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I myself, doubt that it would ever have been a one stopper.What I'm really curious about was whether a one stop strategy for Mercedes was ever in the cards. It might've been for Bottas -and him blocking Vettel also helped Hamilton down the road - but now we'll never know. The mediums looked awful out there so I doubt it ever was.
Without the VCS, I'd say Hamilton closes the gap but making the pass happen would've been quite difficult.
I think Lewis may have been able to close the gap a bit more to Vettel, had the VSC not been implemented. Probably to the point of forcing Vettel to stop first. Then maybe Mercedes would have brought Lewis in and stuck him on the softs, whilst Vettel was on the mediums. I think this would have probably made it a big ask for Lewis to take back the lead, but not out of the realms of possibility. I'd like to think he could have still done something.