The '13 driver transfer discussion/speculation thread op updated 16/10

[Pupik]

If you could find hyperkinetic preteens with lightning-quick reflexes physically strong enough to race a Formula One car, there's no doubt teams would be auditioning them.

Well, there was a time in F1 when most new drivers were in the age range of 24-28...most of the 1950s-1990s, in fact. The early-1950s was mostly due to a lack of young talent and machinery (thanks to WWII) and limited lower formulae.

While there were a few young drivers who broke though at around 20-21 (Bruce McLaren, Ricardo Rodriguez, Emmerson Fittipaldi, Mike Thackwell, Michael Schumacher, Rubens Barrichello), it didn't really become a regular trend to shop for potential teenage talent until Jenson Button broke though in 2000.

Teams now seem to think you're a no-hoper if you're trying to get into F1 at 26...

 

[zippy_the_cat]

Coincidentally, being too tall is a handicap in special forces work, too. Easier to hit.

That actually depends on what the job is. The guys carrying the squad or platoon's heavy weapons will generally be of large build.

Another example we could throw in there would be astronauts. The first US group were, by the screening criteria, shrimps, and had to be to fit in the capsule. The criteria were relaxed as vehicles got larger but, other things being equal, it's still better for a candidate to be on the smallish side.

Edit: To be fair, the astronaut point was truer of the Russians at the time. Gagarin was 5-2. The smallest of the original US astronauts, Grissom, was 5-7. The hard limits for the first pool of US applicants were 5-11 and 180 lbs.

 

[Ardius]

Well, there was a time in F1 when most new drivers were in the age range of 24-28...most of the 1950s-1990s, in fact. The early-1950s was mostly due to a lack of young talent and machinery (thanks to WWII) and limited lower formulae.

While there were a few young drivers who broke though at around 20-21 (Bruce McLaren, Ricardo Rodriguez, Emmerson Fittipaldi, Mike Thackwell, Michael Schumacher, Rubens Barrichello), it didn't really become a regular trend to shop for potential teenage talent until Jenson Button broke though in 2000.

Teams now seem to think you're a no-hoper if you're trying to get into F1 at 26...

Pastor Maldonado (26), Giedo van der Garde (28), Charles Pic (22), Valtteri Bottas (23), Adrian Sutil (24), Paul di Resta (25), Vitaly Petrov (25), Jerome d'Ambrosio (25), Bruno Senna (26), Karun Chandhok (26), Lucas di Grassi (26), Sakon Yamamoto (24).

It could be argued a lot of these are pay drivers/no-hopers, but certainly the average age of rookies isn't as ridiculously young as people might think. Certainly some of them got several chances with respectable teams.

 

[zippy_the_cat]

Pastor Maldonado (26), Giedo van der Garde (28), Charles Pic (22), Valtteri Bottas (23), Adrian Sutil (24), Paul di Resta (25), Vitaly Petrov (25), Jerome d'Ambrosio (25), Bruno Senna (26), Karun Chandhok (26), Lucas di Grassi (26), Sakon Yamamoto (24).

It could be argued a lot of these are pay drivers/no-hopers, but certainly the average age of rookies isn't as ridiculously young as people might think. Certainly some of them got several chances with respectable teams.

No quarrel with this but it does seem clear from other sports that if a guy makes the top level at a young age and sticks he'll most likely be an above-average performer throughout his career, and if he makes the top level and stars from a young age he's a good bet to become an all-time great. "Young age" meaning late teens or early 20s. Flip side of the observation is that guys who make it to the top level in their mid-20s will be average performers, solid professionals who maybe have a couple of standout years and provide a few memorable moments but otherwise don't fill up the trophy case.

Of the group you mentioned I suspect Bottas is the only one who will stick. Probably a solid points man with a good team, maybe a WDC contender with a very good car, but would have to get lucky to win one. Pic only lasts as long as his sponsor's money.

 

[DK]

According to Eric Boullier, Lotus are prepared to hire Hulkenberg for 2014. [BBC]

 

[Wardez]

Hopefully he doesn't go from one team that can't pay him to another.

He may be cursed though, and this is very possible, what if next year he goes to Lotus and they suck, then Sauber uses their Russian money and better Ferrari engine to move their way back into a solid top 4 team?

