The 2012 Driver transfer discussion/speculation thread

[prisonermonkeys]

Sutil is favourite for the second Williams. Unless the talk of Ferrari buying out Kobayashi's seat for Bianchi, and the team placing Kobayashi at Williams turns out to be true.

 

[Centura]

Formula 1 has undergone some of its biggest changes since 2009. Ever snce Kimi left, we’ve seen the introduction of the F-duct and DRS, fuel-heavy cars and the Pirelli tyres. Take individually, each one of these fundamentally changes the handling of the car; combined, they have an exponential effect. Kimi will be like the kid in class who is an entire term behind in his homework – he’s got a lot of catching-up to do before he can even start to make inroads on car development. And despite what some of his fans will tell you, he’s not so talented that he will simply adapt to them in the course of a day, or even an entire testing session. If Raikkonen signs up for 2012, it’s probably going to take him months to get comfortable.

http://www.f1fanatic.co.uk/2011/11/...rn-f1-williams/comment-page-2/#comment-878211

Double standards.

 

[Alex.]

Hell of a pissing match going on here. Shame niether driver is going to have a seat in 2012

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Don't be so sure of that. Petrov is believed to be talking to HRT, Williams and Marussia.

Double standards.

I'm not seeing your point. I still stand by what I said about Raikkonen, and I still stand by what I've said about Senna. Those statements do not contradict one another. I simply said that Raikkonen had his work cut out for him, because changes introduced to the sport since he left have fundamentally altered the sport, and he will need to learn how each of these elements influence the car's behaviour before he can start being competitive. I never said that he couldn't do it, only that it would take time for him to get to that point (and even the team admits it) - with is at odds with the view that Raikkonen's fans hold, many of whom seem to think that he will get into the car and instantly be able to challenge for pole and podiums.

In the case of Senna, I think he has failed to capitalise on the machinery available to him. I don't see how any of that has anything to do with what I said about Raikkonen. And even if there is something in my posts that is contradictory, it still doesn't change the fact that Bruno Senna hasn't done enough to secure a seat for 2012. Team pricipals evidently don't feel he is the right man for their teams.

 

[The Outlaw]

Just man up for once bro, it's all good.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

What do you mean, "man up"? I've explained to you why there is no contradiction - and therefore no hypocrisy - in my posts. I can be stubborn, but I can also be persuaded to change my mind, provided that the argument is compelling enough. And as it stands, I find all of the arguments that "Senna was the better driver at Renault" and "Kimi Raikkonen will not struggle" to be as weak as light beer.

 

[Peter.]

See, that's your problem - you invent excuses to explain away Senna's poor performances. According to you, when Senna does well, it's all down to him. But when he has a poor race, it's somebody else's fault. You had a go at me last night for likening Senna to Piquet Jnr., but the irony of it is that what you are doing for Senna is exactly what Nelson Piquet did in 2008 and 2009: blame everyone else.

Now, you can sprout this nonsense until you're blue in the face, but there is one critical element that you have overlooked: there are twenty-four seats on the grid. Twenty-two are filled, and Senna has not been connected to either of the other two. Since teams have to take the best two drivers available to them, and because Senna does not have a 2012 driver, none of the team principals - ie the people who can actually make it happen - think highly enough of him to give him a seat despite your claims that he has the money and the talent to make it.

So go ahead. Explain that one. Is there some massive conspiracy to remove all Brazilian drivers from the grid and replace them with the French?

Joy, more walls of text telling me that i'm chatting nonsense. Calling someone's opinion nonsense is nothing but disrespect disrespect. Your attitude has not made you friends at any forum so far, and if you keep it up, you will still be labelled as a very intelligent troll by some.

Senna is not comparable to Piquet in that Bruno's year at HRT was hardly a chance. The car was 7 seconds slower on a good day, and was barely faster than the GP2 car he drove before. The minute he drove that car for the first time, his future dimmed. Piquet drove a car that was top 10 material for his 1st season. While Senna was beating any of the teammates HRT threw at him, Piquet was busy hitting barriers most of the time.

Anyway, I can break down each race so far, and tell you how things went wrong for Senna, not of his own doing. But I can't seem to bother at the moment, that is unless you want to take Senna vs. Petrov a step further. But I will admit, again, that Bruno has caused it on himself already. Spa and Brazil were his fault. I missed him in Abu Dhabi, so unsure there.

Back to race seats, honestly, where on earth would he go anyway? There is no sensible places for him to go anyway given the current seat market. The only place he could go to is Williams, who want money and experience, which they already have with their current lineup, if Barichello stays. If Rubens retires, Petrov's more proven record might give him a place there. Senna is a risk Williams might not want to take given their situation. Because he is inexperienced compared to any other drivers on the market for Williams.

