Daily roulette is rigged.

[Stephan]

8 pages in and this is still going on?

 

[ASH32]

This thread could offer an interesting discussion because the daily roulette certainly isn't truly random and appears that it may be following some sort of script/pattern, so trying to find out what exactly that is has some merit. As usual @Famine is on top of all this and is sharing with us an info he has found out but that is all getting lost now with the rubbish.

Can we stop all the it's rigged until you prove it isn't and the it's not rigged until you prove it is stuff and just stick to posting your observations and any possible theories/patterns for us (mainly Famine) to study and debunk or maybe finally find out how this thing works. Not that it really matters because we've already established that we can't affect the outcome via our actions and also that the updates may (and may have already) change it anyway.

 

[hicker]

You started the thread with a claim. As has been stated multiple times now, you are the one who has to prove your claim, and if you cannot back up your original point you have nothing.

If you cannot understand this, then I am sorry but you cannot be helped.

Im telling you the results. I get only and only dupes for a straight month and all of them were n200-n300 or another gr. 3-4 car i already have. If you seriously think its still fair there is nothing i can do. There is absolutely nothing fair about it. Also crappy economics and micro transactions favors my claim even more.

 

[KinLM]

Already proven im wrong? Sorry i cant see any proof about fair daily roulette.

Then I will prove you wrong since you’re begging for it.

It would seem as though the daily roulette is based on an inverse function.

So, for a corvette GR3, you’d have something like 1/450,000. But for a 20M car, it would be 1/20,000,000

You could then create an algorithm to take the resulting fractions and create probabilities for them to show up.

You could also make a few tweaks to ensure that the go kart isn’t the only thing that shows up, maybe by capping the maximum probability of any vehicle.

This would provide for each vehicle to be possible to win, while still making it to where the ultra rare vehicles are very uncommon to come by.

Now, I challenge you to prove my theory wrong, as I just did to yours.

Good luck.

 

[hicker]

Then I will prove you wrong since you’re begging for it.

It would seem as though the daily roulette is based on an inverse function.

So, for a corvette GR3, you’d have something like 1/450,000. But for a 20M car, it would be 1/20,000,000

You could then create an algorithm to take the resulting fractions and create probabilities for them to show up.

You could also make a few tweaks to ensure that the go kart isn’t the only thing that shows up, maybe by capping the maximum probability of any vehicle.

This would provide for each vehicle to be possible to win, while still making it to where the ultra rare vehicles are very uncommon to come by.

Now, I challenge you to prove my theory wrong, as I just did to yours.

Good luck.

That doesnt prove me im wrong. Its just a claim that says im wrong. Try harder.

 

[KinLM]

That doesnt prove me im wrong. Its just a claim that says im wrong. Try harder.

Nope. It’s your turn to prove my theory wrong. Or at least to try.

If you fail to do so this time, then I will assume you are unable to and that you concede that my theory is correct.

Good luck.

 

[watto79]

hicker can you tell us all how many cars you have in your garage, and how many UNIQUE cars you have? i.e. how many of the 264(?) cars in the game you already have?

 

[hicker]

hicker can you tell us all how many cars you have in your garage, and how many UNIQUE cars you have? i.e. how many of the 264(?) cars in the game you already have?

Nearly all n class cars exception of aventador and 650s.
left some 1 or 2 gr.4 gr.3 cars.
Only have nsx concept in gr.2 class.
Half of the gr.1 cars.
Few vgt cars.
Daytona, Mark 4 and xj13.

But no game has to give me the cars i already have.So There is no way to earn them without buying them in brand cental.

Nope. It’s your turn to prove my theory wrong. Or at least to try.

If you fail to do so this time, then I will assume you are unable to and that you concede that my theory is correct.

Good luck.

When did you pass your turn so its my turn? Sorry i cant see it.

 

[KinLM]

Nearly all n class cars exception of aventador and 650s.
left some 1 or 2 gr.4 gr.3 cars.
Only have nsx concept in gr.2 class.
Half of the gr.1 cars.
Few vgt cars.
Daytona, Mark 4 and xj13.

But no game has to give me the cars i already have.So There is no way to earn them without buying them in brand cental.



When did you pass your turn so its my turn? Sorry i cant see it.

I didn’t pass it. I provided evidence to my theory. My theory lines up with exactly what you said. Many of the same cheaper cars, and almost never with the expensive ones.

Therefore, I say my theory is correct. If YOU disagree, then YOU prove me wrong, considering YOU said, and I quote “If you can’t prove a theory wrong then that means it’s true.”

I provided a theory and I believe I proved it right. If you disagree, then by YOUR logic, it is now your turn to prove me wrong

good luck, again

 

[hicker]

I didn’t pass it. I provided evidence to my theory. My theory lines up with exactly what you said. Many of the same cheaper cars, and almost never with the expensive ones.

