The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread

[Keef]

Now seems pretty clear that Biden is going to take Georgia.

Agreed, but his margin will be so slim that it could be effected by a recount.

CNN just reported a drop to1,797 in GA as I was typing.

NV is going to end up as tight as the others. Every red county in NV is even more red than it was in 2016 and we're talking an average lean of ~45%. Huge. Reno only has 16,000 more votes to count and is only leaning blue by 4%. Vegas has 111,000 votes left but is only leaning blue by 8%.

That math says that Biden will only net 9,000 more votes from Reno and 60,000 votes from Vegas. Some from the others, sure, but not much at all. I think slowing the bleed is about all Biden can manage in NV. I wouldn't be surprised if it flips. CNN just mentioned that Biden's lead did expand when NV reported at noon today, but only by 4,000 votes.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

I'm coming up with around 58.5% of votes needed for trump to tie in Arizona.

 

[Keef]

I'm coming up with around 58.5% of votes needed for trump to tie in Arizona.

If you're really bored you could do it county by county and add up the final tallies. I'll be honest, I'm not gonna do that lol.

Here's an interesting observation. Lake Champlain splits VT and NY at the north end. I spent about a month exploring Burlington VT and spent some time in NY as well, particularly Plattsburgh, and Essex down to Ticonderoga. Tell you want, some of those northeast NY towns were real crapholes. You could see there was some boat money there, but the local townsfolk weren't the ones with the big boats. The NY side just looked a little bit ill-maintained compared to VT.

Lo and behold, the NY side of Lake Champlain apparently leans red while VT leans blue. Huh.

 

[TB]

41,305 for Pennsylvania @94%

 

[Grayfox]

Maybe states should do what Trump wants.

"Stop the counting"

Since Trump has 213 EC Votes and is leading in NC, GA, AK & PA he will end up with 268 EC Votes.
Biden is leading in AZ and NV and only needs 17 more EC votes, and AZ and NV and these two states will give him the win.

States need to teach the crooked republicans that support this behavior a lesson.

 

[Keef]

41,305 for Pennsylvania @94%

Old news. 36,572 now.

 

[TB]

Old news. 36,572 now.

Just saw that.

 

[Keef]

Just saw that.

I love the fact that we can barely keep up with the changes. This is fascinating.

Friendship ended with Nevada. Pennsylvania is my new friend.

 

[ROAD_DOGG33J]

If you're really bored you could do it county by county and add up the final tallies. I'll be honest, I'm not gonna do that lol.

I started that last night but called it quits. Still working since half my day was spent looking at results.

 

[Blitz24]

I love the fact that we can barely keep up with the changes. This is fascinating.

Friendship ended with Nevada. Pennsylvania is my new friend.

Nevada eventually will continue counting, once they figure out how to reboot their counting machine which froze because they spilled Mountain Dew on it.

 

[Keef]

It's that damned step 4 where they gotta repeat steps 1-3.

I just can't let this go lol.

 

[Northstar]

Old news. 36,572 now.

Down to 26,319 now.

 

[buickgnx88]

 

[Spacegoat]

Just out of interest. What's the count in Georgia looking like currently?

 

[Northstar]

Just out of interest. What's the count in Georgia looking like currently?

Trump: 2,447,343
Biden: 2,445,568

 

[Daz555]

Georgia - both candidates now on 46.4% with 99% reported!

Jo Jorgensen has laughed herself to death!

 

[Keef]

My sinus infection is on its way out finally. Never had a fever or sore throat, we gucci. Glad I can finally enjoy this madness with a beer or four.

Oh btw, Biden has now pulled a 4 million popular vote lead, with CA at only 77% counted.

 

[Biggles]

Just out of interest. What's the count in Georgia looking like currently?

Looking like ryzno's vote could decide it.

 

[Danoff]

Agreed, but his margin will be so slim that it could be effected by a recount.

CNN just reported a drop to1,797 in GA as I was typing.

NV is going to end up as tight as the others. Every red county in NV is even more red than it was in 2016 and we're talking an average lean of ~45%. Huge. Reno only has 16,000 more votes to count and is only leaning blue by 4%. Vegas has 111,000 votes left but is only leaning blue by 8%.

