside the view of likely democrat voters that the polls go by.

This makes the accuracy strong only in Closed Primarys as everyone who votes has to be a democrat member.

Out of the big states(over 100 delegates) coming up for Sanders it's looking like this:

Florida - Closed Primary
Illinois - Open Primary
Ohio - Mixed Open Primary
North Carolina - Mixed Closed Primary

looking at this Bernie has to win Illinois and Ohio and Keep it close as possible at Florida.

Demographics wise, Florida is looking okay for him but the closed Primary will hurt him big time, if he wins this combined with Illinois and Ohio, I would have him favourite easily to win the pledged Delegate count as these are all big states which will eliminate electability doubt from undecided voters.

North Carolina I would give him a 0.1% chance of winning.

after Florida and North Carolina are out of the way, the next state that doesn't look favourable going by demographics is Maryland but there is 11 States in between, that are winnable demographics wise in between.

 

[CodeRedR51]

Looks like polling is starting to be less relevant, the general consensus is, because Bernie is bringing in soo much independent voters, its falling outside the view of likely democrat voters that the polls go by.

I agree. Media had him down 20% on Clinton for Michigan.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Looks like polling is starting to be less relevant, the general consensus is, because Bernie is bringing in soo much independent voters, its falling outside the view of likely democrat voters that the polls go by.

This makes the accuracy strong only in Closed Primarys as everyone who votes has to be a democrat member.

Out of the big states(over 100 delegates) coming up for Sanders it's looking like this:

Florida - Closed Primary
Illinois - Open Primary
Ohio - Mixed Open Primary
North Carolina - Mixed Closed Primary

looking at this Bernie has to win Illinois and Ohio and Keep it close as possible at Florida.

Demographics wise, Florida is looking okay for him but the closed Primary will hurt him big time, if he wins this combined with Illinois and Ohio, I would have him favourite easily to win the pledged Delegate count as these are all big states which will eliminate electability doubt from undecided voters.

North Carolina I would give him a 0.1% chance of winning.

after Florida and North Carolina are out of the way, the next state that doesn't look favourable going by demographics is Maryland but there is 11 States in between, that are winnable demographics wise in between.

The top sentence is all I was trying to get us to agree on in the first place. That polling can fail and when using sites that collectively take polls (as we both did) and sum them or average them, you miss a ton of error.

 

[mustafur]

The top sentence is all I was trying to get us to agree on in the first place. That polling can fail and when using sites that collectively take polls (as we both did) and sum them or average them, you miss a ton of error.

Since then I've done some more research, polls are basically useless on the smaller states(as they generally have a massive lack of polling in the first place) and Open Primarys for reasons above.

Now forget what the news are saying adding Hillary Super delegate count to her pledged as these don't count for the amount needed to reach nomination.

As it stands right now it looks like this from actual delegates that are confirmed pledged.

Clinton: 762
Sanders: 552

Needed for nomination: 2383

Keep in mind we are still a bit away from half way, and it's still possible for either candidate to win just purely from pledged Delegates.

And there is still plenty of Super delegates who still haven't endorsed a candidate.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Since then I've done some more research, polls are basically useless on the smaller states(as they generally have a massive lack of polling in the first place) and Open Primarys for reasons above.

Now forget what the news are saying adding Hillary Super delegate count to her pledged as these don't count for the amount needed to reach nomination.

As it stands right now it looks like this from actual delegates that are confirmed pledged.

Clinton: 762
Sanders: 552

Needed for nomination: 2383

Keep in mind we are still a bit away from half way, and it's still possible for either candidate to win just purely from pledged Delegates.

And there is still plenty of Super delegates who still haven't endorsed a candidate.

Well super delegates if I remember correctly can switch support as well. The biggest issue is the major players in the DNC not wanting to back or even acknowledge Sanders.

 

[mustafur]

Well super delegates if I remember correctly can switch support as well. The biggest issue is the major players in the DNC not wanting to back or even acknowledge Sanders.

The good thing is there is History of them changing sides when one candidate is leading in pledged delegates, it happened with Obama in 2008.

However Obama is very establishment so I would give it half at best.

The big amount of undecided I would say are probably loyal to the leading pledged delegate count and are not favouring anyone for a better position.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

The good thing is there is History of them changing sides when one candidate is leading in pledged delegates, it happened with Obama in 2008.

However Obama is very establishment so I would give it half at best.

The big amount of undecided I would say are probably loyal to the leading pledged delegate count and are not favouring anyone for a better position.

Well unless the small coup turns into a big one, I still feel it's Hillary's to lose by some margin even with this shake up as you explained the larger states that run a closed primary aren't going to be easy for Sanders. But this should be a wake up call to the DNC, open primaries sever a purpose, to show a more wide spread voter base that isn't so party centrist. It also probably helps confirm polls (ironic) that Bernie is by and large the better pick to win against any Republican nominee.

 

[GTPorsche]

The problem is the DNC doesn't want to support a candidate that's been independent for his career.

 

[dylansan]

The problem is the DNC doesn't want to support a candidate that's been independent for his career.

They also don't want to alienate their base and hand the presidency to Trump.

