Presidential Election: 2012
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Biggles already pointed out how overtly useless your "disprove logic with logic" exercise is.
No he didn't.
This is still the 2012 Presidential Election thread, not the trolling thread. If you want to discuss the election, do so here. If you want to keep trolling, do not do so here.
Keef
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"President Obama once said he wants everybody in America to go to college. What a snob"
"I don’t believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute,” he said."
"True happiness comes from doing God’s will,”
Sorry Mr. Santorum, but this country was not founded upon maniacal Catholic extremeism. I'm sure the fair God that you attempt to represent is laughing at you right now because you don't realize that you're going to hell for misrepresenting Him and just being a complete lunatic in general.
"I don’t believe in an America where the separation of church and state is absolute,” he said."
"True happiness comes from doing God’s will,”
Sorry Mr. Santorum, but this country was not founded upon maniacal Catholic extremeism. I'm sure the fair God that you attempt to represent is laughing at you right now because you don't realize that you're going to hell for misrepresenting Him and just being a complete lunatic in general.
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I did my part in voting for Ron Paul today in the Michigan primary, but, apologies all around if Santorum manages to win in this state tonight. The douchebag is apparently in the same city as I am this evening. I'm not happy.
Danoff
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Can someone break down Ron Paul's chances for me at this point? I'm pretty well checked out of the primaries, but I'm still marginally interested in Ron Paul's progress - the media doesn't cover it though.
At this point I think the ticket that republicans would salivate for is a Romney/Paul ticket. If that happens Obama wins though.
At this point I think the ticket that republicans would salivate for is a Romney/Paul ticket. If that happens Obama wins though.
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The caucus states provide 431 delegates. If Paul can manage 75% of those delegates - as his own numbers suggest - he scores 323 delegates, or about 30% of the total he needs. Even if he only nets 25% of the 1,855 delegates from primaries - assigned proportionally according to votes - he's up to 787 delegates. That's not enough to secure the nomination unopposed, but that's not the point (well... it's half of the point
You've described the best-case scenario for Ron Paul, but I doubt very much that he'll get anything like the number of delegates you're projecting. 75% of delegates from caucus states and 25% of the remainder are both highly optimistic. About 300 of the remaining 1,855 delegates are Winner Take All primaries, which Ron Paul has little chance of winning, let alone a quarter of them. The rest are determined by proportional vote, where Ron Paul is averaging about 18% of the popular vote (based on results so far). Based on that assessment, he can maybe expect to get around 280 delegates on top of what he can get from the caucus states. Even at a very optimistic 75% of those, that gives him a total of just about 600. At a more realistic but still optimistic 50%, it's only 500. That is still enough to ensure that neither Romney or Santorum can win the nomination outright, but it is nowhere near enough to qualify Ron Paul as a serious challenger IMO. I think the Guardian's assessment that I posted up here last week was pretty good - Paul will probably have a very influential role in determining who is going to win the nomination (and he's less likely to support Santorum than Romney), but I seriously doubt that a candidate who cannot even muster 20% of the Republican popular vote will end up running against Obama, no matter how well Paul's strategy works out.
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His own numbers suggest his caucus delegates are running those levels - and he wouldn't even need a 10% of remaining Primary delegates to prevent anyone winning outright and get himself to the Convention.
His only problem with the popular vote is that people who would vote for him don't vote for him because they don't believe he can win. More needs to be made of his caucus successes to remind people that he can and he will make more of the primaries.
His only problem with the popular vote is that people who would vote for him don't vote for him because they don't believe he can win. More needs to be made of his caucus successes to remind people that he can and he will make more of the primaries.
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No-one knows exactly how the caucus delegate counts will pan out yet, so it doesn't really matter if Ron Paul's own campaign believe they have 50 or 75% of the delegates in the bag... they don't. But even if they can get those numbers, Paul's share of the popular vote is simply not enough to beat Romney. At best he can use his presence at the convention to win policy concessions from Romney - but I just cannot see how a candidate with just 10-20% support from the entire party can hope to lead that party against Obama.
It's not his only problem - I'm sure his views have as much to do with his popularity (or lack of it) than anything else.
Dotini
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http://www.thestatecolumn.com/artic...he-first-time-nationally/#showr#ixzz1nf0f2bTD
Here's a shocking new national Rasmussen Poll of Dems, Republicans and Independents showing Paul possibly catching fire with large numbers of voters. I would not have thought it possible, but maybe it is?
Respectfully,
Steve
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I wouldn't read too much into a single poll - atleast 5 other current polls on the same topic have Obama ahead with an average lead of 7%. These polls don't give a good indication of how the candidate is favoured by his or her own party, since the majority of people will be voting according to party lines anyway...
Paul always seem to poll well, especially on 'Paul friendly' news outlets and websites. On the page you linked to, for example, a staggering 73% of people think Paul will win the GOP nomination. And this is a pretty atypical result - 73% is actually pretty low for him... normally Paul's share of the vote is so high, even Kim Jong-Il would be envious.