Would be a move akin to his step from FI to Sauber in their state in the first two thirds of this season.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

So why does F1 Stats have Sergey racing for Sauber in 2014, have I missed something?

 

[Samus]

So why does F1 Stats have Sergey racing for Sauber in 2014, have I missed something?

Yeah, Monisha has said he's got the drive provided he gets his super license.

http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/1...ber-next-year-if-he-obtains-his-super-licence

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Yeah, Monisha has said he's got the drive provided he gets his super license.

http://www1.skysports.com/f1/news/1...ber-next-year-if-he-obtains-his-super-licence

I know that already and I think I originally linked it or tree'd, but no one has confirmed, at least from what I've seen if he has it yet. So it doesn't make sense to confirm it when you could easily just do TBA or TBC.

 

[Samus]

Isn't confirmation from the team principle enough? So long as he gets the license he will be in the seat.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Isn't confirmation from the team principle enough? So long as he gets the license he will be in the seat.

But he doesn't have it yet and there is no absolution that he will or has. That is my issue.

 

[Samus]

Right now he has the seat and will be driving next year. The only thing to change that is if he doesn't get the super license.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Right now he has the seat and will be driving next year. The only thing to change that is if he doesn't get the super license.

Other way around, if completes task 1 he'll be allowed to do task 2. Thus he doesn't have the seat yet. I'm just saying when all the t's are crossed and the i's are dotted then make it official, it still falls under tbc, I'm just knit picking cause I don't like that kind of stuff.

 

[Imari]

Other way around, if completes task 1 he'll be allowed to do task 2. Thus he doesn't have the seat yet. I'm just saying when all the t's are crossed and the i's are dotted then make it official, it still falls under tbc, I'm just knit picking cause I don't like that kind of stuff.

Depends how strict you think they're going to be on the super license. If you read some articles they make it sound like all he has to do is get some mileage in an F1 car, if you read others he needs to basically win Renault F3.5.

Frankly, I think he'll be in some test sessions and probably even the early season testing runs regardless. If he proves to be at least inside the 107% and not a complete lunatic, he'll probably get the license. Because F1 is better off not trying to hamstring a struggling team.

 

[Samus]

To qualify for an FIA Super Licence the requesting driver must already be the holder of a Grade A competition licence, and additionally meet the requirements of the 2013 FIA International Sporting Code, Appendix L.[1][2] These requirements state that the driver must be either the reigning champion in a lower category of motor sport, for example Formula 3 (British, Italian or Japanese championship, or Euro Series), Formula 2, or GP2 Series (formerly known as Formula 3000), or must have consistently finished well in these categories. For example, a driver finishing in the first three positions five times within the last two years in GP2 will be eligible for a Super Licence.

They then have to do 300km in an F1 car. So going by that he's going to need to convince the FIA that his performances in Auto GP were at a high enough level because he doesn't have the results in F3.5.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

Depends how strict you think they're going to be on the super license. If you read some articles they make it sound like all he has to do is get some mileage in an F1 car, if you read others he needs to basically win Renault F3.5.

Frankly, I think he'll be in some test sessions and probably even the early season testing runs regardless. If he proves to be at least inside the 107% and not a complete lunatic, he'll probably get the license. Because F1 is better off not trying to hamstring a struggling team.

Like F1 cares, don't get me wrong it would suck if a old team like Sauber died off because this guy was their last resort. I doubt if FOM would care if another old world team died, I mean there are only a handful left (obviously).

 

[Carbonox]

Another note about Sirotkin, now that I remember it, is that there's a much more talented Russian fighting for the GP3 title right now, by the name of Daniil Kvyat...

 

[Pupik]

Like F1 cares, don't get me wrong it would suck if a old team like Sauber died off because this guy was their last resort. I doubt if FOM would care if another old world team died, I mean there are only a handful left (obviously).

They didn't seem to care when Brabham wanted some fellow named Akihiko Nakaya (spelling?), but that was in '92, when they didn't have a 300/500km testing threshold to bypass the Superlicense requirement. I think Estaban Tuero was the first one to get that dispensation, six years later. So there's precedence both ways.

