The GTP Unofficial 2020 US Elections Thread
- Thread starter Sanji Himura
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- Alabamistan
In a little bit of local/national election news from here in Alabama, our disgraced and deposed former judge Roy "Colonel Stonewall, look at the size of my monument, federal orders what federal orders?, get them gays out of here, banned from a mall" Moore was squashed in his attempt to once again infiltrate the US Senate. Now maybe he will slither back under whatever 19th century rock he came out of and disappear from the political stage.
Joey D
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It's always a good year to vote third party if you agree with their platform, where it's Libertarian, Green, Constitution, whatever. I hope someone can gain the 15% needed in the near future and I really don't care what party they're from. While I don't agree with much of the Green Party's platform, I'd certainly welcome them into the mix.
Weirdly with the Libertarian party, Vermin Supreme actually won the primary in New Hampshire. If there's one thing this country needs, it's a president with a boot on his head.
Danoff
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The whole Biden surge puts me in a bit of a bind. I was solidly going to vote Libertarian in a Bernie vs. Trump race. I haven't tried to figure out whether I can support Biden. But if he wins the candidacy, there is a possibility that I will cast my first ever vote for a democrat for president, breaking a streak of voting 3rd party that has spanned 20 years, and upending decades of me personally despising Biden.
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It kind of makes one wonder, what the Trump campaign knew, or at least suspected all along; that Joe Biden would always end up being the front runner and potentially Trump's biggest challenger. It's no coincidence that our sitting President made such an effort to find dirt on Joe Biden and if not bring him down, at least sow doubt in people's minds.
Though I didn't particularly care of the format of the debates, and thought they did little to highlight any of the candidates potential in office, I thought Joe came across as borderline senile at times and my overall opinion of him dropped significantly, based on how he coped (or didn't) under pressure. Although it must be hard when you're up against a natural and smooth orator like Pete Buttigeig. I must say I'm a bit surprised that he's turned the tables. And I think the endorsement from those dropping out will eventually spell the end of Sander's campaign.
Though I didn't particularly care of the format of the debates, and thought they did little to highlight any of the candidates potential in office, I thought Joe came across as borderline senile at times and my overall opinion of him dropped significantly, based on how he coped (or didn't) under pressure. Although it must be hard when you're up against a natural and smooth orator like Pete Buttigeig. I must say I'm a bit surprised that he's turned the tables. And I think the endorsement from those dropping out will eventually spell the end of Sander's campaign.
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- mustafur
You need 15% to get a delegate, so it's wrong to just add delegates you have to add percentages of the vote, even if only half of those voters got to Bernie(which the polls say its about 7/10 voters) he wins Texas easily gets way more delegates in California and wins Massachusetts, Minnesota with the loses being much closer in states that he lost.
It would of gave him well over well over 150 delegates alot of which would come from Biden, it's like the 3rd party vote splitting one side.
Now that Bloomberg dropped out and Warren stays in Bernie is effectively finished, If Warren ends up in Bidens admin then that would be confirmation of Controlled opposition as far as I could see.
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the interesting part is this gives trump a lot more fuel to throw on the fire during the debates. I'd be really surprised if he doesn't immediately jump on the controlled opposition argument. If the DNC is good at anything it's denial and self sabotage
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He's not "senile", just a little ... slow. Not sure it matters that much, it's the people he has around him that will count. I can't seem him running for a second term, so the VP choice will be important. I could see the possible advantages of choosing Warren, although Buttigieg would be a logical VP in terms of political stance. IMO Biden is going to need a strong VP in order to go up successfully against Trump.
I think what it also demonstrates to me is the deeply rooted misogyny in American society. Hillary Clinton was in every way a stronger candidate than Joe Biden. She needed the whole weight of the Democratic establishment behind her to come out ahead of Bernie Sanders. Good 'ol Joe has come out ahead in spite of his own worst efforts. Being a strong woman is just a tough sell to a big chunk of the American public.
Danoff
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I'm not totally following. You're saying that in states where she picked up zero she might have "denied" Bernie some delegates? Most of the states I added up she got at least 1 delegate in, meaning that the 15% issue wasn't in play.
She even got a delegate in Texas. I think you're cherry picking to say that Texas could have been swayed for Bernie if Warren dropped out but ignore the fact that Bloomberg got more votes in Texas than Warren.
I'm not seeing the case here. Mostly people are saying that Warren benefited most from others dropping out right before super Tuesday. Pete's votes likely mostly went to warren (apparently). Her demographics probably changed substantially right before super tuesday, meaning even your 7/10ths number may be way off.
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The good thing for Bernie when it comes to the debates is with less people now Biden will get more speaking time which will hurt his chances every time he opens his mouth and continues to look senile.
I'm not even trying to be ageist, Bernie is older then Biden but Biden is clearly lost his mental faculties at this point, he mixes up names constantly, and half his sentences are a mumble, there is no way he could even do more then 4 year year term if he wins.
I'm not even trying to be ageist, Bernie is older then Biden but Biden is clearly lost his mental faculties at this point, he mixes up names constantly, and half his sentences are a mumble, there is no way he could even do more then 4 year year term if he wins.