We have been running around in circles forever about two pay drivers who may not even be on the grid next year. Are you now willing to agree to disagree and move on to some more productive discussion?

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Are you now willing to agree to disagree and move on to some more productive discussion?

Don't take that tone. Especially when you ignored my plea to move on last night:

Can we maybe move on from the Petrov-Senna comparisons? All we're doing is going around in circles, and it's not like we're going to affect anything.

I asked you to drop it. You ignored it. So don't act like you've got some initiative here by asking me to move on.

 

[nitrorocks]

Why is everyone thinking that Kimi will do good? Micheal drove for Ferrari as a test drive after retiring and he drove each year's car and when he cane back to f1 he wasn't that great.

 

[The Outlaw]

Lol, Who exactly falls under the term "everyone"? Is PM by chance hiring you to troll for him?

 

[Northstar]

Why is everyone thinking that Kimi will do good? Micheal drove for Ferrari as a test drive after retiring and he drove each year's car and when he cane back to f1 he wasn't that great.

I think he will do good considering the circumstances(won't be great but may beat Grosjean), he has at least been racing in his 2 years away which is better than a few test sessions every year. Plus there is the factor that Kimi is 10 years younger than Schumi so it may make coming back a little easier.

 

[hawkeye122]

Don't take that tone. Especially when you ignored my plea to move on last night:

I asked you to drop it. You ignored it. So don't act like you've got some initiative here by asking me to move on.

Oh for heavens sake! So he finally agrees to what you want and thats not good enough?

I really hope Sutil gets a seat (Watch this) Because he's better than Senna and Petrov

 

[prisonermonkeys]

I can't help but feel that Adrian Sutil has reached the zenith of his career. That's not to say that he doesn't deserve a seat, but more that he has reached the point where he is at his best. I don't think there's much more to come from him. So that makes him a solid driver, but he's not quite a front runner.

I'm predicting one of three scenarios for the rest of the silly season, in order from what I think is most to least likely:

1) Sutil to Williams, van der Garde to HRT, Petrov to Marussia.
2) Bianchi to Sauber, Kobayashi to Williams, van der Garde to HRT, Petrov to Marussia.
3) Bianchi to Sauber, Kobayashi to Caterham, Sutil to Williams, van der Garde to HRT, Petrov to Marussia.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

I don't see Bianchi taking over for Kobayashi at all at Sauber...if anything maybe for Perez and then Perez taking over for Massa. Those three choices only make the first look likely.

 

[RTSolvalou]

With the words that have come out of Ferrari in the last week, You can bet your life that Ferrari have set Massa's seat in diamond for 2012. If he were to be ejected now, it would be a much bigger surprise than Alguers and Buemi being dropped from STR.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Short of a shock driver change, I don't think we're going to get any more driver annoucements until the new year. HRT have said they won't decide until January, and Williams have said they want the line-up settled by Christmas, but that does not mean they will make an annoucement straight away. Since Europe is starting to shut down for the Christmas-New Year break, I don't think we'll get anything new.

I don't see Bianchi taking over for Kobayashi at all at Sauber...if anything maybe for Perez and then Perez taking over for Massa. Those three choices only make the first look likely.

I think that swapping Massa for Perez would be the smartest move Ferrari could make (assuming they do indeed want to place Bianchi in a team) - but at the same time, I think Ferrari will opt to play it safe, the way they always do. They never try anything outrageous with their car design, instead preferring to do something sensible and proven to preserve their position, and try to make up the difference during the season. And they never had a driver development program until other teams established their own, because until then, Ferrari had always taken drivers from Formula 1 teams, but the advent of driver development programs meant that young drivers were loyal to other teams. There was a time when Ferrari would have snapped Vettel up in a heartbeat based on his performances for Toro Rosso, but because Toro Rosso was intimately connected to Red Bull, they were forced to watch as someone else laid the first claim to him. So now they're in a position where they've got an under-performing driver like Felipe Massa, and no immediately-obvious replacement for him because drivers are bound to other teams, and what young drivers they do have (like Perez) only have a season of experience to their name.

Of course, then I'd be forced to like Ferrari because I like Perez.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Alonso is more than enough to make up for the draw backs of Ferrari that was obviously shown last year and was shown in lesser but still good detail this year. Give the man a car that is at least half a step up to a full step from this year and he will destroy other next year. Put Perez on the team to learn, or in that case like any team member to ferrari, back up and you'll see a well developed driver due to just working with Alonso.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Alonso is more than enough to make up for the draw backs of Ferrari that was obviously shown last year and was shown in lesser but still good detail this year.

