The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

[Danoff]

I wasn't familiar with a lot of the polling stuff back in 2016 but I'm watching it much more closely now. I'm curious to see how 538 does. Years ago I actually dismissed them because they were relatively new and their sports betting was a disaster so when I learned they were tracking election stuff I was like "pssh they're always wrong".

But their system makes just as much sense as anybody else's. They've also got an interactive map. I just ran a scenario where Biden hits 270 even losing all the states you mentioned and PA. Basically, if Biden loses PA but wins AZ, he wins by two electoral votes. If he loses both PA and AZ, he loses. He has to win one of those two. Of course I pulled that out of my ass because 538's model changes everything each time a state is chosen and if I followed that, this map would not be likely to look like this. But I feel this is a worst-case scenario. Both WI and MI are polling well outside the margin of error so I think they're safe.

I'm super confident Biden will lose OH, GA, NC, TX and IA. No doubt in my mind. I always aim for the worst case lol. That leaves PA and AZ as super important races in my mind.

Think about it from the opposite view. Trump needs OH, GA, NC, TX and IA, and they're each close. He has to have them. And more.

 

[FuriousDemon]

OH, TX, GA are Trump. Most likely FL is too, which is a huge one. I think NC is a maybe for Biden but I wouldn’t rule it out for Trump either. Even AZ is not clear.

 

[Keef]

Think about it from the opposite view. Trump needs OH, GA, NC, TX and IA, and they're each close. He has to have them. And more.

This is the difference between playing to win and playing to not lose

 

[Blitz24]

If Trump loses Florida AND (somehow) Texas, I would be stunned if he wins.

 

[Danoff]

OH, TX, GA are Trump. Most likely FL is too, which is a huge one. I think NC is a maybe for Biden but I wouldn’t rule it out for Trump either. Even AZ is not clear.

Trump is losing florida. But it's close
Trump is losing GA, but it's even closer.
Trump is winning Ohio, but it's close
Trump is winning Texas, but it's close

He has to have Texas. There's no question on that. Ohio is also fairly critical. But he also pretty much has to have Florida and Georgia, which he is slightly losing at the moment. And if he took all of those, he still needs more. That's not enough.

 

[Biggles]

538 isn't doing any polling itself, it simply tracks & aggregates other polls.

All Biden has to do is win Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania, the "rust belt" states that cost HRC the election. He's leading by a comfortable margin in the first two, closer in PA. I would be surprised if Biden won in TX, GA, Iowa or OH, but it's possible. I think it's likely he'll win Arizona. North Carolina & Florida are a real toss-up. Basically, should Biden take North Carolina or Florida it's almost certain he will win the election. Success in the toss-up states also makes it much more likely that the Democrats take back the senate.

I think it comes down to whether soft Democrats/independents/blacks/young people turn out in numbers for Biden to offset what will be an enthusiastic turnout from the Trump base. That an a minimum of election shenanigans.

 

[Danoff]

All Biden has to do is win Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania, the "rust belt" states that cost HRC the election. He's leading by a comfortable margin in the first two, closer in PA.

Yup. I think it bears repeating. All Biden has to do is win Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. One could maybe thrown MN on that list. And those look fairly solid.

538 has Biden winning PA 86 times out of 100. That's a pretty hefty margin. Sure they could be wrong, but Biden can win without PA, and like you said, Trump effectively can't win without taking at least one of these. PA is the most likely, but it's not exactly looking easy.

 

[McLaren]

Those are basically all essential for Trump to win if he wants to win. Plus he'd need more. If Trump took all of those, he'd need Pennsylvania to win.

Put another way, if Biden wins (almost) any of those, he'd win without Pennsylvania.*

*Based on current polling

What I heard is that Biden grabs Pennsylvania, it should be a wrap. I think the current projection has Biden already past 270, and PA just solidifies it.

Think about it from the opposite view. Trump needs OH, GA, NC, TX and IA, and they're each close. He has to have them. And more.

OH, TX, GA are Trump. Most likely FL is too, which is a huge one. I think NC is a maybe for Biden but I wouldn’t rule it out for Trump either. Even AZ is not clear.

The last reports I read were that Biden actually has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump winning Pennsylvania.

 

[ryzno]

Trump is losing florida. But it's close
Trump is losing GA, but it's even closer.
Trump is winning Ohio, but it's close
Trump is winning Texas, but it's close

He has to have Texas. There's no question on that. Ohio is also fairly critical. But he also pretty much has to have Florida and Georgia, which he is slightly losing at the moment. And if he took all of those, he still needs more. That's not enough.

He ain't gonna lose GA. Trump stickers flags and signs almost everywhere.
I've seen more "Any functioning human" signs than Biden signs.

