This whole episode is very puzzling.
What does Hamas expect out of this? They, I assume, are a largely rational, if extreme group. And no, before you write off Hamas as as simply an irrational terrorist organization, they are also (badly) running a country. They reach the bar for a rational if ideological actor. They wouldn't plan something like this without at least considering the response. And what other scenario could they expect other than making a lot of noise and then getting absolutely ****ing hammered in retaliation. So did they plan this operation in order to accelerate their own demise and nothing else? It just seems implausible.
So who needs this conflict that Palestinians definitely do not?
It's good for Bibi, because he now has a righteous opportunity to conquer at least all of Gaza and put to bed the two-state solution which would see him become basically a mythical figure in the Orthodox community, let alone his own world view. Destroying the Palestinians seems like a life long dream for him, so this is nothing but good news here. So a few thousand Israelis may die, I struggle to see him caring. This is some old testament **** for Netanyahu. Israel does not have expansive borders and guarding the small borders they have is a full time focus for Israeli's security forces. It's basically unbelievable that this happened. However, it strains logic to think that Hamas would do this in some kind of coordination with Bibi, because the only outcome possible was massive retaliation.
It's good for Putin, particularly if the conflict escalates. The US has already sent a carrier group to, at least optics-wise, lend support for Israel. And if the conflict escalates and Israel genuinely needs help, there is zero question in my mind that the US will be there with boots on the ground if needed. Its a huge distraction from Ukraine who is only recently been close with the US. Israel is like a ride together, die together homeboy for life. Israel is already asking for weapons.
It's good for Iran and the IRGC who desperately, desperately need some kind of distraction for domestic issues that are once again boiling over. The Ayatollah's base is smaller and less enthusiastic than it used to be, a conflict with the Islamic Republic's arch foe could plausibly excite them to defend the mullahs at home. The other thing it helpfully does is set back the growing diplomatic ties between Saudi Arabia and Israel which would see Iran increasingly reduced in regional stature, which would be devastating for the ruling class.
My bet is that this was essentially orchestrated by Russia & Iran as a huge smoke screen with multiple objectives and they have each pledged Hamas some kind of hollow incentive...and I suspect that Netanyahu saw it coming and decided the benefits of letting it happen outweighed the costs.
Russia doesn't care about Hamas other than their utility as a distraction
Netanyahu cares a lot about destroying Hamas but is hemmed in by international community from just stomping them out
Iran cares about Hamas as far as Hamas is the enemy of it's enemy and any sustained conflict hurts the normalization of ties between Israel and the Arab world.
Russia needs Iran to help supply them for their war against Ukraine
Iran needs Russia to help them survive domestic and international pressure
Iran gets to hurt Saudi Arabia indirectly and doesn't really care about the outcome for Hamas & the Palestinians. The messier it gets, the better it is for Iran
Russia gets a distraction indirectly by way of western support for Israel, and doesn't give a **** about the outcome for Hamas & the Palestinians
Netanyahu gets to end Palestine.
There's a lot of overlapping and seemingly contradictory motivations here, but I think there is a tacit, if unspoken acceptance that this benefits all three parties.
The losers here, of course, are the Palestinian people and the Israeli people to a lesser extent.