Look at it this way, the Superlicense snub brought about Giovanna Amati, who then paved the way for some chap named Damon Hill...just before Brabham became another famous marque to disappear from the paddock.

 

[Imari]

Like F1 cares, don't get me wrong it would suck if a old team like Sauber died off because this guy was their last resort. I doubt if FOM would care if another old world team died, I mean there are only a handful left (obviously).

I mean in terms of F1 as a commercial entity selling entertainment. They lost HRT last year, and I don't see lots of other teams lining up to take their place. Without enough teams, the show suffers.

Certainly, one team gone doesn't really matter. But Sauber has a history and fans. If you lose Sauber, and then maybe next year they let Williams die because they're obviously struggling for funds too, and then maybe Caterham or Marussia call it a day, and suddenly the grid starts to look pretty sparse.

I think some care needs to be taken not to drive the "little" teams out of the sport. There's only so many major manufacturers and energy drink companies that are willing to simply throw money at a team.

 

[LMSCorvetteGT2]

They didn't seem to care when Brabham wanted some fellow named Akihiko Nakaya (spelling?), but that was in '92, when they didn't have a 300/500km testing threshold to bypass the Superlicense requirement. I think Estaban Tuero was the first one to get that dispensation, six years later. So there's precedence both ways.

Look at it this way, the Superlicense snub brought about Giovanna Amati, who then paved the way for some chap named Damon Hill...just before Brabham became another famous marque to disappear from the paddock.

You make a great point.

I mean in terms of F1 as a commercial entity selling entertainment. They lost HRT last year, and I don't see lots of other teams lining up to take their place. Without enough teams, the show suffers.

Certainly, one team gone doesn't really matter. But Sauber has a history and fans. If you lose Sauber, and then maybe next year they let Williams die because they're obviously struggling for funds too, and then maybe Caterham or Marussia call it a day, and suddenly the grid starts to look pretty sparse.

I think some care needs to be taken not to drive the "little" teams out of the sport. There's only so many major manufacturers and energy drink companies that are willing to simply throw money at a team.

I agree, but I think the bigger issues come along with why these guys can't make it. And why bigger names dont wanna be in it. We already know what that is.

 

[sems4arsenal]

@Dany_Kvyat will join @jeanericvergne in the Toro Rosso 2014 driver line-up! http://fb.me/2eBdBtUPh

No Da Costa then

 

[SilverArrow]

Definitely didn't see that coming...

 

[Jimlaad43]

Definitely didn't see that coming...

No-one did.

 

[Northstar]

From his Wikipedia page.

Daniil will drive for Toro Rosso in 2014. LulWAT.

 

[GOTMAXPOWER]

I'm so happy Kvyat has got the drive. He has been incredible for the second half of this year whilst AFDC has been unspectacular.

 

[SilverArrow]

I'm so happy Kvyat has got the drive. He has been incredible for the second half of this year whilst AFDC has been unspectacular.

His car consistently braking down has made sure of that.

 

[GOTMAXPOWER]

His car consistently braking down has made sure of that.

Even when his car isn't breaking down he has been slower than the McLaren juniors, not really F1 material given how competitive the market is for non-paying drivers.

 

[SilverArrow]

Even when his car isn't breaking down he has been slower than the McLaren juniors, not really F1 material given how competitive the market is for non-paying drivers.

So his performances in FR 3.5 last year mean absolutely nothing?

 

[GOTMAXPOWER]

So his performances in FR 3.5 last year mean absolutely nothing?

Of course they mean something but they would've meant an awful lot more had he been able to carry the form over to this year. The expectation on him was to walk the season and he hasn't done it, you can blame reliability but even when the car was working well the McLaren rookies have simply done a better job.

 

[SilverArrow]

Of course they mean something but they would've meant an awful lot more had he been able to carry the form over to this year. The expectation on him was to walk the season and he hasn't done it, you can blame reliability but even when the car was working well the McLaren rookies have simply done a better job.

But he wasn't competing for a STR seat with Magnussen or Vandorne, just with the other Red Bull juniors. I think Kvyat's a better driver than Sainz but he's not better than Da Costa. He's got less experience, not achieved any more and hasn't even raced in world series to say he's a better driver than Antonio. What proof is there to say he'd have done better than him in any series?