Hell there's a video of him(Biden) in a rural town yesterday, nothing but Trump signs. If he really wants to win GA he needs to focus on Atlanta.

JMO...

Spoiler: Language warning of a video showing the peaceful Dems...

 

[Danoff]

He ain't gonna lose GA. Trump stickers flags and signs almost everywhere.
I've seen more "Any functioning human" signs than Biden signs.

Hell there's a video of him(Biden) in a rural town yesterday, nothing but Trump signs. If he really wants to win GA he needs to focus on Atlanta.

JMO...

Trump might not lose Georgia. But it looks close. It's probably the closest race (according to the polls) in the country right now.

What I heard is that Biden grabs Pennsylvania, it should be a wrap. I think the current projection has Biden already past 270, and PA just solidifies it.

The last reports I read were that Biden actually has a better chance of winning Texas than Trump winning Pennsylvania.

Yup, that's the current forecast. Pennsylvania is not particularly close, but if Biden takes it that'll basically do it. Something weird would have to happen for that to not do it (eg: Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota going for Trump). But Biden has realistic alternatives to Pennsylvania, like Arizona. Whereas Trump doesn't really. There aren't many scenarios where Trump loses Pennsylvania and wins.

Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas are all kinda trending in Trump's direction (though not all forecast for a Trump win at the moment). But he needs all of them and more.

Edit:

In the little interactive chart on 538, if you give Pennsylvania to Biden his chances go from winning 88/100 times (right now) to 98/100.

Edit 2:

As we all know, polls can be wrong.

 

[Liquid]

This is shaping up to be another Bush/Gore or, *puts on stovepipe top hat*, another Hayes/Tilden.

Hayes beat Tilden in 1878 by one electoral vote. You'd have to pray for a decisive victory or the grapes would be so sour that the whole space-time continuum would be enveloped in vinegar.

 

[McLaren]

Yup, that's the current forecast. Pennsylvania is not particularly close, but if Biden takes it that'll basically do it. Something weird would have to happen for that to not do it (eg: Michigan, Wisconsin, or Minnesota going for Trump). But Biden has realistic alternatives to Pennsylvania, like Arizona. Whereas Trump doesn't really. There aren't many scenarios where Trump loses Pennsylvania and wins.

Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, and Texas are all kinda trending in Trump's direction (though not all forecast for a Trump win at the moment). But he needs all of them and more.

Edit:

In the little interactive chart on 538, if you give Pennsylvania to Biden his chances go from winning 88/100 times (right now) to 98/100.

Edit 2:

As we all know, polls can be wrong.

Did you catch this headline this morning with Wisconsin?

This is likely an outlier, but 538 gave ABC-Washington Post an A+ in poll grading, so in their words, it's not an easy poll to disregard.

Biden up 17 points in new Wisconsin poll

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523093-biden-up-17-points-in-new-wisconsin-poll

 

[Danoff]

Did you catch this headline this morning with Wisconsin?

This is likely an outlier, but 538 gave ABC-Washington Post an A+ in poll grading, so in their words, it's not an easy poll to disregard.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/523093-biden-up-17-points-in-new-wisconsin-poll

Yea that kind of thing really drives the poll results. I can only hope it's correct.

 

[TexRex]

Trump might not lose Georgia. But it looks close. It's probably the closest race (according to the polls) in the country right now.

But the signs!

 

[ryzno]

But the signs!

But the polls!

 

[Danoff]

But the polls!

...are way more trustworthy (yes even in light of 2016) than your eyeball read of pickup trucks. I guess the pollsters should have just asked you:

"Hey ryzno! Given your general take on bumper stickers, how do you think the state's going to go. Trump? Ok guys! Wrap it up, looks like we know how Georgia is going!"

 

[ryzno]

...are way more trustworthy (yes even in light of 2016) than your eyeball read of pickup trucks. I guess the pollsters should have just asked you:

"Hey ryzno! Given your general take on bumper stickers, how do you think the state's going to go. Trump? Ok guys! Wrap it up, looks like we know how Georgia is going!"

I'd say Salt Life would win.

 

[TB]

On 270towin.com, even if you change the toss-up states (currently shown as Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Ohio and Iowa) to Trump, that still only puts him at 247. Throwing Maine into the bunch as it appears divided, ups that to 251. He'd still need to win the likes of PA or two-thirds of MN/MI/WI. Which sounds like a pretty tall order.

 

[McLaren]

My understanding is many polls took into account what happened in 2016 & some apparently, are sticking by their claim that Trump won within' their margins of error (therefore, "their polls were not technically wrong"). With adjustments made for 2016's turnout, most are still projecting Biden winning. Rasmussen's poll, last I saw, had Trump ahead by 1 point which surely does not point to high signs of confidence for him.

Not that this seems to matter when Democrats are still telling their supporters to go vote & don't rely on the polls.

