Read today that Romney has hit 'the magic number'. Don't know if it is accurate though.
Thoughts?
Technically he hasn't - yet. The magic number is 1,144
hard/bound delegates - that is, delegates that will go to the GOP convention in August who must vote for Romney. He doesn't have that number yet, since the majority of bound delegates for Texas (as well as some other states) are not yet decided. According to
this site (which has been the most accurate source for delegate counts throughout the campaign so far), Romney has reached the magic 1,144 number on
soft delegates only (that is both bound and
projected delegates), but he still falls a bit short on bound delegates - for the time being anyway.
However, Ron Paul supporters have a sneaky strategy, and are quietly filling quite alot of Romney's bound delegate slots with their own supporters... that means that a significant number of Romney's 'in-the-bag' delegates are not actually Romney supporters, and hence could pose a problem at the GOP convention (although they probably won't - see below). Since they are bound to Romney, they cannot vote for Ron Paul - but, as far as I understand it anyway, they might be able to abstain. While this won't help Ron Paul's vote tally, it just might be enough to prevent Romney from scoring 1,144 in the GOP convention i.e. There could be 1,400 delegates bound to Romney, but if only 1,100 of them actually vote, then Romney will not win on the first ballot. If it goes to further rounds, all delegates become unbound and then they can vote for whomever they want... hence, this is Ron Paul's only hope of snatching an unlikely victory.
However, my understanding is that this is not only unlikely (i.e. Romney is likely to have more than enough real supporters to win outright on the first ballot anyway), but it would also involve individual Ron Paul supporters breaking GOP state rules, and hence leave them open to the possibility of fines or other punishments. Ron Paul supporters cite 'Rule 38' in the hope that it means that there is actually no such thing as a bound delegate, but that is apparently
not correct.
edit: You will notice that the mainstream media are declaring a final Romney victory today, but that is because they are not making (and never have made) a distinction between soft and hard delegates, hence they are assuming that the soft delegate counts (which are bound plus projected delegates) are completely accurate... they aren't though. In actual fact, even the hard/bound delegate counts may change for a number of reasons. That said, Romney still has a few hundred guaranteed hard/bound delegates to come - 262 from the remaining 'winner-takes-all' states, and another 100 from superdelegates, so Romney will comfortably take
atleast 1400 bound delegates to the convention.