Russian Invasion of Ukraine

  • Thread starter Rage Racer
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Rage Racer
They can use them to pay for the Russian gas. And possibly other supplies: some words from Kremlin are already heard about switching other resources to ruble payments.
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Yeah, like oil, coal, rare earth minerals, metals like titanium, fertilizer, wheat and cooking oils?
 
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Distrust and confusion among the ranks in the Russian government. The end of the regime is nigh.

@Rage Racer, are you and your fellow Russians ready to actually vote for a new president and government officials?
 
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What the heck does this mean? Besides the fact that young people naturally have less context and knowledge of the history of this matter? People who are 65+ have literally lived half their lives in the Cold War and the vast majority of their formal education on Russia was under a Soviet context.






American military and intel officials can't figure out why Russia sucks so bad at war :lol:

 
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Keef




Distrust and confusion among the ranks in the Russian government. The end of the regime is nigh.

@Rage Racer, are you and your fellow Russians ready to actually vote for a new president and government officials?
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First, I'd like to know who is that "new president" to vote for...
Shoigu? Medvedev? Or maybe even Kadyrov?

Zhirinovsky (the man who predicted almost exact date of the Z-day) is still in hospital with COVID-19 (there were even rumors about his death), so it's unlikely.

Honestly, I wouldn't share your optimism, nobody said these tensions are enough for an open confrontation between MoD and the Kremlin. For now, they're pretty much in the same boat. But even if Putin hypothetically gets overthrown by Shoigu, this won't immediately mean democracy, freedom, friendship with the West & all that BS. We've already been through this in 1993. Moreover, I'm afraid that pro-Western opposition (Navalny & his allies) might face even worse times than Putin's.
 
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I have a strong feeling that China will invade Taiwan very soon. It all depends on how Russia handles the invasion of Ukraine. And if China does invades, ****ing ruin them.
 
Blitz24
Why am I not surprised. At all.

Russian soldiers are just cannon fodder. Nothing else. Apparently cannon fodder not just to the Kremlin but the military commanders as well.
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Considering the Soviet Union lied about Chernobyl and tried to cover it up, it wouldn't surprise me if people really didn't know what it was or somehow thought it wasn't nearly as dangerous as it is.
RiiiidgeRacer
I have a strong feeling that China will invade Taiwan very soon. It all depends on how Russia handles the invasion of Ukraine. And if China does invades, ****ing ruin them.
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That's doubtful. Taiwan and the US have a defense agreement, it would absolutely not be in China's best interest to invade. While are war with China would be incredibly costly in terms of human life, China wouldn't win and it would likely lead to the collapse of the PRC. China's only motive is to look out for China and it's not going to do anything to jeopardize that.

Even without a war, China's economy relies on the West to function. The West would sanction the absolute hell out of China and its economy would collapse fast leading to a whole bunch of pissed-off people without jobs or money.

What China will likely do with Taiwan is play the long game by slowly eroding its government from the inside and eventually the Taiwanese government will just layover and let China take over without a single shot being fired. There isn't much the world could do if the Taiwanese government agreed to become part of China, but there's quite a bit it could do if China invaded.
 
RiiiidgeRacer
I have a strong feeling that China will invade Taiwan very soon. It all depends on how Russia handles the invasion of Ukraine. And if China does invades, ****ing ruin them.
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Joey D
That's doubtful. Taiwan and the US have a defense agreement, it would absolutely not be in China's best interest to invade. While are war with China would be incredibly costly in terms of human life, China wouldn't win and it would likely lead to the collapse of the PRC. China's only motive is to look out for China and it's not going to do anything to jeopardize that.

Even without a war, China's economy relies on the West to function. The West would sanction the absolute hell out of China and its economy would collapse fast leading to a whole bunch of pissed-off people without jobs or money.