 

[Blitz24]

My understanding is many polls took into account what happened in 2016 & some apparently, are sticking by their claim that Trump won within' their margins of error (therefore, "their polls were not technically wrong"). With adjustments made for 2016's turnout, most are still projecting Biden winning. Rasmussen's poll, last I saw, had Trump ahead by 1 point which surely does not point to high signs of confidence for him.

Not that this seems to matter when Democrats are still telling their supporters to go vote & don't rely on the polls.

Maybe they learned from their 2016 mistake?

 

[Danoff]

Maybe they learned from their 2016 mistake?

Definitely, by not nominating Hillary.

 

[McLaren]

Definitely, by not nominating Hillary.

They don't even want her commenting on the election for fear of jinxing it.

 

[DK]

This is shaping up to be another Bush/Gore or, *puts on stovepipe top hat*, another Hayes/Tilden.

That's the scenario that's been stewing in my head since probably the killing of George Floyd.

 

[Danoff]

This is shaping up to be another Bush/Gore or, *puts on stovepipe top hat*, another Hayes/Tilden.

Hayes beat Tilden in 1878 by one electoral vote. You'd have to pray for a decisive victory or the grapes would be so sour that the whole space-time continuum would be enveloped in vinegar.

That's the scenario that's been stewing in my head since probably the killing of George Floyd.

In what way are we shaping up that way?

 

[Liquid]

In what way are we shaping up that way?

I'm not as convinced that it's a straightforward "If Trump takes these three states, he has it" or "If Biden takes these three states, he has it".

In 2016 the margin of victory in the electoral college was 77. I think this one could be a lot closer than that. Hayes/Tilden in 1876* and Bush/Gore in 2000 are references to elections in which the margin of victory in the electoral college was extremely close, at 5 votes and 1 vote respectively.

*I said 1878 initally.

 

[Danoff]

I'm not as convinced that it's a straightforward "If Trump takes these three states, he has it" or "If Biden takes these three states, he has it".

In 2016 the margin of victory in the electoral college was 77. I think this one could be a lot closer than that. Hayes/Tilden in 1876* and Bush/Gore in 2000 are references to elections in which the margin of victory in the electoral college was extremely close, at 5 votes and 1 vote respectively.

*I said 1878 initally.

I understand that it is possible for it to be close. I'm trying to figure out why we think that's going to happen. I'm not seeing indications that it's going to be close other than statements from campaigns.

Edit:

Let's take 538 as an example. If we declare a state to be wrapped up because the polls indicate a lead of 5%, then Trump has 70 EC votes wrapped up (Utah just barely misses that margin). Meanwhile, that would indicate that Biden has 278 EC votes wrapped up (juuuuuuuust barely... so tomorrow that might not be the case).

So basically, if you give the 538 polls a 5% margin for error, they currently say Biden has already won. The states that are below 5%, which even if Trump takes all of he loses, are these:

Utah
Mississippi
Nebraska
Kansas
Indiana
Misery
South Carolina
Arkansas
Montana
Texas
Ohio
============== (this divide is the difference between leaning Trump and leaning Biden)
Iowa
Georgia
Maine
Florida
North Carolina
Arizona

In otherwords, those 6 states which are currently forecast as slightly leaning Biden above, are the buffer. Each one is unnecessary if you assume only a 5% error in the polls. So basically, with our going in assumption (taking everything over 5% margin), each state in the above list that Biden might win is excess. If Trump took all of them, he'd still lose, but it would down to one state, Pennsylvania.

I know, this is way too much investigation into polling data (actually this is polling data of polling data), which can be baked with biases and errors, and is very much an inexact science. So take it with a grain of salt.

But I'm not sure what other evidence we have that it is shaping up to be close.

 

[ryzno]

I'll care about the polls when I actually receive a poll instead of an extended warranty offer for a 30 year old car. I'd love one but they always hang up when I tell them how old it is.

 

[TB]

 

[Danoff]

I'll care about the polls when I actually receive a poll instead of an extended warranty offer for a 30 year old car. I'd love one but they always hang up when I tell them how old it is.

You have been taught to systematically deny all information that you don't like. It's called an echo chamber, or confirmation bias. It is what Trump has been cultivating since before he was elected. "Don't listen to them, don't listen to anyone but me".

Polling data is not perfect, it can't really be. Also even if Trump had only a 10% chance of victory according to the polls, occasionally you'll roll a 1. But it is information, and switching off your brain to information out of hand is generally not the practice of someone who is interested in reality.

 

[ryzno]

Exactly what I said man...
I've never received a phone call from a pollster asking my opinion. Why would I give two flips about theirs?

I still would like an extended warranty for my 30 year old car too!

Edit: Danoff Trump has nothing to do with it man. Y'all stop acting like I actually like him.