That math says that Biden will only net 9,000 more votes from Reno and 60,000 votes from Vegas. Some from the others, sure, but not much at all. I think slowing the bleed is about all Biden can manage in NV. I wouldn't be surprised if it flips. CNN just mentioned that Biden's lead did expand when NV reported at noon today, but only by 4,000 votes.

Nevada says it's 89% reported at 1,222,331 votes. That leaves about 134,456 votes outstanding. If we just look at the highly populated counties of Clark and Washoe (which are also the only democrat leaning counties), we have outstanding votes of 112,216 votes. So of the remaining votes, 83% come from counties which have been favoring Biden. That leaves Trump a voting pool of only 22,240 votes in counties which have been favoring him. I don't rate Trump's chances high in Nevada. He's currently down by 12k. If you didn't count Clark or Washoe at all (from here out) he might not net 12k.

 

[SlipZtrEm]

I watched that entire unhinged speech just now, mostly because it felt good to finish it, refresh the map, and see the gaps have gone down again.

GA is down to 2,500, and PA is 50,000. It’s gonna happen, only a matter of time now.

...then we have to deal with the reality of Trump having two months to break as much as he wants before leaving.

Two hours later and they’re down to 1,775 and 26,200. GA is going to be a three-digit margin for either side, isn’t it?

 

[Keef]

Oh no! It's over!

Trump gained 30 votes in Georgia!

 

[Danoff]

Two hours later and they’re down to 1,775 and 26,200. GA is going to be a three-digit margin for either side, isn’t it?

GA Clark county has about 4000 outstanding still. That ought to do it to put Biden over the edge, but I don't think it's going to break 1000 on the other side. Maaaybe.

 

[ryzno]

GA 1,805 Trump.

 

[Danoff]

Have we counted all of the individual electoral votes from nebraska and maine and whatnot? Because GA only offers a tie right now, and I'd like to know if there's 1 more EV hanging around.

 

[Keef]

Nate Silver is going to be so full of himself when PA flips.

Have we counted all of the individual electoral votes from nebraska and maine and whatnot? Because GA only offers a tie right now, and I'd like to know if there's 1 more EV hanging around.

Edit: I was thinking a tie at 270 which makes absolutely no sense

 

[Crash]

Have we counted all of the individual electoral votes from nebraska and maine and whatnot? Because GA only offers a tie right now, and I'd like to know if there's 1 more EV hanging around.

Those have all been accounted for and included in respective candidate EC vote totals.

 

[Grand Prix]

CBC are showing 264 ECV for Biden, he only needs Nevada to get 270. If Biden wins this way, Nebraska essentially decided the election with their split ECV.

 

[Keef]

CBC are showing 264 ECV for Biden, he only needs Nevada to get 270. If Biden wins this way, Nebraska essentially decided the election with their split ECV.

That's possible but it means they've called Arizona for Biden. It's still too close, and actually the count is trending toward Trump.

I personally think Pennsylvania will flip before Arizona can be called because the trend toward Biden in Pennsylvania has good math to support it. At that point Biden wins with 273, and Nate Silver can go to bed with a smirk on his face that Pennsylvania was indeed the tipping point.

 

[SlipZtrEm]

GA Clark county has about 4000 outstanding still. That ought to do it to put Biden over the edge, but I don't think it's going to break 1000 on the other side. Maaaybe.

Saw this and it got me thinking:



Given those numbers and the current trends* in each county, here’s what I’m seeing:

Clayton County: 4,355 - 3,697 Biden (84.9%) / 618 Trump (14.2%)

Cobb County: 700 - 394 Biden (56.3%) / 294 Trump (42%)

Floyd County: 444 - 126 Biden (28.4%) / 312 Trump (70.4%)

Forsyth County: 1,545 - 503 Biden (32.6%) / 1,016 Trump (65.8%)

Gwinnett County: 4,800 - 2,798 Biden (58.3%) / 1,939 Trump (40.4%)

Laurens County: 1,797 - 632 Biden (35.2%) / 1,151 Trump (64.1%)

Taylor County: 456 - 165 Biden (36.2%) / 286 Trump (62.9%)

Biden count: 8,315
Trump count: 5,616

That would swing it for Biden, by less than 1,000 total.

* - I realize this late in the counting the current percentages aren’t going to be very accurate, but it was a fun bit of math anyway.

 

[Tornado]

175k votes left total. 58k in Philadelphia alone. Only 22k votes behind.