To me it looks like Caterham will retain Petrov for 2013.
Giedo van der Garde appears to be the favourite for the second Caterham seat. Which will be a massive step backwards for the team; they might have the raw pace to stay in front of Marussia, but as the Singapore Grand Prix proved, one hectic race can swing the balance of power and the speed deficit will count for very little. Caterham need someone experienced who can develop their car, but at the same time, they might be using the CT-01 again next year because the rules have not changed very much.
As for Petrov's fate, I've heard that he could be going to Williams next year to replace Pastor Maldonado. Maldonado would go to Lotus, taking Grosjean's seat. Where Grosjean winds up is never is never quite made clear. This whole scenario makes very little sense, but Grosjean's reputation seems to be the driving force behind it. He's got a few podiums, but sponsors might see him as a liability. I've heard that Total want to support a French driver, but they aren't happy with Grosjean's tendency to crash into anything that moves, and so are jumping ship to Caterham to support Charles Pic. This would leave Lotus without a fuel partner, paving the way for PDVSA to join the team, courtesy of Maldonado. Although Maldonado has a poor reputation as well, he's kept his nose clean for six or seven races so far, and his win in Spain will be a drawcard for any sponsor. Coca-Cola's investment in the team through the Burn brand would also put less financial pressure on PDVSA.
I know that Eric Boullier and Lotus keep piling praise and reassurance of a drive on Grosjean, but this is nothing new for them. They didn't cut Vitaly Petrov loose until they knew they had Kimi Raikkonen on-board for 2012, and they were expressing their satisfaction with Petrov and Senna right up to the moment they let both of them go. They evidently wanted to hold onto their drivers until they knew they had their first two choices. It wouldn't surprise me if they do this again with Grosjean.
So Total goes to Caterham with Pic, PDVSA goes to Lotus with Maldonado, and Grosjean goes into limbo. Petrov would then join Williams, even though he's run out of sponsorship from the Russian government. Joining Williams would probably require some kind of funding, and I have no idea where he might get it. Having said that, the President of Kazakhstan was spotted in the Abu Dhabi paddock and no-one seems to know what he was doing there because he's apparently never been interested in Formula 1 and there doesn't seem to have been any record of him doing anything else in Abu Dhabi. He was tipped to be looking at sponsoring HRT, because he controls the Astana Group - an umbrella corporation that represents the interests of all enterprises owned and operated by the Kazakhstan government - and Astana sponsor Daniel Juncadella in Formula 3. Since there are no Kazakh drivers, they're evidently not too picky about who they back, but supporting a Russian driver could be seen as a way to increase tourism to Kazakhstan from their nearest and largest neighbour, Kazakhstan. Of course, the President could have been there to shore up a deal with Sauber and Chelsea, who both say they have a big-name sponsor on-board for 2013 (and Astana sponsor a cycling team as well as Formula 3 cars, so maybe they'll invest in a football club as well).
, but it will be ok if he gets into Q3 and top 10's regularly