What China will likely do with Taiwan is play the long game by slowly eroding its government from the inside and eventually the Taiwanese government will just layover and let China take over without a single shot being fired. There isn't much the world could do if the Taiwanese government agreed to become part of China, but there's quite a bit it could do if China invaded.
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Agreed that anytime in the near future would be a terrible time for China to invade. In fact, they're probably even less inclined to invade now that they're witnessing the power of simple economic sanctions. They should absolutely not underestimate the West's, especially the US's, capacity to adapt quickly to changing economic situations. We're already making vast changes in response to the fallout of Covid in order to regain various manufacturing capacities back from China.

Economic sanctions on China would undoubtedly cause us difficult times in the US but it would be even more devastating to China's economy than it has been to Russia's. China will likely keep using their soft war tactics against Taiwan to erode their military's readiness and morale for years to come. An invasion would lead to a very strong Pacific coalition led by the US and followed by everybody China has territorial disputes with which is more than they'd like to deal with. The US, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan, followed by the Phillipines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
 
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Rage Racer
Honestly, I wouldn't share your optimism, nobody said these tensions are enough for an open confrontation between MoD and the Kremlin. For now, they're pretty much in the same boat. But even if Putin hypothetically gets overthrown by Shoigu, this won't immediately mean democracy, freedom, friendship with the West & all that BS. We've already been through this in 1993. Moreover, I'm afraid that pro-Western opposition (Navalny & his allies) might face even worse times than Putin's.
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I have been of the idea that if Putin was to be removed from power, it would be done in an... amicable fashion. That there would be a smooth transition where Putin "accepts" being replaced & is whisked away from the public spotlight from here-on. A new leader/government is installed, but behind the scenes, Putin still has significant input on the country. Perhaps, like when I had heard stories of when Medvedev was in power, but Putin was still pulling strings.

Maybe I'm off a bit, but I certainly don't see a transition happening as some might where Putin is noticeably overthrown through force. It doesn't strike me as the way they would want the world to notice transfer of power, that they handle these things with a certain facade, maybe.
 
McLaren
It doesn't strike me as the way they would want the world to notice transfer of power,
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I'm not entirely sure Russians give a damn how the world perceives their procedures. Putin already has bounties on his head. He's decimated all of his oligarchs' fortunes within a month and they all know they'll never get it back.
 
Keef
I'm not entirely sure Russians give a damn how the world perceives their procedures. Putin already has bounties on his head. He's decimated all of his oligarchs' fortunes within a month and they all know they'll never get it back.
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How Russians perceive it & how their government wants it to look could be two different things. If both sides want Putin gone, what I'm saying is they will do it in a way that makes it appear as an accepted-by-all-parties & peaceful transfer of power, maybe as way for the new leader to show as a sign of good faith towards the rest of the world that they are still a proper government ready to do business with again.

What I don't think will happen are some who are expecting Putin to be ousted through a coup or anything close where he has to be visibly forced out. I think if he is to be removed, it will be done "willingly" by him with hidden terms.
 
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RiiiidgeRacer
I have a strong feeling that China will invade Taiwan very soon. It all depends on how Russia handles the invasion of Ukraine. And if China does invades, ****ing ruin them.
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You know I thought that same thing when this all started, but I didn't expect the whole World to turn against Putin like it has.

Xi will probably have to think long and hard if he wants to risk this kind of World reaction. His advantage being that China is many times more tied to the World economy than Russia ever was.
 
Rage Racer
First, I'd like to know who is that "new president" to vote for...
Shoigu? Medvedev? Or maybe even Kadyrov?

Zhirinovsky (the man who predicted almost exact date of the Z-day) is still in hospital with COVID-19 (there were even rumors about his death), so it's unlikely.