You would think that Ferrari would recognise this, and entrust the team's title campaigns to Alonso whilst having a quick youngster showing what he's really capable of. But since they won't do that, it really shows that they don't trust their drivers: they don't trust Alonso to be able to carry the team, and they don't trust Perez to prove that he is as fast as they think he can be.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Well, I do agree with you. They tend to have a lack of understanding and direction for where they're going with the team, I think they'll be surpassed by the end of this decade in championships.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Oh, I think they have direction. Plenty of it. They're just unwilling to mortgage their past reputation on their future success. They won't take a chance, because they're too afraid it won't pay off, and that they will slide down the order. I think they're privately terrified of a repeat of 2009, which was their worst season in fifteen years. Ferrari love being out the front, and they always consider themselves as being one of the two front-running teams. They don't care who the other is, so long as they are in the fight, because - and we've seen it time and again in their political rhetoric - they believe that they are Formula 1, and that the success of the sport hinges on their success. Maybe that is the case in Italy, but it is certainly not true for the rest of the world. According to Alonso, the team is really pushing to create a car that will give them the same kind of success as Red Bull had this year - but so long as they err on he side of caution, the only way they will get it is if everyone else blows it. I can't really fault them for such a conservative approach given how expensive a msitake will likely be (both in terms of money and positions lost), but it feels like the passion is slowly draining out of the team and being replaced with corporate efficiency.

EDIT: Martin Brundle reckons "the music has stopped" and the last few drivers have fallen into their seats. He's banking on Vitaly Petrov defecting to Caterham:

Suspect Vitaly Petrov may re emerge at Caterham F1 (formerly Team Lotus) in 2012. Music has stopped, there'll be a mad scramble for seats.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

I just hope Alonso doesn't have a Hamilton season for 2012, since he and his wife are supposedly divorcing.

 

[prisonermonkeys]

Papadopoulo (I can spell his name without having to check his Twitter feed!) backs up Brundle's Petrov-Caterham theory:

@MBrundleF1 Trulli was always supposed to be out for 2012 ... and now with so many drivers having money ...

Although he makes it out to be more of a free-for-all, where the driver with the best bank balance gets the seat.

 

[astrosdude91]

I like Brundle akining the seat swapping to a game of musical chairs. Makes so much sense. Very astute comparison.

 

[The Outlaw]

You would think that Ferrari would recognise this, and entrust the team's title campaigns to Alonso whilst having a quick youngster showing what he's really capable of. But since they won't do that, it really shows that they don't trust their drivers: they don't trust Alonso to be able to carry the team, and they don't trust Perez to prove that he is as fast as they think he can be.

Well, I do agree with you. They tend to have a lack of understanding and direction for where they're going with the team, I think they'll be surpassed by the end of this decade in championships.

I'm not sure I agree with you guys. First of all, Perez is still a rather unexperienced/unproven commodity, and throwing him in the Ferrari seat right now to let him develop is probably not what Ferrari are after (especially after the drought they've had over the past few years), as they'd rather wait and see how he develops in a team like Sauber...as just about any other sensible top team would do (Red Bull are doing the same with their long list of drivers knocking at the front door).

I think Ferrari are more worried about delivering a really good car for next year, as that has been the bigger problem over the past few years. I think if they can deliver a car that is a legitmate contendor, Felipe (who Ferrari are fairly loyal to, and have faith in) might be able to rekindle enough form to help Ferrari become a legitmate WCC contendor. Additionally, I think it has been rather obvious that Ferrari have a ton of faith in Fernando (everyone from Gene to Luca praise not only his driving ability, but the spark he has brought to the team) , and his ability to carry the team, so I think saying otherwise is maybe a bit questionable.

 

[RodrigoDLL]

Brazilian press has just confirmed Williams signed Bruno Senna for 2012.

 

[MagpieRacer]

I sincerely hope that's true.

 

[Tom]

I sincerely hope that's true.

Me too, I'd love to see Senna at Williams.

 

[Sach]

Me too, I'd love to see Senna at Williams.

+1!


It's getting around elsewhere as well. Hope it's true.

 

[Ardius]

Me too, I'd love to see Senna at Williams.

I don't. As much as I'd like to see Senna with a seat...there are much better drivers available and I'd rather see Williams succeed again (one day). I'd rather have seen Alguesuari or Buemi with the seat. I don't really care for Petrov or Sutil so much but they would also be perhaps better choices than Maldonado or Senna.

I hope very much that if it is true that Williams have a highly successful season and that Senna finally shows that form he has shown on a more consistent basis and builds a strong F1 career.
But I doubt it will happen.

To be honest, I would rather see Barrichello make a 20th season. One for the records, and two because I believe he is far more useful to Williams for developing the car than anyone else as well as providing a good base for solid and consistent results. Not to mention that Rubens Barrichello deserves a proper send-off.

 

[Sach]

Fernando to decide his 2012 driving partner this Christmas...