Now don't get me wrong TD, so of what you put forward is a strong case, I just happen to believe its still he weaker of the two cases, GT6 on the PS3 followed by GT7 on the PS4 a year or two down the line just makes sense in far more ways to me.
It may make more sense from a pure money perspective, which publishers do work on the basis of. It probably makes more sense from a fanbase perspective, as the PS3 install base is quite large now. And the PS3 may be an antique in technical terms, but it's an HD antique still capable of amazing graphics and gameplay. I'll continue with this in a sec.
I think (GT6 on both systems) would cause more confusion than it solved and still think the most sensible route is GT6 on the PS3 and GT7 a year or two down the line on the PS4. That way you maximise the user base on the PS3 (not all of whom are going to move to the PS4 straight away) and allow a userbase to build on the PS4 (which is needed if you want the sales numbers a GT title demands).
I think the reaction would probably be more like consternation. Fans of PS4 would be asking why SONY was diluting sales of the game on a stronger system, where it would shine brightest and push more PS4 sales. PS3 fans would be complaining that the far superior game was released at the same time, and they couldn't enjoy it for some time. I think it's a weird idea too, but a number of posters here want it so I thought I'd include it in the speculation.
A two year span is normally a little soon, considering how well Gran Turismo games sell over time, but in this case I agree with you. GT fans will be clamoring for GT7 on PS4 when they see the quality of games in all categories on both PS4 and MS's new Box.
I know there's a pretty solid divide between fans of both release types, and the pros and cons of both have been well presented for the most part. But then there's the matter of the game itself, and what it would mean in both formats.
I've just come down from another night of GT5 racing on tracks I made in the Course Maker, using Arcade Mode as my own private event generator. And even with bots that on the one hand drive like little kids, and get Dale Earnhardt aggressive on the other, I had a blast and recorded a lot of replays for Photo Mode fodder. The dumb things still vex me, like the weird bot A.I. and the way they give up if you get any distance at all ahead of them, the goofy paint chip system which often means I need to buy a car just to get the color I want in the paint shop, and other head scratchers. But the dumb things only matter for a moment here and there, and are (mostly) forgotten as I make another fight for first place in a car that's a joy to drive.
And I realize that a "GT5.5" can still be an incredible game. Drop the dumb XP system, and the annoying paint chips with the possible exception of special goody colors. Make the bots seem more human and challenging. Give us a Livery Editor, and make Race Mod universal, or almost so. Improve the Course Maker. If B-Spec returns, and it most likely will, improve it and make it a part of the whole game, not off in its own separate mode. If Standard cars and tracks return, and tracks are quite possible, then tidy them up to the point they look almost as good as the Premiums. Allow us to adjust the driver views to suit us, and save them. Give us weather and time of day settings on all tracks, including night racing, and include realistic weather effects like puddling and evaporation. Endow it with a decent damage system, hopefully one as spectacular as the one Codemasters created. Give us a Season Mode, hopefully a GT Academy-like Career Mode path to pro racing, and an Event Maker with powerful tools for not just making events for fun, but with club and league builder tools for online play. And give us a LOT of events like they did in GT4. I played that game for almost 14 months straight because there was so much to do, and I never did finish it.
None of that would require the technology of PS4 to accomplish. I hope, a good damage build might. Other things would, like the Movie Maker, and my HD Course Maker with features like the one in ModNation Racers. The lighting system, such as in night racing, would benefit a lot from PS4's ability to render lighting and reflections much better. Physics and bot A.I. would be better, with the bountiful resources of the AMD architecture and all that fast ram. No more loading screens, except briefly. Online capacity would be godly, with spectating, large rooms, large races and other features made possible with the new internet infrastructure SONY is building. I'm particularly keen on getting photos of huge race fields running to the horizon.
But most of that would be doable on PS3. I could enjoy the heck out of a proper GT game on PS3, and it wouldn't be just GT5 warmed over. I'd squirm every time I fired up my PS4, hoping that news of GT7 would be coming along soon, but I'd have some great gaming to occupy myself until then. Yeah... that would be good.