Keef
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Jess Sessions almost won a Senate seat in Alabama, oh my god.
I've been to Alabama. Several times. Have any of you been to Alabama?
It lives up to the hype, let's just say that. Once you've been there, their electoral choices make perfectly good sense.
In MA, Bernie was only down by 90,000 votes but Warren got 276,000. And he was only down 8 delegates but Warren got 17. Even if only 50% of her supporters switch to Bernie, he wins the state and it's news and momentum. But it's more like 80% of her supporters stick with Bernie according to polls. It also would've swayed Minnesota and Texas. In Texas, she may have only gotten 1 district delegate but she gathered 226,000 votes, while Bernie was only down 70,000.
Because she wasn't eligible for many delegates anyway, her vote count is what matters. Because Bernie was already eligible, adding even 50% of her vote count to Bernie increases his delegate haul significantly. Even in Oklahoma where she got 0 delegates, she got 40,000 votes...while Bernie was down 40,000 votes. That would've evened the haul between him and Biden. Maine is another...everybody thought New England was a shoe-in, but Warren got 30,000 votes in Maine while Bernie is only down 2,000.
Warren's impact on Bernie's total votes and delegates was enormous, directly swaying at least three state wins and increasing Biden's lead in a couple close ones. She only got 40 something delegates because she wasn't eligible for statewide delegates in more than half the states. Her 40 might have turned into 80+ for Bernie, giving him the lead and the "win" as the media would call it.
She knew exactly what she was doing. Totally unviable. Made Bernie's job that much harder and swayed media coverage heavily in Biden's direction. There's no logical strategy to her campaign's insistence on continuing except to sabotage Bernie, there's no logical reason to sabotage progressives unless she stands to benefit somehow (Biden's VP), and if she doesn't give it up sometime today it'll be offensive to millions of people.
I've been to Alabama. Several times. Have any of you been to Alabama?
It lives up to the hype, let's just say that. Once you've been there, their electoral choices make perfectly good sense.
In order to get statewide delegates you need at least 15% of the total vote. Warren did get some district delegates in almost every state, but only got statewide delegates in a few. I think Califonia had nearly 150 delegates reserved for statewide percentage above 15%.
In MA, Bernie was only down by 90,000 votes but Warren got 276,000. And he was only down 8 delegates but Warren got 17. Even if only 50% of her supporters switch to Bernie, he wins the state and it's news and momentum. But it's more like 80% of her supporters stick with Bernie according to polls. It also would've swayed Minnesota and Texas. In Texas, she may have only gotten 1 district delegate but she gathered 226,000 votes, while Bernie was only down 70,000.
Because she wasn't eligible for many delegates anyway, her vote count is what matters. Because Bernie was already eligible, adding even 50% of her vote count to Bernie increases his delegate haul significantly. Even in Oklahoma where she got 0 delegates, she got 40,000 votes...while Bernie was down 40,000 votes. That would've evened the haul between him and Biden. Maine is another...everybody thought New England was a shoe-in, but Warren got 30,000 votes in Maine while Bernie is only down 2,000.
Warren's impact on Bernie's total votes and delegates was enormous, directly swaying at least three state wins and increasing Biden's lead in a couple close ones. She only got 40 something delegates because she wasn't eligible for statewide delegates in more than half the states. Her 40 might have turned into 80+ for Bernie, giving him the lead and the "win" as the media would call it.
She knew exactly what she was doing. Totally unviable. Made Bernie's job that much harder and swayed media coverage heavily in Biden's direction. There's no logical strategy to her campaign's insistence on continuing except to sabotage Bernie, there's no logical reason to sabotage progressives unless she stands to benefit somehow (Biden's VP), and if she doesn't give it up sometime today it'll be offensive to millions of people.
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What Danoff said. I don't know why you are obsessed with the impact of Warren. The votes going Bloomberg's way had more effect on the delegate count than the votes for Warren ... & it's pretty much a certainty that the vast majority of Bloomberg voters would not have gone for Bernie. Interestingly, my friends in Colorado apparently voted for Bloomberg because they didn't believe Bernie could win against Trump, didn't think a gay man, or a woman could win against Trump & had given up on Biden.
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But Warren had no path before Super Tuesday and Buttigieg who was already ahead of Warren dropped out, Bloomberg wasn't going to drop out before Super Tuesday because he hasn't seen how voters react to his campaign yet.
If she was on the progressive wing of the party she surely could of saw this coming(all the polling data said this was the case), and her intentions now looks completely misguided, the damage has been done.
Danoff
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Exactly what damage has been done? She siphoned votes from Pete and Amy (although they still got votes because a lot of people cast ballots before they dropped). If she'd dropped, she also still would have gotten votes, but what she picked up from Pete and Amy might have gone to Biden. And some of her core supporters might have gone to Biden as well. Bloomberg, folks are thinking, shares more of a demographic with Biden.
Still not seeing the case.
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Warren had no chance pre-Super Tuesday, and Bloomberg hadn't faced the voters yet, it was clear she had to drop out when Pete and Amy did if she wants her agenda to go forward, it does look like in those states the Bloomberg voters going to Biden would be more but Bloomberg wasn't going to drop out because he didn't face a voter, that was obvious.