Honestly, I wouldn't share your optimism, nobody said these tensions are enough for an open confrontation between MoD and the Kremlin. For now, they're pretty much in the same boat. But even if Putin hypothetically gets overthrown by Shoigu, this won't immediately mean democracy, freedom, friendship with the West & all that BS. We've already been through this in 1993. Moreover, I'm afraid that pro-Western opposition (Navalny & his allies) might face even worse times than Putin's.
Click to expand...
If Putin were ousted it would be the "freaks and fanatics and drug addicts" in power in a sliced up Russia according to Medvedev. All with nuclear weapons aimed at the USA based on the reported translation. Who knows. If the 90s is anything to go by I wouldn't want to be in Russia now...
 
If Putin is deposed, i can't see the west lifting sanctions until they know Russia is in the hands of someone who isn't a threat to the rest of Europe and NATO. Europe has always had uneasy relationships between countries within itself, the devestation of WWI and WWII and the power of the modern war machine will not be forgotten quickly. The relative peace of the last almost 80 years is an equilibrium we want to maintain at all costs.

Russia under Putin has strived to unbalance peace within the west by interfearing in elections with the funding of divisive politicians and has largely suceeded in doing so. Unfortunately for him he's underestimated the west's willingness to come together and act swiftly when that peace is threatened.

Ukraines unwillingness to roll over even when massively outnumbered, and the west's sanctions that even corporate greed has largely towed the line with, must show to Russia that at least having a courteous relationship with the west is going to be favourable when going forward.
 
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If these sanctions end up damaging Russia so badly that it struggles to recover until they are lifted, I can see it being a very interesting and world-changing strategy. Any invasion of Taiwan that China may have been planning could be scaled back if China realises that it needs the West to keep it afloat, and it doesn't want to risk these sanctions tipping their balance away from being the superpower they currently are.

Of course on the other hand, China will have learned the exact same thing, and could try to sanction various western countries if they get too pally with Taiwan, or launch an attack like the Iraq War on a Chinese ally.

The worldwide political and economic reaction to Wars of Aggression without even raising a weapon could end up being a whole new strategy for future wars. I can see countries like the US being very hesitant of going after any regime after the messes of Iraq and Afghanistan if it risks WinnXi the Pooh pulling the plug on its ports exporting to those countries.

Of course, this all hinges on there being a punching bag country that fights back. Ukraine has born the brunt of this "experiment", but that has relied on them holding off the Russian troops who have been poor, but destructive. If the attacking army was much more successful in WW2 style blitzkrieg levels of land grabbing, sanctions would be too late.

Let's hope the worry for destructive sanctions is a good strategy for the future to keep peace on this world. :guilty:
 
It's headline news now on BBC America TV. Tomorrow Putin turns off the gas unless he's paid in rubles.
 
ROAD_DOGG33J
www.thedailybeast.com

Soldiers ‘Irradiated’ From Digging Trenches in Chernobyl

Several hundred Russian troops reportedly rushed to a special medical facility in Belarus after digging in radioactive soil in a forest near the infamous nuclear plant.
www.thedailybeast.com www.thedailybeast.com

Shocking, I tell ya
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shocked philip j fry GIF
 
I feel for those russian soldiers with radiation sickness. Apparently their lives is of no value at all to the leaders of Russia.
Sending in soldiers to fight a war, and expecting casualties is one thing but telling them to dig trenches in radioactive soil is a total disregard for human life.
They will die for nothing
 
Video makes clear why Putin demands energy payment in rubles, and why doing so is financially disadvantageous for Europe and the US.

 
Depending on how many grays those soldiers got, they're pretty much dead on arrival at that facility. Sure they'll get treatment, but that treatment will, at best, extend their lives by mere weeks. The Red Forrest radiation levels are between 0.1-10.0 mSv/hour, which means the soldiers could've received upwards of .01 Gy per hour without factoring in digging into the ground. Anything under 2 Gy is mostly treatable, however, it's almost certain that the soldiers will end up with cancer and have a considerably shorter life span. Go above 2 Gy and your chance of survival drops dramatically with anything over 6 Gy having a 95%+ mortality rate.
 

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