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I don't see Hulkenburg leaving Sauber, mainly because he's there best driver and I doubt he'll be on any other teams' radar. He's been really mediocre this year, I know the car is poor but he's hardly been driving the wheels off it like Bianchi.
Out of those two you mentioned, I'd say Kamui is most likely for the seat. Bianchi couldn't really move anywhere.
Caterham would be pointless, STR is a no-no, Sauber, no due to Hulkenburg not likely to move and the Russian kid probably coming in next year. FI, maybe if Di Resta moves on, but as with Hulkenburg I doubt he'll be moving anywhere, his performances this year have been the best I've seen from him but I'm not a team owner. Williams I doubt he'll go to after their performances. That leaves Lotus. Kimi is most likely to go to RBR so they could bring Bianchi up but they don't have any ties with Ferrari and I doubt they'd be pleased about that.
I wouldn't say that Hulkenburg is at fault the car is a dog, and the only reason there are points to it is due to him. Esteban doesn't stand a chance for the remainder I think, and we still have plenty of races to go for Hulkenburg to try and push the car further. With the new tires the car may improve but who knows. I still say Kimi and Daniel are equal on the list, I think Tost and maybe Marko are pushing for him while Mateschitz and Horner want Kimi along with Vettel. Newey has worked with Kimi before so that is helpful too.
Either way I mainly agree with you.
Hulk would do very well in a top team. He's definitely on the radar. He's just had so much back luck falling into teams at the wrong time. I really hope he gets a better chance.
About Kimi, you guys gotta realize that a lot of this stuff is posturing. These rumors and such work to the advantage of different teams' interest. All gamemanship.
For example, by Ferrari "offering" this seat to Kimi publicly, they will raise Kimi's price by demand. They've been at this game more than long enough.
Alonso's effectively trying to get Ferrari to step up their game, and at the same time raising his own price, by talking about wanting another car and such. It's a market through and through. Ferrari's just reacting to everything.
Wardez makes an excellent point that I didn't factor in.