 

[Johnnypenso]

 

[Sanji Himura]

Carly Fiorina endorses Ted Cruz. OP Updated with that and the delegate counts.

 

[Swagger897]

How is this any different than this:
liveleak.com/view?i=1d1_1456945821&comments=1


I find neither funny, btw..

 

[Harry6784]

 

[GTPorsche]

Had no idea divorce had a place in politics.

 

[Johnnypenso]

How is this any different than this:

Embedded media from this media site is no longer available

I find neither funny, btw..

Dramatically different to me because I can't see yours. In quoting it I can see it's from LL and for some reason, LL links don't show up on my end, even when I post them myself.

 

[CodeRedR51]

I think we should keep "funny" photos out of this thread really. That goes for all candidates.

 

[TenEightyOne]

I think we should keep "funny" photos out of this thread really. That goes for all candidates.

Those quote marks sum it up perfectly.

 

[dylansan]

I'm not going to pretend to be unbiased, but this was Hillary during the debate tonight:

removed

Edit:

Probably should have read the posts above mine first... Still, Hillary really did a terrible job during the debate.

 

[GTPorsche]

A B-24 Liberator in the wrong place at the wrong time?

 

[dylansan]

Trying to drop some bombs on Sanders but getting completely shot down.

 

[GTPorsche]

So, in other words, she got bombed instead?

 

[dylansan]

She's throwing everything she's got at him, and his responses have, in my opinion, deligitimized all of her attacks and made her look like an even bigger liar than the polls already indicate.

 

[Biggles]

I don't see how, clearly Sanders isn't the ideologue of the party. Cause the brand they backed and still back with a great majority is Hillary, only the open minded are undermining the party and staging a small coup. Which if it were to continue could fracture the party as it did the republicans, wishful thinking of course.

The Democratic establishment isn't ideologically driven - it's more centrist, like Clinton. The Democratic base in the primaries always pushes the party to adopt more left-wing positions but this is generally opposed by the party establishment which worries about having an "unelectable" candidate in the GE - like McGovern, who lost in a landslide to Nixon '72. The Clinton/Sanders contest is not an unusual one at the primary stage, but the amount of success Sanders has been receiving against such a strongly supported establishment candidate as Clinton is unusual.

On the GOP side, the establishment candidates were Bush, Rubio & Kasich. Cruz had always been perceived as the extremist Tea Party candidate. As the establishment candidates have failed to get any traction, Cruz has emerged as a more acceptable (barely) alternative to Trump. The GOP establishment is in a far worse pickle than the Democrats as they are faced the double prospect of an ideologically extreme & possibly unelectable candidate in Cruz, or Trump, who isn't really espousing traditional Republican positions at all.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

The Democratic establishment isn't ideologically driven - it's more centrist, like Clinton. The Democratic base in the primaries always pushes the party to adopt more left-wing positions but this is generally opposed by the party establishment which worries about having an "unelectable" candidate in the GE - like McGovern, who lost in a landslide to Nixon '72. The Clinton/Sanders contest is not an unusual one at the primary stage, but the amount of success Sanders has been receiving against such a strongly supported establishment candidate as Clinton is unusual.

No one said it was ideologically driven, but rather they have an idea of who they want to represent them based on numerous thing and that status quo that Hillary brings is what they want, Sanders isn't such hence not being ideal.

As for the last part, hence why I keep saying the Party is full of idiots and will probably face being fractured sooner or later because of it, just like the GOP back in 08.

On the GOP side, the establishment candidates were Bush, Rubio & Kasich. Cruz had always been perceived as the extremist Tea Party candidate. As the establishment candidates have failed to get any traction, Cruz has emerged as a more acceptable (barely) alternative to Trump. The GOP establishment is in a far worse pickle than the Democrats as they are faced the double prospect of an ideologically extreme & possibly unelectable candidate in Cruz, or Trump, who isn't really espousing traditional Republican positions at all.

Yeah that was before party was fractured and then reinvented after the Romney failure. If anything they'd be happy to have Rubio or Cruz, since both have neo-con leaning that fit into the image the GOP/RNC would like to show on a national stage. Trump isn't doing so cause just like Sanders is using it as a stage, they both realize that running the ideals they are in an establishment setting is difficult enough, even more so as just running independent which is a much bigger hill to climb. If anything Cruz would be a literal godsend to them if he got the necessary delegates over Trump.

 

[Sanji Himura]

On the GOP side, the establishment candidates were Bush, Rubio & Kasich. Cruz had always been perceived as the extremist Tea Party candidate. As the establishment candidates have failed to get any traction, Cruz has emerged as a more acceptable (barely) alternative to Trump. The GOP establishment is in a far worse pickle than the Democrats as they are faced the double prospect of an ideologically extreme & possibly unelectable candidate in Cruz, or Trump, who isn't really espousing traditional Republican positions at all.

I would have to disagree with you in saying that Cruz is unelectable. I followed his Senate bid four years ago, and to pushed a rather respectable David Dewhurst to a runoff and won. If that doesn't speak on his elect-ability, then I don't know what will.