Therefore, I say my theory is correct. If YOU disagree, then YOU prove me wrong, considering YOU said, and I quote “If you can’t prove a theory wrong then that means it’s true.”

I provided a theory and I believe I proved it right. If you disagree, then by YOUR logic, it is now your turn to prove me wrong

good luck, again

No one earned 20m cars after update 1.17.

 

[KinLM]

No one earned 20m cars after update 1.17.

1. That would actually strengthen my theory that it is set up to where the 20M cars are inversely common to their price.

2. Prove it.

 

[hicker]

1. That would actually strengthen my theory that it is set up to where the 20M cars are inversely common to their price.

2. Prove it.

If something has 0% chance it means its rigged not random.

 

[KinLM]

If something has 0% chance it means its rigged not random.

Prove that it is a 0% chance and not a 0.00000001% chance, as something like my theory would suggest.

I wish I believed that you knew Calculus, because I could sure explain this in a lovely way if you did.

 

[Famine]

When did you pass your turn so its my turn? Sorry i cant see it.

Yeah, you're just trolling at this point.

You made the initial claim. The onus is on you to to present evidence for that claim, and not for anyone else to present evidence against it. At the moment your claim hinges on the notion that you haven't received any cars new to your garage (which has around 80% of all the unique cars in the game already, according to your estimate) for a month. That's not evidence for your claim.

And it's not a theory, it's a hypothesis. It doesn't become theory until it's been tested - which is why untestable hypotheses (like Russell's Teapot) aren't good enough to be considered theory.

 

[hicker]

Prove that it is a 0% chance and not a 0.00000001% chance, as something like my theory would suggest.

I wish I believed that you knew Calculus, because I could sure explain this in a lovely way if you did.

Its not even 0.000000001%.Its 0%.

Yeah, you're just trolling at this point.

You made the initial claim. The onus is on you to to present evidence for that claim, and not for anyone else to present evidence against it. At the moment your claim hinges on the notion that you haven't received any cars new to your garage (which has around 80% of all the unique cars in the game already, according to your estimate) for a month. That's not evidence for your claim.

And it's not a theory, it's a hypothesis. It doesn't become theory until it's been tested - which is why untestable hypotheses (like Russell's Teapot) aren't good enough to be considered theory.

At least I have Proven crappy economics and microtransactions to defend my theory. What have you got?

 

[ROCKET JOE]

 

[Furinkazen]

If something has 0% chance it means its rigged not random.

I had a 330 P4 last week in my daily workout.

There goes your theory down in flames.

 

[hicker]

I had a 330 P4 last week in my daily workout.

There goes your theory down in flames.

And where is the proof that you got that car in the last week?

 

[George Jakob]

I had a 330 P4 last week in my daily workout.

There goes your theory down in flames.

Did you save the clip?.

 

[Furinkazen]

And where is the proof that you got that car in the last week?

I didn't get it, it was in my workout. Didn't say I got it.

Stop being such a salty child.

Did you save the clip?.

No, not sure why I would need to.

 

[hicker]

Ahh as usual another guy claims he got a 20m car but no proof as always. As always.

 

[George Jakob]

No, not sure why I would need to.

Oh ***** now he won't beliave you.

 

[Furinkazen]

Oh ***** now he won't beliave you.

I know such a shame.

 

[KinLM]

Its not even 0.000000001%.Its 0%.



At least I have Proven crappy economics and microtransactions to defend my theory. What have you got?

It isn’t 0%, as somebody just proved they received one.

Again, sounds like it’s closer to 0.0001%, which, again, would line up with my hypothesis.

So now, PROVE that it is a 0% chance, even though I don’t think you can since somebody has received one, which would thus make it greater than 0%

Good luck.

 

[Furinkazen]

Incidentally my 330 P4 I received in a daily workout about 6 months ago. I've seen it 3 times since and the XJ13 twice and never the MK Iv.

Also consider with the game getting more cars every update your chances of it even appearing in the daily spin decrease each time.

 

[Famine]

At least I have Proven crappy economics and microtransactions to defend my theory.

Hypothesis - and what is the connection between "crappy economics and microtransactions" and the daily marathon carousel?

What have you got?

These posts:

Next time you get a car on the roulette, reset the console before it saves. Boot it up again and you'll get the same four cars (in a different order) and win the same one (likely after a different number of lights).

It's just straight pre-determined.

I got something I didn't own on Tuesday. And most of what I've got through the "roulette" is cars I didn't own, because I've barely bought any cars and I've got almost all of them...

I've got nearly all of the cars in GT Sport through the carousel. I've barely bought any of them - so it quite clearly has been giving me cars I don't already have. That notwithstanding, I've got nearly all of the cars in GT Sport and it gave me a car I didn't already have on Tuesday this week.