Danoff
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If you take Bloomberg and add it to Biden, and Warren and add it to Sanders, Biden still wins Minnesota, Bernie picks up Mass (barely).
Pete and Amy still got votes, a lot of them. Warren would have gotten a lot of votes if she'd dropped out when Pete and Amy did. In my personal opinion, Bloomberg should have known he was out before then. Warren actually had a legit campaign at one point. Bloomberg has always been unlikely.
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OK. You could make the argument that Bloomberg wanted to test the results of his spending spree, but the effect is the same: Biden "unfairly" loses votes to Bloomberg in the same way that Bernie loses votes "unfairly" to Warren. You're trying to manipulate the logic & the "morality" of the voting in a way that favours your particular candidate. What matters, in the end, is what is the will of Democratic voters? The answer appears to be (possibly) that the majority don't want Bernie to take on Trump.
Joey D
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I can't in good faith vote for Biden, I don't like him, I don't think his health is that great, he doesn't seem super sharp, and I think he's shady.
If you don't mind me asking, would your vote for Biden be to purely get Trump out of office? I can support that position, but I still don't think I could bring myself to check Biden's box on my ballot.
Dotini
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It would probably be fairly safe to put Biden in office. He can always be immediately removed under the 25th amendment by own cabinet if they feel he doesn't know where he is or what he's doing. The choice of veep will obviously need to be a good one.
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Wall Street gets a Biden Bounce:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ens-surprise-super-tuesday-lead-idUSKBN20R1WM
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-...ens-surprise-super-tuesday-lead-idUSKBN20R1WM
Danoff
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I still don't know if i can do it. But i'm considering it.
Biden is a much closer fit for me than Trump at this point. It's not the greatest fit, the best fit is the Libertarian candidate (unless it's Vermin). But the degree matters here. If degree didn't matter, I would (potentially) never vote for anyone but myself. I have to get very acquainted with Biden's platform to figure out if I can support him, I may decide that I can't.
Biden being old is not a problem for me. To the extent that it means he gets less done, or a VP takes his place, I'm generally fine with that. I haven't seen anything concretely shady, but I'm new to considering him.
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My big takeaway from yesterday:
Biden cleans up in non-California suburbs - just look at his margins in the Dallas Fort Worth area! If there was any single bloc of voters that I would say will be determinate in 2020 GE, it's them.
He really, badly, desperately needs a good running mate to succeed against Trump - provided he wins the primary. The accusations of him being senile will only get worse. Pete seems like the obvious choice to me, but his stunning lack of support from minorities (which I think is mostly bad-hype) could be problematic. Franken. Franken. Franken!
Biden would be a totally average & unremarkable President, IMO, but I think that is precisely what we need right now. Everyone just needs to chill the **** out for 4 years.
It occurred to me yesterday that the internal split in the democratic primary brought to mind the external division between the GOP and Democratic party back in the early 2000s - Policy differences articulated in mostly good faith. That could be rose-tinted spectacles. It's comforting to me that at least one party hasn't completely homogenized around a single cult figure and I hope it stays that way.
Biden cleans up in non-California suburbs - just look at his margins in the Dallas Fort Worth area! If there was any single bloc of voters that I would say will be determinate in 2020 GE, it's them.
He really, badly, desperately needs a good running mate to succeed against Trump - provided he wins the primary. The accusations of him being senile will only get worse. Pete seems like the obvious choice to me, but his stunning lack of support from minorities (which I think is mostly bad-hype) could be problematic. Franken. Franken. Franken!
Biden would be a totally average & unremarkable President, IMO, but I think that is precisely what we need right now. Everyone just needs to chill the **** out for 4 years.
It occurred to me yesterday that the internal split in the democratic primary brought to mind the external division between the GOP and Democratic party back in the early 2000s - Policy differences articulated in mostly good faith. That could be rose-tinted spectacles. It's comforting to me that at least one party hasn't completely homogenized around a single cult figure and I hope it stays that way.
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Keef
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And who lives in those suburbs?
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It seems to me that there are three possible routes to success for the Democrats:
1) Turn out the base in larger numbers than 2016.
2) Convert blue collar Trump voters back to the Democrats.
3) Increase support among moderate (suburban) voters.
1) Bernie has done well but hasn't appreciably increased turnout among young/progressive voters.
2) Biden has more appeal for blue collar voters than HRC.
3) Biden is likely to pick up support from moderate voters disgusted with Trump's persona & rhetoric, many of whom would have traditionally voted Republican.
2) & 3) are likely to be more significant than 1).
Can Biden choose a "champion" to represent him in the debates?
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Do we even need debates? I'm sure neither one of them (Trump and Biden) are particularly excited about doing debates...and is it really going to change anyone's mind?
But yeah, they should allow substitutions.
Yeah, well it's not going to be a battle of ideas is it? Trump's going to launch a full-scale offensive on Biden. I don't fancy being Hunter Biden in the coming months.
On the other hand, I would love to see Bernie debate Trump.
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