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Umm... in the caucuses whose delegates have already been assigned they can.
And yet David Cameron. He polled not even 30% in the first round of ballots amongst his fellow Tory MPs (putting him in second place, behind David Davis).
Now admittedly Cameron only had to turn up as he was fighting a General Election against a man who'd presided over a massive economic crash but... no, hang on, there's no end to that sentence.
A point of view that makes very little sense - given that he effectively promises only to do things that the Big Bit Of Paper With The Rules On says he can do and won't do anything that it says he can't, and has a track record of doing exactly that.
Then again, people will always vote for the guy who promises to break the rules and give them other people's stuff - the fewer people you promise to take from and the more you promise to give to, the more votes you can get.
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Keef
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Luckily, Ron Paul would alienate his entire core that has supported him for many years by doing such a thing. Romney can't get the numbers to beat Obama without people like me, that's a fact, so unless Ron Paul gets the nomination it is almost guaranteed that Obama will have another term.
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There's delegates, delegates and delegates.
In Nevada, for example, all the delegates have already been assigned. However, those delegates then vote for other delegates at their County Conventions. The delegates elected at the County Conventions then vote for other delegates at the State Convention (in May) and it's those delegates who go to the National Convention in August to vote for the appropriate candidate.
A caucus-elected delegate for Ron Paul will vote for a County delegate for Ron Paul, who'll vote for a State delegate for Ron Paul who will then vote for Ron Paul at the National Convention.
No. I don't either.
In Nevada, for example, all the delegates have already been assigned. However, those delegates then vote for other delegates at their County Conventions. The delegates elected at the County Conventions then vote for other delegates at the State Convention (in May) and it's those delegates who go to the National Convention in August to vote for the appropriate candidate.
A caucus-elected delegate for Ron Paul will vote for a County delegate for Ron Paul, who'll vote for a State delegate for Ron Paul who will then vote for Ron Paul at the National Convention.
No. I don't either.
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Yeh, I'm really talking about the final delegate count at the National Convention level. The Paul campaign may be slightly underestimating their opponents though, and it would make alot of sense if the other candidates are advising their campaigns to follow suit and not let Paul supporters walk away with a disproportionate number of delegate slots from future caucuses. What isn't at all clear is how the number of delegates at the district and state level eventually translates into delegates in the final analysis, though - hence why I am skeptical of the 50-75% claims being made by Paul's campaign.
Keef
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The other campaigns probably are advising their delegates not to fall for the Paul scheme. Problem is, Paul supporters are the only ones who actually care about the process and how it relates to their cause. That is shown by the fact that so many people vote for Romney or Santorum because they "think he can win". Is that all the reason they have? Usually it is the only reason they have. These people don't care about anything but paying their bills on time. I know this because I live and work with these people, and I've tried for years now to convince them to follow my lead instead of relying on their 50+ years of "life experience". In most cases it has worked; even the manliest of Harley guys will eventually admit he was wrong when he gets tired of losing all the arguments to a kid.
Joey D
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I'm not sure what the basis for voting for Romney or Santorum is, all they've done is campaigned on the platform that Obama is bad and not really given any real solutions how they plan to fix things. You also have moral issues, guided by religion, thrown in their two. I agree I'm not a fan of everything Obama has done, but to just do the exact opposite won't fix anything either.
While I am no Ron Paul fan, he has at least provided solutions to the problem, whether one agrees with them or not. I'd rather have what he's dishing up over simply going against everything Obama has done. At least progress can be made, despite if it's the right path or not.
Either way though, I don't think the GOP has an electable candidate and doesn't have one to win against Obama either. Their party is too divided between subsections which is going to result in less votes. I'm sure many Paul supports will vote for whoever the Libertarian candidate is coming November instead of giving it to Romney or Santorum. The worse case scenario for the GOP is if Paul runs as a third party, that alone will seal the deal for Obama to win.
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But following the rules doesn't allow for bombing other countries by executive order or creating laws usually only seen in a theocracy. Unfortunately there are a number of Republicans who think war is security and have extreme evangelical Christian values that they cannot separate from politics. It is hard to miss that Santorum actually gained support while going on insane religious rants about everything from contraception to abortion to homosexuality and separation of church and state. Santorum found away to make Romney's religion an issue without mentioning Romney's religion. By making his religion a huge talking point he has drawn the comparison.
What really disturbs me is that he is pulling in a lot of evangelical Christian votes from people who would not let Obama or Romney get away with this speech from 2008:
They are taking on the same election strategy used by Democrats in 2004 and 2008. Anyone but Bush has become anyone but Obama. Its like watching two kids in a fight that eventually degrades to nothing but, "I know you are but what am I?" being said over and over again.
EDIT:
So, am I the only person who sees a double standard with this video from the Obama campaign?
I doubt White Americans for Mitt Romney would go over too well.
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BobK
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Nope, you're not the only one. If one were to substitute the word "white" for "black" in that video, people would be screaming racism.
Precisely.
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