Although I'm in several minds about the potential variables involved, some people have told me that you also get the same cars in the same order if you restart the game from scratch following a corrupt save... but only on the same console. I've not tested it myself yet, as I don't really want to force a save file corruption even on a test account.

It feels quite similar to the GT5 UCD in many respects. For that, the console/user combination seemed to generate a seed number that placed you at a point on a 2.147-billion day long predetermined list, which then advanced according to the number of in-game "days" you'd played. You could change your point on the list by changing to a different console with the same user, while different users on the same console would have their own start points.

In any case, it seems like the user has no influence whatsoever over either the cars on the carousel or the car awarded each time (and they definitely cannot influence which one of the four the game picks).

Let the carousel spin, then quit the game as it reveals the car - before it saves. Reboot and the game will instantly go back to the carousel, and it will have the exact same four cars (usually in a different order) and will select the same car.

There is no combination of user inputs that will generate a different outcome, and it has always been this way.

It does not appear to be the case. Some users (presumably like me, with high-functioning Gran Turismo autism) have noted receiving exactly the same cars again after restarting from a corrupted game save. I've never tested it out myself though, as I don't really want to force a save corruption on my console... although I do have another console to muck around with, so it may be something I do over Christmas.

As far as I can tell, the only variable is either the number of game days logged in or number of marathons completed - like GT5's UCD, it seems to start from an initial fixed seed that's dependent on the user account ID and console ID (as I've also heard reports of different prize cars on different consoles with the same account, just like GT5's UCD).

I'm also not sure how you're unaware of the fact that even with random chance, the likelihood of you getting a new car from the 20% you don't own is much lower than when you didn't own any...

... not that there's any evidence of random chance.


Perhaps you can perform the force-save corruption trial on your console (I was going to do a new profile, run five days of daily marathon, force corrupt the save then run five days of daily marathon again), as this is something that you appear to be passionate about.

 

[George Jakob]

I just saw a Cobra Daytona Coupe appearing (uploading proof now) @hicker here

 

[watto79]

Nearly all n class cars exception of aventador and 650s.
left some 1 or 2 gr.4 gr.3 cars.
Only have nsx concept in gr.2 class.
Half of the gr.1 cars.
Few vgt cars.
Daytona, Mark 4 and xj13.

But no game has to give me the cars i already have.So There is no way to earn them without buying them in brand cental.



When did you pass your turn so its my turn? Sorry i cant see it.

So do you understand that with all these cars you have, the most likely outcome from the DWG is that you will get a duplicate? That's how chance and probability work. At the number of cars you own, getting a duplicate is a more likely outcome than getting something you don't own.

The odds of you getting something new get smaller and smaller with the more cars you have. Imagine you only needed a single car to come up. The odds of getting that 1 car are less than 0.4% each time you get the DWG. That's tiny.

What you are seeing is exactly what you would expect to see from something with random chance.

Anyway, I have no doubt this won't change your mind. I'm done with this thread. I hope you can still find enjoyment with this game despite how you feel about it. If you can't then maybe move on to something else.

All the best.

 

[snowgt]

Incidentally my 330 P4 I received in a daily workout about 6 months ago. I've seen it 3 times since and the XJ13 twice and never the MK Iv.

Also consider with the game getting more cars every update your chances of it even appearing in the daily spin decrease each time.

I think you got it wrong. The consensus seems to be that 6 months ago, it was possible to receive the 20m cars in the daily workout, but it changed in 1.17(?), and ever since then you might see it on the wheel, but you will never get it. (because it's predetermined which car you get before the wheel appears and the rest of the cars are just random fillers)

To add to the conspiracy theories, I have received mostly crap and mostly crap I already owned over a longer period of time now, and then suddenly I get this...

I was missing 32 cars, 3 of which allegedly are not available as prize cars anymore.
On my 300th log-in day, I receive the Porsche 919 Gr.1 (didn't have before).
On my 301st log-in day, I receive the Corvette Gr.3 (didn't have before).
On my 302nd log-in day, I receive the F-type Gr.3 (didn't have before).

I know it's just pure chance (or a pseudo-random sequence calculated out of my console's serial number and/or something other "almost" random seed), but what are the odds??

 

[hicker]

I just saw a Cobra Daytona Coupe appearing (uploading proof now) @hicker here

It just appears as you can see. You wont get it.

Hypothesis - and what is the connection between "crappy economics and microtransactions" and the daily marathon carousel?

These posts:






I'm also not sure how you're unaware of the fact that even with random chance, the likelihood of you getting a new car from the 20% you don't own is much lower than when you didn't own any...

... not that there's any evidence of random chance.


Perhaps you can perform the force-save corruption trial on your console (I was going to do a new profile, run five days of daily marathon, force corrupt the save then run five days of daily marathon again), as this is something that you appear to be passionate about.

Cars that came are usually low priced cars. I barely see anything more then 1m and game mostly gives you an gr.4 gr.3 which is dupe.